Phillies manager Gabe Kapler has problems extending beyond their 1-4 start to the season.
Gabe Kapler and the Philadelphia Phillies need to be aware of something, specifically an old joke once widely known but usually not shared in what was once called a mixed company. The punch line to this jest was used publicly by a politician recently, but this story would now also be considered politically incorrect by some even outside of the company of women. The punchline to the joke is: “It’s your turn in the barrel,” and if that doesn’t ring a bell for some younger people, just take my word: being in the barrel is not good.
The point here is it’s currently Gabe Kapler’s turn in the barrel, at least until he turns around the 1-4 Phillies. The team is scheduled to play its first home game Apr. 5. Kapler will be in the barrel until his team starts winning simply because he coaches in Philadelphia.
However, even if the Phillies rip off four wins in a row, the first year manager has two issues he may well not recognize that could keep him in the barrel.
The first is Kapler could be underestimating local folks, especially the very fine crew of writers at Philly.com, as well as many fans, if he thinks his analytical decisions that backfire won’t instantly be identified.
This has happened two days in a row, following both games against the New York Mets. In the first game, the Phillies couldn’t turn a double play because of an “aggressive” infield shift pointed out by writer Matt Breen (the print headline in the Philadelphia Inquirer was “Analyze this: Phils lose again”).
On Apr. 4 analytics failed the team again as Coach Chris Young positioned right fielder Nick WIlliams in a softball shortfielder’s position against Amed Rosario, a Mets slap hitter. Rosario promptly ripped a triple over Williams’ head that didn’t even land on the warning track. Breen also noted this as did everybody else watching at Citi Field and on Facebook, even people distracted by puppy videos.
(This Facebook broadcast business is a story for another day.)
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The second problem for Kapler relates to such moves backfiring. No number of confident pronouncements about these moves working out, in the long run, will suffice unless they do. And that means 10 games over .500 is pretty much the bar to reach. As Bob Brookover wrote, “Everything, according to Kapler, will get better in time.” Philadelphians understand that sentence to be a matter of understated sarcasm.
Kapler said of Rosario, “We were anticipating weaker contact.” Gabe, nobody cares what you thought would happen. Just say, “We were wrong.” The capital-P Pronouncements are already becoming unbearable. This is the full text of Kapler’s defense of moving Williams 52 feet closer to home plate than the average right fielder plays at Citi Field:
"“I trust C.Y. [Young]. Nobody studies harder about where the most likely position is going to be for the ball to hit, so I trust our positioning right there. We go over it and recheck it constantly. We’re optimizing for the ball in front of us. There are going to be a number of times when the ball is hit right at our guy in right field and there are also going to be a number of times when he takes away a ball in front of him that we wouldn’t have caught otherwise. Some of these moves have not worked out in the short term. In the long term, we are very confident they will work out.”"
Next: Gabe Kapler overthinks Opener
People are already sticking fingers in their ears and chanting, “Nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah….”