MLB Top Prospects: Top 10 Catcher Prospects for 2018
After exploring both the team top 10 lists, overall top 150, and system rankings in our MLB Top Prospects series, we finish with a look at positional rankings. Today, we look at the top 10 catcher prospects for 2018.
Our MLB Top Prospect series at Call to the Pen is spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten catcher prospects for 2018.
We will explore each position with a top 10 list, and then after we get to #1, don’t leave as we will also highlight one player who is “on the rise” and could factor into the positional rankings after the 2018 season if they hold their current trajectory.
Each of these MLB Top Prospect rankings have come through the hundreds of games each summer Ben watches as well as speaking with multiple people throughout the game and gauging their opinions as well on players he has not had a good look at. This is a personal opinion, and a ranking position higher or lower than industry standard does not indicate “liking” or “hating” a certain player more or less – by just showing up on this list, there is a degree of appreciation of the talent a player brings!
We will start each position list with an overall look at the position itself within the game and the strength of the position.
Position overview
The emphasis on catching defense, framing, and other things a quality backstop provides has shifted the emphasis that teams put on developing players behind the plate. For years, premium athletes or premium hitters who happened to play catcher as amateurs would be moved off of the position to take advantage of their athleticism and/or bat at another position.
Instead now, players with premium athleticism or premium leadership skills are being moved to catcher as the league values quality catching both in the individual position’s contribution to the team, but also in the contribution that a quality catcher provides to the pitching staff.
A number of teams have really done well in developing a catching “factory”, but the most notable is definitely the Los Angeles Dodgers. While there is just one who appears on this list, four were considered strongly, and if this list went to 20, they would have four of the top 20 catchers in the minors for sure, which is an incredible thing to say, especially after graduating Austin Barnes from prospect status last year as yet another excellent athletic backstop.
Let’s take a look at the catchers….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Jake Rogers, Detroit Tigers
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/18/1995 (22)
2018 level: AA Erie SeaWolves
Info: One of the best defensive catchers in the 2016 draft coming out of Tulane, Rogers was not known for his bat at all, but he’s really seen his bat develop as a pro.
Rogers has elite framing and receiving skills behind the plate with a plus arm
Still a tremendous defensive catcher, Rogers has elite framing and receiving skills behind the plate with a plus arm. He has excellent lateral movement with tremendous instincts moving with pitches. Pitchers love working with Rogers as well.
Offensively, Rogers has seen tremendous growth, flashing the ability to drive the ball a ton. He’s likely going to have a below-average contact tool due to his long swing, and that will determine his ability to be a starting catcher versus a power-oriented backup. He’s also got a significant leg kick to open his swing.
His defense will provide Rogers a high floor and a likely backup role in the majors. If he can get to his hit tool enough to hit .250, he could be a very valuable starter for a number of years.
9. MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 11/29/1998 (19)
2018 level: low-A Lexington Legends
Info: With a father who is a coach of a very fast-improving college program at Florida International University, which led to him showing some impressive natural feel for the game predraft. The Royals nabbed him in the 2nd round, and he’s shown well enough that he’s shown up in a number of MLB Top Prospect lists, including the CTTP top 150 list.
Melendez has an impressive skillset behind the plate and at the plate. Behind the plate, his feel is very advanced, allowing him to move very well behind the plate, handle his pitchers well, and use his natural instincts for the game along with his elite pop times to make him one of the toughest guys to steal on in the Arizona Rookie League.
Offensively, Melendez has an impressive setup and swing that allow him to get loft in his swing, though he can get long in his swing, especially when he is getting a bit pull-happy, which leads to some swing and miss. He does have a quick bat that allows him to correct well when he stays within his body.
Melendez opened up in low-A in 2018, and showing well in full-season ball could put him on the fast track in pair with his advanced feel for the game.
Next: #7 and #8
8. Sean Murphy, Oakland Athletics
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/10/1994 (23)
2018 level: AA Midland RockHounds
Info: Coming into the 2016 season, Murphy was considered a potential rising college player for the 2016 draft, but a broken hamate bone did not allow him to show out in his draft year, having him fall to the 3rd round out of Wright State.
Murphy has certainly been able to make up for lost time, even with some healing time over 2017 costing him a few games along the way. While the offense came back well in 2017, offense is just a bonus with Murphy as he is an excellent defender.
Led by a double-plus arm that’s easily a 70-grade and even possibly a true 80 grade, Murphy is also one of the best blockers in the minor leagues behind the plate. He is still working on his framing, but he does have tremendous rapport with his pitchers.
In the box, Murphy really has an easy, quick swing that allows for plenty of contact, but his raw strength leads many to believe there will be more power in his future. On top of that, Murphy has some surprising athleticism and tremendous baseball instincts that allow him to top out his average speed and snag a stolen base or two on less-attentive teams.
