Are the Philadelphia Phillies woes the fault of Gabe Kapler, including their approach at the plate?
Writing about Philadelphia Phillies manager Gabe Kapler‘s reprimand by MLB for a bullpen SNAFU was suggested by one of our fine editors at Call to the Pen, but I found the notion depressing. First, with only three games in the books, Kapler has been so brutalized figuratively by Philly talk radio, regular sports scribes, and fans on social media that he is currently bleeding real blood.
Second, what is there to say? He made a rookie manager’s mistake. He called a relief pitcher who hadn’t warmed up into the March 31 game against Atlanta, and it was up to the umpiring crew to make sure that pitcher didn’t injure himself. Kapler later took responsibility, and perhaps protected someone on his staff who should have told Hoby Milner to warm up or at least remind him to do that.
Sometimes it’s best to call something a brain cramp and move on. In this case, someone generous might hope the new manager doesn’t elevate himself to the Sports Brain Cramp Hall of Fame alongside Jim Marshall, Chris Webber, and Barry Bonds.
Is he already the worst manager in the history of baseball?
Is Kapler arguably doing anything right? It may well be that he is. After the Phillies first three contests Corey Seidman of NBC Sports Philly put together a list of 10 “interesting” stats. The first of these was that the Phillies had four of the top seven NL batters in pitches seen per plate appearance. Can this be tied to the influence of the new manager?
Common sense suggests that the more pitches a batter sees, the better the chance he has to encounter one he can drive. Seeing lots of pitches is one of leftfielder Rhys Hoskins’ virtues and ostensibly one reason the Phillies brought in Carlos Santana despite his less than impressive career batting average (.249). In over nine years Santana has posted a .365 OBP; in much less time, Hoskins has a .406 figure (before play Apr. 3).
Following that unhappy opening series in Atlanta, Kapler expressed approval of the number of pitches his batters were seeing. His mantra of “prepare, prepare, prepare” and the hunt for “value at the margins” is translating at least in this way. As Seidman noted, the current, early Phillies rate of 4.30 pitches per plate appearance translates to 15-20 more pitches per game than they saw last year when the rate was 3.93. If nothing else, if this keeps up, opponent pitchers will be a little more tired at the end of a series against the Phillies.
On to New York
The Phillies fourth game, against the Mets, had been postponed by snow. Would Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco be in the lineup? Both have been prone to lose focus at the plate, and neither was off to a quick start in Atlanta.
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As it turned out, only Herrera was starting in Queens Apr. 3. Further and unfortunately, it was cold and drizzly, and that would seem an incentive to pick an early pitch to hit. In any event, Phillies broadcaster John Kruk claimed he used to think that way about five seconds after the first batter (Aaron Altherr) came to the plate wearing one of those goofy baseball hoodies under his batting helmet.
As though to verify that, the three Phillies batting in the first inning saw a total of ten pitches, nearly a full pitch per plate appearance below their “season” average.
I wonder if Elias has an algorithm yet that adjusts for temperature as related to plate appearance patience. Add 0.1 pitch for each degree Fahrenheit below 40? Anyway, it was bound to become colder as the night went on, and even if every pitch were counted, the sample size would still be pretty small.
After three innings, however, 11 Phillies batters had seen 54 pitches or 4.91 per plate appearance! Herrera saw five pitches but popped up to third. Scott Kingery saw seven but struck out swinging. Two other batters saw seven pitches.
Next: Are the Phills killing starters or relievers?
Hoskins had a single to right on the fourth pitch he saw. This was the only traditionally positive offensive note. However, small sample analytics say the Phillies are a patient crew, even when freezing, and perhaps Kapler deserves credit for that.
There was no score in the game.