Yankees minor league baseball begins today with a prospect preview

The Yankees upper-level minor league clubs almost all begin play today. While the farm system has changed, it still features top-tier talent spread throughout their four highest levels.

The Yankees farm is not what it used to be. But assembling a championship-caliber club means shifting as much talent as possible from the minors to the majors. That’s a good trade-off to be sure. It creates a drain on the minor league system, though, and this season will see the effects.

Today three of the top four levels of the Yankees minor league system start play. And after all the winter wheeling and dealing, we finally get a look at what is left at the top of the order.

That does not mean there is not still top-tier talent in the system; there absolutely is. There are several big differences from recent seasons, however. And the most significant is that the best players now are almost all pitchers.

That’s a shift that should not be underestimated.

Position players are easier to project than pitchers with a far higher rate of success. And even if they develop into frontline starters, pitchers are far more susceptible to injuries.

That makes systems in which most of the top talent consists of pitchers not nearly as strong as those that feature position players.

Realistic Expectations

That makes it a huge mistake to look at the Yankees large number of highly ranked pitching prospects and think even a majority will develop into contributing starters. The best the team can hope for is to find one real front-line starter, one back end, and a bunch of quality bullpen arms.

Remember that the Yankees developed only two notable stud pitchers in the last 30 years: Andy Pettitte and Luis Severino. They did mold a couple of more starters who were ended up plying their trades in other towns, guys such as Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes.

Still, that list is pretty short.

If the pitchers projected to arrive in the next two to three years can produce that crop, the system will be a huge success. Keep that in mind as we try to see who, if anyone, will be the next Severino, the next Montgomery, and the next Betances.

The point is that, even though the Yankees system is still ranked as high as second by some if not many, and does have some strong talent, it is not nearly as deep as it was just one year ago.

Which leads to the second big difference: The talent in the system is now dispersed asymmetrically. There are a few excellent prospects at Scranton, fewer in Trenton and Tampa, but another plethora in Charleston.

Perhaps the best way to visualize it is to draw an hourglass. You can see it is wide at the top and the bottom, but only a narrow band in the middle; that is how the talent is dispersed in these four levels.

It’s Always Something

Two quick notes before we start our first prospect preview: As only the highest four levels are starting play, we are only g,oing to look at players at those levels. That means no Luis Medina, Nolan Martinez, or Everson Pereira;, sorry Corky.

And second is that the rosters for these clubs have changed quite a bit over the last three days. That has created some struggles. For instance, just today the Yanks added both Nolan Martinez (DL) and Danienger Perez to the RiverDogs, too late for me to write them up.

And they just added Isiah Gilliam to Tampa’s roster, too late to be covered.

But that does not mean there aren’t plenty of prospects both known and not. And we’ll start right at the top: Triple-A Scranton.

Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Scranton is the only one of these four teams that will start its season on Friday, but it holds the most big league ready talent.

One thing that unites all the levels of the system is promising pitching. But, in the biggest sign of talent drain, it is the starting pitching at this level that has the lowest ceiling. And as some of these players are so well known, I will not spend as much time on them.

Take for instance RHP Chance Adams. What more needs to be said? He dominated the minors for the second straight season: 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and only 104 hits in 150 IP.

But he never got so much as a sniff from a Yankees club that was at times desperate for pitching. He stumbled in the spring and is again in Scranton, where he has nothing to prove.

So, is he just a little command and control away from getting his first opportunity to start in the majors? Or is he a reliever? Or is he nothing at all?

It’s all been said before. So, for future players with a similarly well-worn story, I will be far briefer.

Promises, Promises

However, Adams does bring us to one big mark most teams, including the Yankees, look for in a future starter: A high strikeout-to-innings pitched ratio. Only Brian Cashman and the player development staff know what they see that denigrates Adams, but one stat that jumps off the page is his 135 SO in 150 IP.

Previously he was able to better one strikeout per inning, although never overwhelmingly so. But last year against the best competition he has faced he sank below that.

One possible read of that is a pitcher who is dominating less with his pure stuff as he faces better batters, and that his ground balls and pop-ups will be turned into hits and home runs in The MLB.

Either way, it is a stat I looked at a lot when evaluating pitchers with otherwise similar numbers. That, and age at each level. If you are 25 and only at High-A Tampa, you are probably not really in any long-term plans.