While that athleticism, arm, and bat potential do have some thinking there may be a future in the outfield for Murphy, the premium on his skills behind the plate will keep him there, and if he can keep his health and continue adjusting to pro pitching, he could end up finishing a quick ascent to the major leagues as soon as late 2018.
7. Alex Jackson, Atlanta Braves
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/25/1995 (22)
2018 level: AA Mississippi Braves
Info: Considered one of the most gifted hitters in the 2014 draft, the Seattle Mariners drafted Jackson 6th overall that year out of high school in San Diego and went about immediately moving him out from behind the plate to the outfield. After a decent draft season performance, Jackson struggled in his two seasons with the Mariners before being traded to the Braves over the 2016-2017 offseason.
Jackson began to finally live up to his promise in 2017 with the Braves
Assumed to be an MLB top prospect coming out of high school, Jackson began to finally live up to his promise in 2017 with the Braves, coinciding with a move back behind the plate. He hit 19 home runs between high-A and AA, though he did not have a great walk rate, but accessing his power better is certainly something he struggled to achieve with Seattle.
Behind the plate, Jackson is a definite work in progress due to his time away the position. He’s made huge strides in his framing, but his receiving and his control of the run game are very much work in progress. He does work well with his pitchers and he’s received very high marks for his coachability.
Jackson will open up at AA and see time in AAA for sure in 2018, and his ability to control the strike zone will be a focus offensively in 2018.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Zack Collins, Chicago White Sox
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/6/1995 (23)
2018 level: AA Birmingham Barons
Info: A tremendous college hitter for a catcher, many had concerns that Collins big frame (6’3″, 215-230 pounds) would keep him from being able to stick behind the plate at the pro level. While he’s still not an elite defender by any means, he has worked hard to remain behind the plate, and the White Sox have shown a willingness throughout their system to sacrifice some level of glove work behind the plate for bat as long as consistent framing is still there.
No matter your opinion of his catching work, Collins definitely has plus power throughout the field and an excellent ability to take a walk, though he has a swing with a bit of a long load, which can lead to less quality contact when he misses on a pitch, leading to a lower batting average (.224 in 2017).
With work on shortening that load time, the bat alone could carry him to a lengthy major league career, but Collins is making enough progress behind the plate to believe that he could end up being fringe-average as a defensive catcher, which could be enough if his bat is able to play to the top end of its projections.
5. Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/24/1995 (23)
2018 level: MLB Baltimore Orioles
Info: Originally a 2nd round pick in 2013 out of high school, Sisco has always hit for the Orioles system as he’s worked his way up, but there’s been questions if he would be best moving to another position, though his offensive profile at other positions likely would not play as well, so he’s remained behind the plate, and to his credit, he’s done well pushing himself forward defensively to the point where the Orioles trust him as their starter at the big league level.
(Sisco has) done well pushing himself forward defensively to the point where the Orioles trust him as their starter at the big league level
Blessed with a short, quick swing more oriented toward contact than power, Sisco has hit .311 through the minor leagues, showing his ability to put the bat to the ball in a positive way, but he’s really began to see his power develop from slap power at draft to gap power, and then in 2017, he began to display some over-fence power that could lead to at least average home run production.
Sisco is not going to be a plus behind the plate, but he’s drastically improved his skills in receiving, blocking, and framing. His arm will always be an issue in the run game, but working with his pitchers in sequencing their pitches and throwing over to keep hitters close allowed him to do very well controlling the run game in AAA in the second half of 2017, so he could do some things to help with that lesser arm.
The Orioles made him at least their platoon catcher against right-handed arms, and he’ll likely be working toward the full everyday role by the end of the season if not by mid-season.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Jorge Alfaro, Philadelphia Phillies
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/11/1993 (24)
2018 level: MLB Philadelphia Phillies
Info: A guy that many prospect insiders have been hearing about for nearly a decade (thanks, Jason Parks!), Alfaro has always been known for three things – an incredible arm, incredible raw power as part of surprising athleticism, and no idea how to take a walk. Sadly, nearly a decade later, he’s still displaying all three traits.
Alfaro has always been known for three things – an incredible arm, incredible raw power as part of surprising athleticism, and no idea how to take a walk
Alfaro’s swing is a bit long, and that has always led to strikeouts, though he’s been able to keep the rate around 25% at worst typically, which is not bad for a power hitter in the modern game, but his career walk rate of under 5% is what is significantly concerning. Even when he showed well at the end of 2017 at the major league level by hitting .318 with 5 home runs over 29 games, he only walked 3 times over those 29 games.
Over the offseason, Alfaro worked significantly with coaches on his approach, and it showed in spring. So far, he’s already matched those 3 big league walks in 29 games last year in his first 5 starts with the Phillies in 2018. If that change is permanent, this ranking will seem absurdly low within months.
Defensively, Alfaro is surprisingly raw in his framing and presentation behind the plate, though his athleticism allows him to move well behind the plate and he has an easy 80-grade arm that will keep runners honest.
