Fantasy Baseball starting pitcher risers and three sleepers
Getting an edge on your competition in MLB Fantasy Baseball can often be a matter of being quicker on the draw with free agents. Here are some pitchers you may want to target.
MLB Fantasy Baseball is hard. It’s even harder if your draft didn’t go quite how you had hoped and you find yourself scouring the free agent pool for talent in the early weeks. Maybe you reached a couple of times and are now regretting not taking the safer bet.
Perhaps you didn’t buy into that run on second base bats and ended up with Neil Walker as your starter. Or maybe, like me, you don’t believe in chasing a run on starting pitchers early, and you are looking to backfill your rotation.
It’s never a bad idea to land one of the top 5-7 starters in baseball if you can in the first two rounds. But I subscribe to the philosophy that it’s easier to plug holes in the rotation than in your lineup once the season gets underway, so I often focus mostly on hitters in the first six or seven rounds and find myself digging around for rotation help throughout the year.
If you are proactive about it and aren’t afraid to cut bait early on your late round picks when they struggle early, you can often pick up an arm or two worth rostering the rest of the year. So, with the first two weekends of the season in the books here’s a look at some pitchers to target.
Fantasy Baseball: The early risers
Jakob Junis – Owned in 60% of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.
The big right-hander Jake Junis threw 98 and ⅓ innings last year with a 4.30 ERA, a 1.281 WHIP, with 9 W and 80 K. It was an inauspicious start to his career, but at just 24 years old, he had plenty of time to grow.
So far this season he has thrown 14 innings in 2 starts and has looked fantastic. Junis will never be a significant source of strikeouts, so he will never get mentioned with four category starters like Stephen Strasburg, Dallas Keuchel or even Jon Lester. He can be a great help in ERA, WHIP and maybe even Wins, however.
Nine wins in 16 games started is a pretty solid rate. That’s just shy of 17 wins over 30 starts. In eight of his 16 starts in 2017, Junis went at least six innings, and he managed to go 5 and ⅔ in three others. He goes relatively deep into games, and after his first two starts last year, he made it through five full every other time out.
He likely won’t maintain an average of 7 IP per start this season, but he hasn’t allowed an earned run yet, and people are noticing. And while that 2.6 H/9 rate is undoubtedly going to come up a bunch, Junis has the tools to be a consistent source of three out of the four categories you are looking for out of your starting pitchers in standard scoring formats.
Grab him before it’s too late.
Mike Foltynewicz – Owned in 40% of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.
Another pitcher who is seeing his ownership rate rise recently is Mike Foltynewicz who has started the 2018 season with a bang. The former first-round pick has spent parts of four seasons in the majors already but hasn’t managed to break out just yet. A 2.61 ERA with 15 K and only three BB has many people wondering if he is ready to step into the spotlight.
Folty had a number of really encouraging starts in 2017, throwing at least six innings while allowing 2 or fewer earned runs 12 times. Unfortunately, he also had a tendency to get lit up every once in a while going less than five innings while giving up at least four earned runs in four of his starts.
Has he finally put that inconsistency behind him? It’s impossible to say after just two games, but the hot start has owners scooping him up just in case. And he’s a decent bet to make since even a return to his 2016 season would make him a solid depth starter on your roster.
Don’t expect the 13.06 K/9 to continue for long, but at a little less than a strikeout per inning, with a young but promising offense behind him, he can offer substantial value for a replacement of the 25th man on your team.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers:
Nick Pivetta – Owned in 12% of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.
This is an early grab opportunity. Now, you may look at his 6.02 ERA over 133 IP last season and wonder what I’m thinking here. But I’m not alone. First, there’s an excellent case to be made for Nick Pivetta‘s results being heavily influenced by bad luck last year. Second, his curveball appears to have significantly more drop, and his slider is looking more like a slurve than a cutter in his first two starts.
This looks like a pitcher who reworked his arsenal over the winter. Of course, he’s always had great stuff. It’s his command that has sometimes eluded him. But as Eno Sarris pointed out here, Pivetta was in the 90th percentile for the spin on his curve in 2017 and the 73rd percentile for vertical movement on his slider.
And as the linked Athletic piece goes on to show, he made improvements with that curveball as the season went on, increasing the break as the SBNation link above appears to show. If he can better utilize his fastball in 2018, there may be a breakout coming. You can probably put him on your watch list and wait for another start or two, but the longer you wait, the higher the risk that someone beats you to him.
Pivetta has a chance to be this year’s Zack Godley. With 1 W, 12 K and 9 H over his first 9 and ⅔ IP, he has the tools to be a four-category starter. If you have room to stash him or are willing to roll the dice on starting him immediately, it could pay dividends.
Eduardo Rodriguez – Owned in 24% of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.
Eduardo Rodriguez made his return to the mound following offseason knee surgery on Sunday but lasted only 3 and ⅔ innings. He gave up five hits and walked 2, but he struck out 7 and his fastball velocity was encouraging maxing out at 94.9 mph with an average of 92.8.
The surgery Rodriguez underwent isn’t your typical knee reconstruction, and his prognosis is very positive, so seeing early indications of his stuff being back and the velocity being within reach are significant signs that he will eventually settle in.
At his best, Rodriguez is a four-category starter, especially with the high powered Red Sox offense behind him. He’s capable of more than a strikeout per inning and should have plenty of run support feeding wins. Sunday notwithstanding, he tends to keep his hits below one per inning so as long as his walk rate returns to normal, his WHIP should be healthy.
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Rodriguez will get scooped up quickly if he has a strong start his next time out, so take advantage of the tentativeness and stash him while you can. You might want to wait to see how his next start goes before using him in an active roster spot, but his upside is enormous for an in-season FA pickup.
Yonny Chirinos – Owned in 2% of Yahoo Fantasy Baseball leagues.
The final player on this list is a bit unconventional. Yonny Chirinos is part of the “bullpen day” in Tampa’s starting rotation. The 24-year-old managed to blank the Red Sox over nine innings across two appearances with the second being a five-inning start. He has 7 K with 1 BB and just four hits so far.
Unless he cements himself as the starter ever 5th day, wins will be inconsistent, but he has a chance to offer a boost to your ERA and WHIP. The strikeouts will be moderate, having a K/9 of just 7.00 so far, but as the final piece to a roster, you could do much worse.
Next: Fantasy sleepers for Week Two
He will be more valuable in deeper leagues, and there is indeed some risk in tying up a roster spot on him for a few weeks while we wait to see if he takes hold of the 5th starter spot. At the very least, he is worth adding to your watchlist. His status could change in a heartbeat.