Now back to Scranton.

Good but not Great

The stories of both Domingo German and Luis Cessa should be as familiar. Both have already pitched for the Yankees and are the first two names that will be called when replacement starters are needed.

But neither is too highly thought of, German having the higher ceiling. He is, however, only ranked 18th in the Yankees system, behind pitchers who have barely thrown, such as Clarke Schmidt (13) and Deivi Garcia (16). And he just arrived at Scranton, so more seasoning is still required.

That means Cessa is a placeholder at best while German might manage a spot in the rotation, at least until better arms come along. But he and the team would be best served if he could get two or three months in the minors.

That takes care of the “impact” starters at Scranton, at least right now. When we get to Jersey, we’ll see some more familiar faces who will be in Pennsylvania before long.

All that leaves are the true relievers, and here again the talent is untested, mediocre and unpredictable.

Names of Note

J.P. Feyereisen was brought over in the Andrew Miller trade with high hopes, his 1.70 ERA from 2016 doing nothing to diminish those dreams.

But he seemed to struggle more as he climbed the talent ladder, pitching to a 3.53 at Triple-A with only 42 SO in 43 IP. Those would be decent numbers for a starter but not for what is supposed to be a shut-down reliever.

Giovanny Gallegos, meanwhile, acquitted himself well at Scranton last season—2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 28 hits/69 SO in 43 IP—but was not as productive in the Bronx.

His 20 innings there resulted in a decent 22 SO in his 20 innings, but a nasty 4.87 ERA. Those went with his 21 hits, more than one per inning, and WHIP of 1.28. He is not the second coming of Dellin Betances.

And neither is recently signed former Met Oliver Perez. The 36-year old one-time starter has been working out of the pen for the last few years but without much success the last three. He put up a 4.64 last year and has not pitched below a 4.17 since 2014.

That the Yankees just added him for emergency depth shows how thin the pitching talent is at their highest level.

There is a recent addition dark horse candidate, though. The Yankees have been adding and shuffling players just in the last few hours—for instance, INF Cody Asche was brought in from the White Sox for future considerations—and one beneficiary is Raynel Espinal.

And He has Great Taste in Shoes

The 6’3” righty was never considered a real prospect; 2016 saw him post a 4.63 ERA/1.30 WHIP with 65 SO in 70 innings. But Raynel had a great 2017 season, as Lou Dipietro makes clear for the YES Network:

A Baby Bomber since signing as a minor-league free agent in 2012, Espinal had a breakout year in 2017, posting a 1.09 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 74 1/3 innings across three levels; he began the year at Class-A Charleston, moved up to Class-A Advanced Tampa in mid-June, and then a month later advanced to Double-A Trenton, where he finished the season by posting a 0.46 ERA in 19 2/3 innings.

That was good enough to be voted Reliever of the Year by fans, via MiLB.

Still, he’s raw and unproven, but the Yankees can already see they might need additional relievers. Plus, there are two things they love about Espinal: His thin frame coupled with a great downward plane. Together it makes it seem as if he is finishing right on top of the hitter.

Throw and Repeat

One thing he was working on quite a bit in the spring was finishing with consistency. That’s not unusual for tall somewhat gangly pitchers. It seemed as if he was trying to coordinate his back, right arm, and right leg. If he can find a coordinated motion and consistent release point, he could become a powerful weapon out of the pen.

If he does, he will be a good find among the lower ranked prospects, like so many at this level. After the enigmatic Adams, the Yankees sixth-ranked prospect, the next highest rated pitcher is German at 18; Raynel is unrated.

Three of the position players, however, are among the cream of the crop.

Double-A Trenton Thunder

The potential big league talent here is razor thin, but the few here have high upsides. In fact, there is only one stand-out position player: Thairo Estrada.

Some players get worse as they rise through the system, others—such as Estrada—get better.

His line from Staten Island in 2015 (.267/.338/.360) has consistently improved as he has advanced. Estrada put up his best numbers yet last year at Trenton, hitting .301/.353/.392 and shined as one of the toolsiest players in the Arizona Fall League.

He starts the season as the Yankees 10th best prospect and, although he is out of MLB’s Top 100, John Sickels over at MiLB recently posted his 175 Best MLB Prospects for 2018 and rated Thairo 146th.

