MONTREAL, QC - MARCH 27: Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) pitches the ball during the St. Louis Cardinals versus the Toronto Blue Jays spring training game on March 27, 2018, at Olympic Stadium in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
MONTREAL, QC – MARCH 27: Toronto Blue Jays infielder Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) pitches the ball during the St. Louis Cardinals versus the Toronto Blue Jays spring training game on March 27, 2018, at Olympic Stadium in Montreal, QC (Photo by David Kirouac/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
After exploring both the team top 10 lists, overall top 150, and system rankings in our MLB Top Prospects series, we finish with a look at positional rankings. Today, we look at the top 10 third base prospects for 2018.
Our MLB Top Prospect series at Call to the Pen is spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten third base prospects for 2018.
We will explore each position with a top 10 list, and then after we get to #1, don’t leave as we will also highlight one player who is “on the rise” and could factor into the positional rankings after the 2018 season if they hold their current trajectory.
Each of these MLB Top Prospect rankings have come through the hundreds of games each summer Ben watches as well as speaking with multiple people throughout the game and gauging their opinions as well on players he has not had a good look at. This is a personal opinion, and a ranking position higher or lower than industry standard does not indicate “liking” or “hating” a certain player more or less – by just showing up on this list, there is a degree of appreciation of the talent a player brings!
We will start each position list with an overall look at the position itself within the game and the strength of the position.
With 3 players graduating off of the top 10 list from last year and 13 third basemen on the CTTP top 150 prospects list, it’s a very good time at the position, with plenty of talent throughout the game at the position, both offensively and defensively, and from the major leagues all the way down to complex leagues, there are quality players at the position.
With an emphasis more and more on shifting, third basemen are often expected to handle either work up the middle in the shift or to cover the entire left side of the infield during an infield shift for a left-handed hitter. That has put a premium on defense at the position, taking away the days of the plodding, hulking immobile guy with good reactions that can pass at third but couldn’t handle any of those shift positions.
The offensive requirements for a power bat or at least an impact offensive player still remain at the position, however, with each player on this list having a significant offensive ceiling.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/1/1995 (22) 2018 level: AA Biloxi Shuckers
Info: The Brewers nabbed Erceg in the 2nd round in 2016 from NAIA Menlo, but he initially started at Cal, transferring for off-field reasons. He had a very solid pro debut in his draft season in the Brewers system, but 2017 was a different story.
Arguably the most naturally gifted defensive third baseman in the minor leagues, Erceg has a powerful arm, excellent reactions, and plus hands at third
Arguably the most naturally gifted defensive third baseman in the minor leagues (he or Ke’Bryan Hayes would likely compete strongest for the title), Erceg has a powerful arm, excellent reactions, and plus hands at third. He’s exceptionally gifted in his instincts off the bat, often taking three steps in toward the ball before most can even ascertain that the ball is definitely falling in front of them.
Erceg really seemed to expand his typically-disciplined zone coverage at the plate in 2017, whether that was due to the jump to high-A, pressing due to his own press clippings, or simply wanting to do his best. When he’s collected at the plate and balanced at the plate, he can generate loud contact all over the field, and he has fringe-plus speed when underway, allowing him to be a guy who can cover multiple bases in a hurry as a base runner.
The Brewers will get Erceg started at AA this season, and if he can show well, he could find his way to the majors quickly. With Travis Shaw hitting arbitration after this season, he could get expensive quickly, making Erceg a very attractive replacement for a team looking to watch their bottom line.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/10/1994 (23) 2018 level: AAA Nashville Sounds
Info: Neuse was a guy that many who saw him in his draft season really liked watching on the field and thought he was a lot better player than his raw numbers showed, though he was likely not a pro shortstop, which was his position in college.
Moving to third primarily in pro ball, Neuse is still surprisingly athletic for his stout build, flashing enough range to work up the middle on either side of the bag in a pinch. His plus arm is almost wasted at second, but it’s a definite asset at third, and could allow him to work at a corner outfield spot as well.
Neuse showed plenty in the Arizona Fall League with the bat to lead to the A’s trusting him with a jump over AA to AAA Nashville. He’s worked at three positions already, and likely will get some time in the outfield as well as Matt Chapman is going to be manning the hot corner in Oakland for years to come, and if he keeps hitting, the A’s will find a way to get that bat into their lineup somewhere.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/10/1996 (21) 2018 level: Disabled List
Info: I had Burger 6th on this list before he tore his Achilles and will miss all of 2018, but I’m a believer enough that I am keeping him this high even with the injury.
Burger has more than just a very fun name for a baseball player. He has one of the best power bats in the minor leagues, with pure right handed power that he’s developed into total hitting ability from the right side over his collegiate career, likely not a .300 hitter, but a guy who will give above-average contact ability along with plus to double-plus power.
