After exploring both the team top 10 lists, overall top 150, and system rankings in our MLB Top Prospects series, we finish with a look at positional rankings. Today, we look at the top 10 first base prospects for 2018.
Our MLB Top Prospect series at Call to the Pen is spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten first base prospects for 2018.
We will explore each position with a top 10 list, and then after we get to #1, don’t leave as we will also highlight one player who is “on the rise” and could factor into the positional rankings after the 2018 season if they hold their current trajectory.
Each of these MLB Top Prospect rankings have come through the hundreds of games each summer Ben watches as well as speaking with multiple people throughout the game and gauging their opinions as well on players he has not had a good look at. This is a personal opinion, and a ranking position higher or lower than industry standard does not indicate “liking” or “hating” a certain player more or less – by just showing up on this list, there is a degree of appreciation of the talent a player brings!
We will start each position list with an overall look at the position itself within the game and the strength of the position.
Position overview
Often a position that is heavy in AA/AAA players due to players typically changing to the position once they’ve been moved off of a different position, first base is currently fairly heavy in low-level prospects or recent draftees. That’s due to two major factors: the first is that teams are valuing defense more at the position, and often times are making the decision to move a guy to first to mold his footwork and glove there before he reaches the major leagues.
The second reason is really the primary one here. In 2017, 11 qualified first basemen had a slugging percentage over .500. The record for a season is 13 held by three separate seasons in the mid- to late-2000s, but since 2010, the position had been down in production to levels not seen since the early 1980s.
The “fly ball revolution” or whatever nomenclature you want to use to discuss the focus on getting batted balls up into the air more frequently than on a line or on the ground has given teams a certain level of comfort that they can develop power hitting from any quality hitter, and thus, there is a level of ignoring the first base position developmentally due to a thought that most players can be taught both how to mash and how to passably handle first base. Previously, teams would take a power hitter on his defensive decline and move him to first base as his mobility declined. Now the assumption is that any solid hitter can be taught to become both a power hitter and first baseman after reaching the major leagues, which has done a disservice to the position in the minor leagues as it is incredibly shallow in prospects worthy of MLB top prospects lists.
Let’s take a look at the first basemen….
Next: #9 and #10