And here’s what his major league baseball prospect profile says about him:

In 2017, when he challenged for the Double-A Eastern League batting title at age 21,[Estrada] hit .407 in the EL playoffs and ranked as the best shortstop prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Though New York has played him at second and third base to enhance his versatility and to accommodate higher-profile prospects such as Gleyber Torres, there’s no question that Estrada is a big league shortstop. He covers a lot of ground thanks to his smooth actions and keen instincts, and he has the plus arm to make all of the throws. He’s also an asset at second and third base, and he’s athletic enough to handle the outfield if asked.

Estrada is at a point where the only discussion scouts are having is if he is starter or utility infielder at the major league level.

One and Done

Thairo might be reassigned to Scranton as soon as he is done rehabbing from his bullet wounds. After that, it’s only a matter of time before the Yankees get an up-close look at this promising player.

And that’s about it.

Chris Gittens is too inconsistent to be anything but a big bat on the bench maybe someday, and no one else has enough history to warrant real consideration. But I must at least pause to mention one of my favorite minor leaguers, just not talented enough to become a player, and that is Abiatal Avelino.

Avelino has a good bat, but not good enough. His slash from last year speaks volumes .254/.304/.356, especially with the paltry three home runs he hit. He is a good defender but not good enough to overcome his offense. He’s talented, but just not talented enough.

But every report I have ever read and every inning I have seen him play marks Abiatal as a player who plays hard all the time and gets the most from his talent. He’s the kind of player you want to see succeed, but sadly in his case probably never will. Avelino will likely climb to Triple-A this year, but that will be his summit.

While that might be true for some of the pitchers also at Trenton, some will end their journeys at an elevated level.

Big and Nasty

First up has to be Domingo Acevedo. If he is going to help the Yankees this year, it will have to be as a reliever. He is still a two-pitch pitcher, which is bad for a starter, but one of those pitches is a 103-mph fastball, which is great for a reliever.

Several players are only starting the season at Trenton; Domingo is certainly one.

Bolstering his credentials is his ninth place ranking in the Yankees system, and spot number 103 on Sickel’s list. If I were going to bank on the next long-term fire-baller out of the bullpen a la Betances, my money would be on Acevedo.

Not that he doesn’t have some company. The 17th ranked Cody Carroll has two things going for him: One, he is coming off of his best season (2.54 ERA/1.13 WHIP; 89 SO in 67 IP) and, two, he caught manager Aaron Boone’s eye in Spring Training.

Trust is a big factor in bullpen arms and that Carroll has some of Boonie’s already might be a key factor in any call-ups.

Penned Up Yankees

Beyond these, there are two other arms of interest starting the season in Trenton’s pen: Jordan Foley and Jose Mesa jr.

Foley, the big right-hander, has been slowly making his way through the system with just average numbers. But in the last two years, his SO/IP ratio has taken off. Two years ago it was 88/65, while last season saw him strikeout 49 in only 31 innings. That’s a promising trend for a pitcher at Double-A.

And joining him is the just returned Mesa. The Yankees sent this confirmation tweet just a few days ago:

His time there proved that any big league future he has will be out of the pen, as this summary by northjersey.com makes plain:

Mesa Jr. struggled with the Orioles in spring training, allowing five runs in 7.2 innings. With the Yankees, Mesa Jr. did not move past High Class A ball until this past season. In 34.1 innings with Class AA Trenton last season, he excelled with a 0.79 ERA to go with 39 strikeouts. With Class A Tampa in the Florida State League, he posted a 2.72 ERA in 49.2 innings.

I was sorry to see him go and am glad for his return. It seems a fait accompli that Mesa gets a big league bullpen tryout in 2018. And without more starting depth already at Scranton, that is probably true for one of the three standout starters in Trenton, as well.

Which one depends on who has the best first half of 2018.

I Know You

Of course, the most recognizable name is Justus Sheffield. The thick leftie seems to have a full repertoire of pitches but is still refining them, as well as controlling them. His ERA and WHIP from last season—3.12, 1.35—show some good stuff to work with but too many walks.