The question has always been whether Burger would be able to handle defense. Physically, Burger doesn’t have the body you would expect to be athletic at the position, with much of his size focused in his lower half. He’s much more athletic than his size would indicate, however, and he’s used that athleticism along with a hard work to become an above average glove man at the position with a plus arm.
His biggest issue would be his footwork at the position, and coming back from the injury will be vital to his progression, but the bat is special enough that Burger will have a positive profile going forward.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/19/1993 (24) 2018 level: MLB Miami Marlins
Info: Anderson was a draft pick out of college in Arkansas, where he struggled in his final college season and was played around the field, so teams really never had a sure idea of how Anderson would fit defensively. He dropped from a possible first round talent based on raw talent and tools to a 3rd round pick by the Marlins that signed for an under-slot bonus.
(Anderson has) developed his plus raw power and finally tapped into it in game in 2017 with more consistency
The Marlins worked him to third to take advantage of his plus to plus-plus arm, and his athleticism has allowed him to handle the position at a very high level defensively, considered an overall plus defender at the position at this point.
He’s also developed his plus raw power and finally tapped into it in game in 2017 with more consistency. While he’s able to tap into that power more frequently, he has a line drive-oriented swing, pounding the walls from pole to pole with hard line drives, giving Anderson the chance to be a high-doubles, high-average hitter with 20ish home run power.
Anderson also brings above-average speed and base running instincts, though his lack of first-step quickness will likely keep him from ever really being an impact stealing bases, he could be very valuable as a base runner. In fact, as he takes over the Marlins job this season, Anderson reminds many in skill set of the previous starting third baseman in Miami when he was at his best, Martin Prado.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/7/1998 (19) 2018 level: low-A Lake County Captains
Info: An elite high school bat from a cold-weather state in Pennsylvania, most figured Jones wouldn’t be a shortstop, but when he fell from a likely mid-first round pick to the second round, most teams really could not explain why.
Jones stands 6’5″ and has filled in his frame to a solid 200 pounds, though he could still stand to add another 10-15 pounds. He had a bit of a rough pro debut as he adjusted to added size that came in his senior season and a shift to a new position.
He was special, to say the least, in short season ball in 2017, with an excellent approach at the plate along with a quick, simple swing that accesses the whole field with above-average game power currently, though he hits on a line currently. Adding loft would allow him to access more of his raw plus power.
With a plus arm and plus power, he has a profile to be an excellent third baseman, but he is working on his footwork at the position, and the Indians will be patient to see him jump forward in his first full-season league.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/11/1995 (22) 2018 level: Suspended
Info: Initially listed much higher, Chavis was suspended just before the season began for a performance-enhancing substance, and while that does drop him down this list a few spots, his work in 2017 should not be completely ignored and assumed to be the product of PEDs.
Chavis’ work in 2017 should not be completely ignored and assumed to be the product of PEDs
Chavis was drafted by the Red Sox out of high school in Georgia in 2014 in the first round. He had plenty of raw talent, actually hanging at shortstop for his first pro season before shifting to third base, though he’s maintained enough range and glove work that he’s played a game or two at the position each season.
Possessing raw power in his swing from the time of his draft, Chavis struggled to access that power due to horrible recognition at the plate, both in pitch and zone recognition. He would put on incredible displays in batting practice and then spend the entire game rolling over pitches or striking out due to his inability to recognize pitches or protect the zone.
In 2017, Chavis saw significant improvements in his ability to access his raw power due to significant improvements in his pitch recognition. He still did not walk at a high rate, but he made huge improvements in accessing his power.
Defensively, Chavis made a huge step forward in 2017. That sort of move forward really can’t be explained by the PED he was suspended for either, just like his pitch recognition improvement. That is why I will keep Chavis here to see how he handles his return and likely time in AAA after he returns mid-season.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/2/1995 (23) 2018 level: MLB New York Yankees
Info: An impressive teen when he signed in 2011 for $750K, Andujar has always had an incredible raw defensive ability, with a plus arm and plus instincts, but with some questions on his hands and range at the position. He’s worked at this, but his bat has put him in the majors already, so he’ll need to continue his work either at the majors, or slide across the diamond, conveniently where the Yankees have injury issues at the present.
(Andujar’s) worked at (his defensive shortcomings), but his bat has put him in the majors already
With that bat, Andujar is a very impressive hitter with an all-fields approach to spray line drives, and while he has had an aggressive approach at the plate, he’s rarely had a high strikeout rate. Working to be more selective in 2016 and 2017 allowed him to tap into his raw power more and see more balls over the fence.
