Why does this matter?
J.D. Martinez is still hitting the ball very hard. His average EV so far this season is 93.1 mph, which is slightly higher than his average from 2017 of 91.0. That was the 15th best in the majors, for what it’s worth.
Now, the slight uptick is likely due to the increase in ground balls. From the Perpetua article linked above:
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"“The average exit velocity for balls hit on this [GB%] angle is 92.9 mph.”"
As his FB% comes up his average EV will come down, but not by too much:
"“Once you reach 26 degrees, the difference begins to show in earnest. Balls hit between 26 and 39 degrees have an average exit velocity of 89.7 mph, and those hit above 39 degrees have an average of 82.6 mph.”"
The difference between balls hit in the GB range, and the FB range is roughly three mph. So he’d be right about where you’d expect based on his 2017 average.
It all adds up to…
In short, he’s still got the most crucial factor in generating good outcomes on balls in play; exit velocity. The fly balls, which are at the core of the way he revamped his swing in 2014, will come. And when they do, expect him to look a whole lot more like the slugger who led the majors in slugging percentage in 2017.
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The first nine games aren’t exactly the way the Red Sox hoped he would start the year, but he’ll come around. Probably sooner rather than later.