But the stuff is there. And when healthy, Sheffield is impressive. Here is a write-up from William Boor at MLB.com from last fall:

Justus Sheffield was sent to the Arizona Fall League to make up innings, and he began doing so in dominant fashion on Tuesday night. Sheffield, the Yankees’ No. 4 prospect, yielded just one hit and struck out six over five scoreless frames as he led Scottsdale to a 7-4 win over Mesa on Opening Night. “He was unbelievable,” Billy McKinney said. “That was a lot of fun to watch, that’s for sure. He’s a special talent too, so I’m looking forward to seeing how he does the rest of the Fall League. He’s a lot of fun to watch.”

On to 2018

And one from earlier this spring by the Post’s George King:

Barring an injury or two, Justus Sheffield is ticketed for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre with the idea that at some point in the upcoming season, the 21-year-old left-hander may reach the big leagues. “I think it’s really important that he walked out of there with a lot of confidence because if you had never seen him pitch before and you saw him in that first inning, he would open your eyes. He was special,’’ Boone said.

There are reasons Justus is ranked third in the Yankees system and 48th overall. While he needs more seasoning, how high he rises in 2018 probably depends on the needs of the club in July and August.

The 2019 Yankees will be better off if Sheffield spends this year in the minors; I’m not sure that is true of the 2018 Yankees.

But Not Quite

I am tempted to say the same thing about RHP Dillon Tate, but something tells me he is a step behind Sheffield. Like Adams at Triple-A, Tate is getting more and more difficult to get a read on.

He was the fourth overall pick in 2015 by the Rangers, did poorly with them, and was later acquired by the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran deal. Since his fastball is back to sitting in the mid-nineties, and he seems to have four good pitches. And he, like Justus, also went to the AFL and did well.

But there have been questions about his make-up, and the Yankees don’t seem quite sure of what they have.

His numbers from camp were more than decent (2.25 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, three SO/zero BB) but he only got four innings. And while he is only two spots behind Sheffield in their prospect rankings, he is unranked in either MLB’s top 100 or Sickel’s top 175; Shef is 67th for Sickel. That shows the real disparity between them.

Right now it looks like the Yanks are going to slow-play Tate.

It appears they want to give him some time to see if he can continue to round into a big-league starter in the minors before deciding how to utilize him in the majors, as opposed to rushing him to the pen as they did German last year.

Tate hasn’t taken disruptions well in the past and might not respond to being bounced around. And he needs the work. But before the end of this season, Tate’s future will be clear for him, us and the Yankees.

The same is true for lesser-known Josh Rodgers.

He Might be More Reliable than Tate

The completely unranked Rogers has been moving up in the system consistently every year since being drafted; his career ERA and WHIP (2.80/1.08) provide the reasons. And being a lefty doesn’t hurt, either.

Here’s what Brock Hammond at Pinstripe Alley had to say about him last year:

Despite being unranked on multiple Yankee top prospect lists, left-handed pitcher Josh Rogers is starting to look like a legitimate prospect. There is a lot to like about Rogers. Like Jordan Montgomery, Rogers pitched in big games at a premier collegiate baseball institution, so he’s had experience pitching in front of crowds and against high level competition. Furthermore, Rogers has a prototypical pitcher’s build. He measures at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds. On the mound, Rogers works from a low-three quarter arm slot. He uses a slider as his primary out pitch and a developing changeup to offset his upper-80’s-low-90’s fastball.

From the Man Himself

And this is what Rodgers spoke about his struggles last year and what he expects this season, from an interview with Matt Kardos and Pinstriped Prospects:

For the folks who may not know, the surgery that you had to have was to remove a bone spur from your elbow, is that correct? “Yeah, I had a little bone spur on the tip of my elbow. It had been bothering me for some weeks up there. I feel like it affected me a little bit through the course of those weeks to the point where I just couldn’t do it anymore.” On the flip side of that, where do you think you need to improve the most and get better as you head into 2018? “I think that my body is a big thing and I am really going to be getting after it in the weight room and come into camp in the best shape that I have been in my entire life. Also, as a starter in our organization, the change-up has come a long way for me from two years ago. It has been astronomically different and it has been a huge pitch in my development.”

It is still too early to project Josh. All we can say for now is he can handle the low levels of the minors. But this year, many of the important questions will be answered, and Rodgers will either rise to real prospect status or disappear off the radar.