Andujar will be spending the 2018 season with the big league club, working likely at both corner infield spots, and if he can maintain his selectivity from last season, he could be an asset at either corner or DH.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/2/1997 (20) 2018 level: AA Mississippi Braves
Info: Viewed by many teams as a future power closer or even possible mid-rotation starter off the mound, the Braves saw Riley for his power bat and arm at third base, and while some thought his body “soft” in his first pro season, and his glove work quite porous, he’s made significant strides in both, and it’s made and impact on his future profile.
As recent as early 2017, many questioned Riley’s ability to handle third base at a full-time level, but he has taken huge strides defensively working with Braves coaches to become an MLB top prospect overall due to his now-above-average defense and double-plus raw power.
His raw plate approach was messy to say the least before 2017, but he has taken to more selective swings at the plate, looking for a pitch he can drive before he unleashes his massive power, and it’s translated into positive average and power both in his big bat, though his selectivity will always mean he has fairly high K rates.
With a big arm, above-average raw defense, and his bat now unleashed to fulfill his power potential, Braves fans will be excited to see Riley as soon as late 2018.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 6/29/1995 (22) 2018 level: AAA Louisville Bats
Info: One of the most pure hitters coming from college in recent memory, Senzel went #2 overall in 2016, and he’s been on the fast track to the major leagues ever since.
Playing around the diamond during his college days at Tennessee, Senzel has the arm to handle third, but his ability to defensively cover middle infield positions allows him to be an excellent defender at the hot corner with hands well advanced for the position.
With the bat, Senzel was known for his impressive ability to put the barrel to the ball in college, but often on a line, spraying hard hit doubles around the field. He’s shown similar ability as a pro, though he can flash fringe-plus power in the cage. He’ll likely work into some more power in the big leagues, leaving him with a high-average, high-doubles, and 15-20 home run power with Gold Glove defense possible at the hot corner.
While that may not be the most impressive profile on this list, it’s the fact that while that ceiling isn’t high, the floor is extremely so, leaving not a ton of room, barring injury, for Senzel to truly be a “bust” at this point, having shown his skills at the upper minors against advanced pitching with consistency. That has him ranked this highly.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/16/1999 (19) 2018 level: AA New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Info: When it comes to pure hitting, there is not a more impressive prospect in all of baseball than Vlad Junior. To just put into perspective what he did as an 18 year old across two full-season A-ball levels in 2017 is hard to even fathom. He led all of the minor leagues in on base. He walked more than he struck out. He showed power with 43 extra base hits in just 437 at bats, and, once again, he did it all at 18 years of age!
When it comes to pure hitting, there is not a more impressive prospect in all of baseball than Vlad Junior
The Blue Jays are so comfortable with Guerrero’s bat that they opened him at AA this season, where he’ll play the entire season as a teenager, though he may not even last the entire season in AA, especially as he has opened the season with a 1.057 OPS over his first 9 games played and continues to walk more than he strikes out.
There are questions about his defense, as he does not have his father’s long, lean frame, working with more of a low-half-heavy frame that he can still get surprisingly athletic movement from. He makes excellent lateral moves on balls and has plenty of arm for third base. It will remain to be seen whether he has the quickness in his feet long term to remain at the position, but his bat is elite enough that he will be among the 2-3 MLB Top Prospects, no matter the defensive position he plays.
Blue Jay fans may not have a long wait to see the young star, as their incumbent third baseman, Josh Donaldson, hits the free agent market after the 2018 season, so if Guerrero can show himself worthy of the early ascension, he could open 2019 as a 20 year-old leader in Toronto.
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/11/1999 (18) 2018 level: Extended Spring
Info: Officially the youngest player picked in the first two days of the 2017 MLB draft, Vientos grew up a New York Mets fan, and he was more than excited to join the organization.
Vientos was known as an amateur for one of the most impressive bat to ball abilities in the entire 2017 draft, making loud contact throughout the field and able to cover the entire zone with quality contact. While he played shortstop in high school, with a wide-shouldered 6’4″ frame that seemed certain to fill in too much to stick at short.
Blessed with plus hands and a plus arm, Vientos would transition very well to third base as his instincts, hands, and arm have allowed him to work well at short to this point.
Vientos has not hit for a ton of over-the-fence power in game to this point, but he has shown the ability in the cage to elevate the ball, and many feel he will have the ability to be a player that both hits for average and 20-25 home run power with plenty of doubles as well.
He was getting plenty of positive press in spring that he could open at low-A, so it would not surprise if the Mets have him come out of extended spring to Columbia, but he would also be an excellent candidate for the NYPL as well.
So of the MLB top prospects, that is the top 10 third base prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!
