Boston Red Sox: Mookie Betts is crushing the ball
By Damian Dydyn
Boston Red Sox fans are hoping Mookie Betts can return to his 2016 form and carry the team to a third straight division title. Is he headed in that direction in the early goings?
One of the big questions this winter for the Boston Red Sox, was whether Mookie Betts was more what we saw in 2016 or 2017? His 2017 season was a significant step down from his near MVP campaign the year before. But which is more representative of his talent? The answer is rather complicated, but for now Betts is showing signs of another big season at the plate.
In 2016 he crushed 31 HR with a 137 wRC+ while scoring 122 runs and driving in 113. He followed that with 24 HR, a 108 wRC+, 101 R and 102 RBI. That 2017 line includes a drop of 54 points of BABIP. However, the .322 from 2016 likely had some regression baked in. That said, .268 is below what we can expect from a hitter who averages exit velocities in the high 80’s. His 2016 EV was 89.7 and 2017 was 88.6. He is at 89.4 so far in 2018.
What’s different?
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
The big difference was actually in his FB% (launch angles between 26 and 39 degrees) where he dropped from 13.8% to 9.9. So far in 2018, with the obvious SSS warning, that mark is 16.1%. He’s seen a similar increase in HD% (launch angles between 19 and 26 degrees… the most productive range overall) going from 10.9% to 16.1.
This isn’t necessarily predictive, but with the reported shift in philosophy toward improving launch angle on balls in play, it’s a good sign that Mookie has made a change that should improve his results. We’ve seen similar signs elsewhere in the lineup as well.
So far Mookie has managed 1 HR and 3 2B, but he’s getting the ball into the air while continuing to hit it hard. He had the 7th most balls hit at 95 mph or higher in 2017 and there is no reason to assume that will change dramatically this year.
Next: Red Sox top prospect Chavis PED bust
He does have a .379 BABIP, so he is due for some significant regression, meaning his 190 wRC+ will absolutely come down. But the early indications are good if you are hoping for another MVP caliber year from the young stud outfielder. I will post periodic updates as the season progresses.