And that does it for Trenton. The Yanks will advance Estrada eventually to the Bronx, but there are no other such sure things. There is some potential pitching talent here, but no starters are on the fast track.

But there might be one at Tampa who could leapfrog them all.

High-A Tampa Tarpons

Tampa opens with a new name but several returning players. And the newest pitcher might be the best of the bunch.

Jonathan Loaisiga just arrived in South Florida but might not be staying long. The right-hander has already proven a fast riser and might just go on proving it.

Originally signed by the Giants in 2012, the 23-year old Nicaraguan has faced an array of injuries. San Fran had seen enough, or not enough, of him to release him in 2015; the Yankees signed him a year later.

And Jonathan promptly had Tommy John.

But since his return, his stuff has looked electric and his rise meteoric. He started eleven games and put up a paltry 1.38 ERA and 0.61 WHIP, with 33 SO in 32 innings to go with only three walks. Here’s MLB’s scouting report:

While Loaisiga is small and skinny, he has surprising power to his three-pitch repertoire. His quick arm repeatedly generates 93-96 mph fastballs that top out at 98 with life down in the strike zone. His low-80s curveball features a high spin rate and his upper-80s changeup has nice fade, albeit with a bit too much velocity. Loaisiga has a clean delivery that he repeats well, allowing him to work the bottom of the strike zone and issue just three walks in 32 2/3 innings last season. If he winds up in the bullpen, his stuff should add even more power and he could rush through the Minors.

Look Alive

Jonathan looks like he has too live of an arm to keep him buried for long. His strikeout-to-walk ratio either fast tracks him as a starter or super tracks him as a reliever.

That’s why Loaisiga is moving to High-A after only one career start at Low-A Charleston in 2016. It’s also why he is ranked 14th in the Yankees system, ahead of such players as German (18) and Billy McKinney (19).

I will likely write a full review of these levels in late May, as I did last year. It would not be unexpected if Loaisiga were to be pitching at Double-A by then. And he’s not the only real potential future Yankees starter at this level.

A Rapid Riser

Freicer Perez, for instance, has some believing he is the most big league likely starter in the system today. The six-foot-eight, rail-thin right-hander was unheralded when he was signed out of the D.R., but he added weight to his frame and speed to his fastball.

He has three good-to-plus pitches already, his main weapon being his fastball, which occasionally sits at 97. Perez used those weapons effectively during his full season at Low-A last year to post a 2.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

That helped him give up only 96 hits in 124 IP. And it propelled him to being ranked eighth in the Yankees system and 106th by Sickel, three spots behind Acevedo and well ahead of the Red Sox highly thought of LHP Jay Groome (120).

And one notch below those two is RHP Brian Keller. A late round pick back in 2016, Keller had some interesting college highlights, as the Journal Sentinel’s JR Radcliffe makes clear:

Keller, who pitched Germantown into the 2012 state-championship game in the summer baseball season, had a record-setting career at UW-Milwaukee. As a senior in 2016, he…threw three shutouts and four complete games. He set the school record with 103 strikeouts and 107.1 innings of work.

Now, he’s doing it again, only this time for the Yankees:

Keller finished his season between two teams with an 11-8 record and 3.13 ERA in 144 innings. He struck out 157 and walked just 28. He opened the year with the Class A Charleston RiverDogs of the South Atlantic League after he dazzled in a short amount of work last year. Keller allowed just four earned runs in 41 innings over three affiliates in 2016 (0.88 ERA), with 51 strikeouts and seven walks.

Last, But First

Still, Keller is unranked in any way and will have to keep proving it. Again, we are going to know a lot about Brian Keller by the end of 2018.

There are other good relievers here as well, like David Sosebee and Hobie Harris, but only one other high-level pitching prospect: Albert Abreu.

Abreu might have the hoped to come into camp and make a name for himself. Instead, an emergency appendectomy sidelined him almost from the first day. His line from last year had already announced him: 3.38 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 61 strikeouts, 18 walks and 45 hits in 53 IP.

Brought over from Houston in the Brian McCann trade, Albert has continued to drop his walks-per-nine and improve his control over his secondary pitches. While his live fastball that sometimes hits 100 makes him a lock as at least a future big league reliever, his ceiling is still that of a front-line starter.