3. Carson Kelly, St. Louis Cardinals
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/14/1994 (23)
2018 level: AAA Memphis Redbirds
Info: When the Cardinals signed Yadier Molina to an extension, many thought Kelly would be trade bait. As good a prospect as he may be, he’s going to be 26-27 when Molina is gone, which uses up some of his best years in AAA or as a backup. Instead, he remains in the Cardinals system and actually was sent back down to AAA this year rather than backing up Molina.
Kelly was originally a third baseman when drafted out of high school in 2012, and he took to catching well. While he was considered a power prospect out of high school, he’s developed into more of an all-fields gap power hitter, averaging roughly 30 doubles and 10 home runs per 150 games over his minor league career.
After some adjustments following a rough 2015 at high-A, Kelly is definitely a quality hitter for average and keeps his strikeouts in check as well, striking out less than 15% for his minor league career. He doesn’t have a high walk rate, but still keeps a 7.5% walk rate successfully.
Behind the plate, Kelly has all the raw tools to be an elite backstop, showing tremendous hands and movement behind the plate along with some of the best framing in the minor leagues. His fringe-plus arm plays well with his top-end footwork to allow him to control the running game.
One consideration is the Cardinals could get Kelly some time at other positions in AAA in 2018 early on to increase his flexibility off the bench the rest of 2018 and in 2019 and 2020 before Molina leaves. That could allow Kelly to get 300 at bats per season while serving as Molina’s apprentice.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Keibert Ruiz, Los Angeles Dodgers
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/20/1998 (19)
2018 level: AA Tulsa Drillers
Info: My pick for the player who was “on the rise” at the position last year, Ruiz exploded on the scene nationally in 2017. Many were keying on Ruiz’s unique talent before the season, but none could have imagined he’d fill into that talent so much and so quickly as he did, reaching AA for their playoff push at the end of the season after breezing through both A-ball levels.
Doing all of this at 18 for most of the season, Ruiz hit .316/.361/.452 with 23 doubles and 8 home runs. He’s got an easy swing from both sides of the plate that makes consistent hard contact that shoots the ball around the field with line drive power now and the chance to add more power over the fence as he showed the ability to angle his swing pull-side from either side of the plate.
Ruiz is very athletic behind the plate, but his advanced bat has left his catching skills a bit raw, as he suffers from poor footwork at time, especially in the run game as he does have an above-average raw arm, but he often ends up in poor throwing position. He does have good hands.
Ruiz will get to see AA this season at 19, and that will be a good marker for his defense to see how that translates going forward.
1. Francisco Mejia, Cleveland Indians
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/27/1995 (22)
2018 level: AAA Columbus Clippers
Info: Extremely gifted with the bat from both sides of the plate, Mejia worked well last year to get him to tap into his raw power, resulting in excellent power numbers across the board. The Indians moved Mejia around a bit to try to get his bat onto the field more often.
Mejia’s advanced bat skills allowed him to move quickly through the minors
Mejia’s advanced bat skills allowed him to move quickly through the minors, getting plenty of notice in 2016 as he compiled a 50 game hitting streak between low-A and high-A. His quick ascent up the system has left some refining of his defense behind.
Those defensive skills are raw, but he is definitely skilled behind the plate with a plus to double-plus arm, excellent athleticism, and good hands, though he is still building his skills at working with pitchers and calling a game.
The Indians tried Mejia at third in 2017 due to the presence of strong catchers in the majors, but if he can show skills enough at third, he could get 5 starts per week split between catcher and third.
Next: Newcomer to watch
On the rise: William Contreras, Atlanta Braves
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/24/1997 (20)
2018 level: Extended Spring
Info: Contreras is the younger brother of Cubs catcher Willson Contreras, and like his brother, he was not a highly-touted prospect when he was signed. Unlike his brother, he’s a more well-rounded catcher early in his pro career, while Willson was (and sometimes still is) heavily pulled defensively by his premium arm.
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William also has the benefit over his brother in his development earlier in his career as his brother seemed to struggle offensively until breaking out at age 23 in AA with an extremely high BABIP that led to many questioning the validity of his breakout.
While he’s more well-rounded than his brother, Contreras also doesn’t have the peak skills he does either, which is both a positive and a negative at the same time. He has a plus arm, and he is an above-average blocker behind the plate, but he is still working on developing his skills in framing and pitch-calling.
At the plate, Contreras has shown advanced skills as a teenager in putting the barrel to the ball, and he gets hard line drives throughout the field. As he fills in his frame, he will likely hit for more over-fence power.
Contreras opened the season in extended spring, primarily due to the huge influx of catchers in the lower levels of the system, but he will most likely move to Rome out of extended spring as the Braves will likely move up Drew Lugbauer to either high-A or AA once they’ve had him work with Rome staff for a couple months.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So of the MLB top prospects, that is the top 10 catcher prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!