Phillies: Double-edged surprises
While the Phillies’ season is brand-new, the first answers are in the offing for roster usage and the numerical-based approach of general manager Matt Klentak.
Consequential revelations:
For the Philadelphia Phillies, the steps from the front office to the dugout are the shortest distance in the majors. But this campaign designed by the GM with his skipper’s input will produce outcomes, good and bad, and some will hopefully be infrequent.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The future can ever promise but one thing and one thing only: surprises.” – Steven Erikson
As the franchise welcomes the numerical future, they now have amassed one of the largest analytical departments in the major leagues. But keep in mind, execs point to the success of the Houston Astros and the Los Angeles Dodgers as proof of their statistical faith: a positive.
Early on, Kapler floated the idea of nine relievers with three alternate hurlers from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. In other words, fresh arms would replace the overused pitchers. The manager’s approach, however, is one without defined bullpen roles — asking for trouble?
Supposedly, three starters won’t face the opposition more than two turns through the lineup: Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta, and Ben Lively. Ergo, matchup baseball.
Offensively, the infield is Carlos Santana and competition for playing time between Cesar Hernandez, J.P. Crawford, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery. And while Rhys Hoskins is the primary outfield regular, Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr and Nick Williams will share center and right field: Production equals stats for more at-bats.
On the bench, the red pinstripes will frequently employ a left-right combination for pinch-hitting from an outfielder and an infielder, and they’ll have a backup catcher plus one defensive replacement. So, the club with 13 moundsmen, eight regulars, and a reserve backstop has only three other players who can come off the pine.
On a Phillies site, the Opening Day disappointment was basically the only topic of conversation. To illustrate, the faithful were unhappy about Kapler’s decision to take out Aaron Nola in the sixth after only 68 pitches. Nola was dominating the Atlanta Braves, and his early removal will add pressure to the other starters.
Analytical revenge:
Regarding the fan’s view of Kapler, he defended his move and indicated no reason to do it differently. The next night, he stated he couldn’t use the entire pen daily. But his initial comments got his Phillies tenure off to a rocky start with all locals, not just the boobirds. Ergo, they promised they’ll give him an earful during his home-opener introduction, if necessary.
WORDS OF WISDOM: “The head thinks. The heart knows.” – Rasheed Ogunlaru
As for the defensive replacement of Hoskins, some condemned taking out the slugger for two frames of improved fielding. However, others reminded them of the 5-2 score with six outs to go and blamed the bullpen.
Many fans believe baseball is only about the numbers, and sabermetrics has all the answers. Yes, they think team chemistry is just winning, and only stats are responsible for victories. But more than one poster stated Pete wouldn’t have done that.
Although the relief corps had mixed results in the first two contests, the run production was enough for two victories. Additionally, Kingery made his MLB debut at the hot corner, got two hits, demonstrated his speed, and replaced Franco who had walked twice on Opening Day: a step in the right direction.
On the other hand, Kapler’s plan for extra innings is minimal because he only had Thompson in the pen and no one on the bench after 10 frames. Apparently, his strategy is that games of 12 innings or more will probably be rare.
Pitching management:
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As for bullpen usage, the skipper employed eight relievers including five twice: 10 1/3 innings from the pen and 9 1/3 frames from the starting staff. But the problem is that decent relievers have one bad outing out of every five; unfortunately, five of 13 appearances in Atlanta were difficult: adding to the pressure. No bullpen rotation?
With a starting staff of three five-inning moundsman, the two horses need to provide seven frames, if possible. Jake Arrieta and Nola must give the relief corps a breather, or they will burn out. Therefore, the numbers then will have less value.
Granted, the current school of thought is hitters facing a starter for the third time are considerably more productive. But four innings each out of Velasquez, Pivetta, and Lively is equal to 15 frames from the pen. The old math!
IN CONTRAST: “Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.” – Mark Twain
If Kapler only goes by analytics and was offering lip service on the traditional side of his spiel, we’re in for one-dimensional baseball. So far, it’s only one what? Loss?
Next: Phillies vs. NL West wild-card hopefuls
Behind the front-office doors, two assistants to the GM–last year’s manager and bench coach–will have plenty to say to Klentak. Well, the Phillies invested $159 million for Arrieta, Santana, and Kingery. What is that whisper? Money talking!