Perhaps all of that is why he is the Yanks fifth-ranked prospect, and 75th overall, as well as being ranked 86th by Sickels. Of all the pitchers profiled at this level, Abreu is the most likely to leapfrog some of the pitchers already at Trenton.

But while Tampa is swamp-deep in high-prospect pitchers, there is only one position player worth mentioning. He might be the best player in the entire system, however.

A Single Shining Star

Kyle Holder is 24 and still can’t hit; Tim Lynch will soon be 25. The error-prone Hoy Jun Park, meanwhile, is on no one’s radar anymore. And those are some of the best position players at this level.

Except for Estevan Florial (.298/.372/.479; 13 home runs). Florial is either very well known to you, or you are reading a piece that goes far deeper into Yankees details than you could possibly care about, so we’ll keep this brief.

Florial is the Yanks second overall prospect, ahead of Sheffield and Andujar, Abreu and Perez. He was sent to Trenton from Tampa for their playoffs, just as he was advanced the year before from Charleston for Tampa’s postseason.

Then he spent his Fall in Arizona and his Spring as a twinkle in Yankees’ eyes.

MLB has the 20-year old at 44, while Sickels puts him at 47. That all means he will start where he spent most of his 2017 season but will not be there for long. He really could rise as far as the Bronx this year, although it is far more likely he ends in Scranton.

If you are only going to have one great position player at a level, Florial is the one to have. Charleston, however, has the opposite problem: A lot of good players but no great ones.

Low-A Charleston RiverDogs

As you can see, the Yankees have promising pitchers at every level. And although they have their weakest class currently in South Carolina, there are still some pitchers of extreme interest.

Chief among them has to be Glenn Otto. He came out of Rice as a long-reliever but has been converted to a starter, as was Chance Adams; take that reference as you will. Drafted last year, Otto shined in his brief debut in the Gulf Coast and Penn leagues, putting up a 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP.

And while a pitcher of his pedigree should have done well at those levels, his 30 SO in 20 IP was enough to move to Charleston. Right now he looks like a very promising reliever who would need to add a good-to-plus third pitch to be considered a future starter.

That is still good enough to have him as the Yankees 20th best prospect, though.

But the rest of the really good arms here are almost definitely bound for the bullpen. RHP Nick Nelson has a power fastball that helped him strikeout 110 men in 100 IP last year, but not even a good secondary pitch. And that still has him rated 27th in the Yanks system, which shows its degradation.

The Class of 2017

Dalton Lehnen, like Otto, was drafted last year and immediately struck out 43 batters in just 33 innings. He also gave up 40 hits. But a lefty who strikes guys out always has an easier path to the majors.

Just added JP Sears, however, needs no such help. Here is how Matt Dean at MiLB described him:

…former Citadel hurler JP Sears will make his return to The Joe just over a year removed from an All-American season in Charleston, when he ranked fifth in the country in strikeouts (142) and was named the Southern Conference Pitcher of the Year. Sears will debut as a Yankee farmhand after being drafted in the 11th round by the Mariners in June and being dealt to New York during the offseason.

While Sears is unranked and unseen by the Yankees, his stats from his 17 games last year in the M’s system speak for themselves: 28 innings pitched, 0.65 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with 51 strikeouts to 12 walks.

That will make for a strong staff in Charleston but not necessarily any future starting studs. But at least one or two of them are likely to make the majors.

However, while there are more position players with that potential here than at the level above, there are none so sure as Florial. There are still, though, several players of interest.

Coming up Big

The most intriguing one right now has to be SS Oswaldo Cabrera. And the thing that makes him so interesting is his age. He was the youngest player to be on a Sally League opening day roster last year, at just 18 years one month, and played the bulk of his season there at Charleston.

The Yankees see something in this kid.

Baseball America does, too, as they have him ranked as the team’s 27th best prospect; MLB omits him. And the signs are very suggestive. As a 17-year old in 2016, he batted .345/.396/.523 with four home runs, although he regressed against much older players last season, slashing .252/.306/.321 with another four home runs.

That might just be holding his own, but that is more than might be expected at his age. And he is good enough defensively. Oswaldo has a long ways to go before he proves anything, positive or negative. But the higher he rises, the more we will all get to see what the Yankees do.

Still Time

Fortunately, that is the case for the rest of the interesting group here.

SS Wilkerman Garcia was highly thought of when he was signed out of Venezuela, but his bat has not been nearly as good as his glove. Here is what Brendan Kuty of NJ.com had to say last year at this time, along with his interviewee, Yankees coach Luis Sojo:

Wilkerman Garcia, ranked No. 18 on MLB.com’s top Yankees prospect list, turns 19 on April 1. The Yankees gave him a $1.35-million signing bonus. Last season, he struggled at Rookie-level Pulaski, hitting just .198 with a homer in 54 games. Here’s what Sojo had to say on how Wilkerman Garcia could improve … One thing that we want out of him is to be more aggressive. He takes everything too easy. He’s very young. He’s got a lot to learn. It’s our job to tell him how to do things. He’s got so much talent. He’s going to be a good player. We just want him to speed it up a bit more, be more aggressive.

That didn’t work out so well.

Garcia hit just .222/.256/.296 last year with one home run for Staten Island. And he has been dropped from the 18th ranked prospect to off of MLB’s top 30. If he is going to turn it around, he needs to start that process now. Any improvement will buy him more time in the system, but he at least needs to start showing it.

A Big Bat in the Outfield

Left fielder Frederick Cuevas had a breakout year as a 20-year old in Pulaski. His slash featured career highs in AVG and SLG: .312/.373/.455. Promising in equal measure are his three home runs in 43 games, at the age of 19, and that he hit them as a lefty, as helpful to a hopeful Yankees hitter as a pitcher.

However, one good season does not make a prospect. But it does make him of real interest; did he figure it out or already have his career year? He doesn’t have to prove it this year, but he cannot fall off of a cliff either. Now on to one of his playmates.

Joining him in the outfield will be fellow RiverDog-returner Steven Sensley , a lefty masher with huge raw power. The former Ragin’ Cajun clubbed 13 home runs (including four with Charleston) in just 50 games after being drafted in the 12th round out of Lousiana-Lafayette, the third-most long balls of anyone from the 2017 class.

We went back to Matt Dean’s fine piece for that last quote. One thing not mentioned is that the right fielder is also older than the others we have looked at, and will play this season at the age of 22. However, that does not account for the disparity in home runs.

Average Power

But Steven has always been more than just a big bat. Here’s a piece from two years ago from Stephan Wiebe from the Anchorage Daily News:

Through Thursday’s games, Sensley ranks third in the ABL in batting average (.318), second in RBIs (19), fourth in runs scored (16) and is tied for second in home runs (3). In his second game in Alaska, Sensley smacked a seventh-inning grand slam that put the Bucs ahead in an 11-8 win over the Mat-Su Miners. The lefty from Baton Rouge was drafted out of University High in 2013 in the 33rd round by Minnesota, but he chose not to sign. He was drafted again in 2015 in the 38th round by Tampa Bay after a year of junior college play at Louisiana State-Eunice, and again he declined the offer.

And last year, Sensley continued to show his hitting skills, finishing .292/.370/.584. Now he has to show he can do it against age-appropriate talent. But if he does, he will find himself soon moving up in the Yankees system and rankings. And in the eyes of the fans.

Time for the Rising

That’s true for all of the prospects at these lower levels. They have potential, nothing more. Just as the Yankees 2018 season does. But to realize that potential, they will need the help of some of the players we just looked at. Some will rise and become stars, while others will fall by the wayside.

But who will that be? Obviously, Andujar, Gleyber, and Thairo will all get looks in the show; Andujar is getting one now. Acevedo, Adams, and German are also almost definitely going to make appearances. Long-term, Florial looks like one of the best of the bunch.

Which pitchers will become starters and which relievers is harder to project, especially with the limits I imposed at the beginning. Freicer Perez looks more like a solid pick for a starter every day, as does Justus Sheffield. That would have to put Loaisiga, Abreu, and Sears in the pen.

Next: With the Season Underway, Here are the Yankees Most Intriguing Issues

Obviously, those are just guesses. But we will find out a lot of answers this year, especially as there are other talented players pushing up from below.

In a deep system like the Yankees, prospects either have to produce or get out of the way. Which ones will rise and which will fall, and who will help the Yankees this season, are going to be two of the most interesting aspects of the 2018 Minor League Season.

And it all starts today.