Fantasy Baseball: Is Christian Villanueva Worth Picking Up?
By Damian Dydyn
Christian Villanueva, the young Padres third baseman has been mashing like an MVP. Can he keep up the pace or is he destined to fall off the map?
There aren’t many hitters with better 2018 stats than Christian Villanueva. The 26 year-old’s 238 wRC+ would lead the majors if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. His 6 HR would be tied for 3rd with Mike Trout and Joey Gallo. He’s only 4 PA short of qualifying, for whatever it’s worth. But is the young third baseman with a .333/.423/.822 triple slash (that last number isn’t OPS) worth dropping someone for in your fantasy league? The answer is a bit complicated.
Villanueva has never had a wRC+ higher than 129 in the minors. In two very short stints at the major league level he’s managed that gaudy 238 so far this season and a 184 in 2017 over 12 games. That’s 138% and 84% better than league average respectively. Neither number is sustainable, and you can see why when you look at his BABIPs. A .389 last year and a .409 this season suggest some heavy regression is in store. But how much?
Regression is a cruel mistress.
The Padres prospect has been a poor hitter for average over his minor league career, managing just a .269 BA. His OBP for those eight seasons is .333 and his SLG is .447. That’s probably a better guess at what he’ll be than anything he’s done since being promoted.
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His ISO also never approached what we’ve seen so far in San Diego. It topped out at .208 while in the Cubs system, and .236 in 109 games with the Padres AAA affiliate, The El Paso Chihuahuas. The .406 last year and .489 so far this season are also due to regress heavily.
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen a power prospect with contact issues burst out of the gate then fade. It’s not even the first time we’ve seen one that’s spent some time in San Diego. Will Middlebrooks says hello!
There hasn’t been as much swing and miss in Villanueva’s game while in the minors. But His combined MLB strikeout rate is 32.1%. With the jump in his power numbers, that could indicate an intentional shift in his approach that has him trading some contact for a bit more pop. There’s simply no way to know until he has more of a sample size under his belt. That means there’s some significant risk here.
Where does that leave us?
There is reason for optimism, however. Among hitters with 20 PA or more in 2018, Villanueva’s average exit velocity ranks 23rd in MLB at 94.2 mph. So he’s hitting the ball plenty hard. We can also use the data available at xStats.org to see what his expected slash line would be given his statcast data.
After making that adjustment, we’re looking at a .260/.360/.547 hitter with 3.5 HR. That’s no longer Barry Bonds level silly, but it’s still a solid fantasy third baseman. Even better, it’s likely an available solid fantasy third baseman as he’s only 44% owned in Yahoo leagues at the time this was written.
Need more convincing? His average launch angle is 23.9 degrees. If that number was being buoyed by a lot of balls in the FB% range at xStats, you might expect a lot of regression. Most home runs come from that range (26 to 39 degrees) but the closer you get to 39 degrees the more popups you hit.
Villanueva’s average launch angle is driven mostly by his HD% range (19 to 26 degrees) which, as I’ve mentioned before, is the most productive range tracked at the site. 28.6% of his balls in play are hit within that range. That’s good for 2nd in the majors. His average launch angle is 13th. He’s putting the ball in the air as well as anyone, and he’s doing it in the most productive range. All this while hitting the ball extremely hard. That’s going to lead to a lot of positive outcomes. Yes, there is regression coming, but the signs of a breakout are there.
Grab him while you can.
With how hot he is, that owned percentage is sure to skyrocket in the near future. So if you are looking for 3B help, jump at him while he’s still there. If you’re looking at adding depth, he’s probably worth stashing over that extra reliever or that pitching prospect you are hoping gets the call soon.
If you are hanging on to Walker Buehler or Michael Kopech hoping to see them bolster your staff soon, it might be worth risking the loss of that boon later in the season to get in on Villanueva now. Though hesitation there is more than warranted. I’d probably advise against dropping Ronald Acuna to open up a spot, too. Even with his AAA struggles, I would expect to see Acuna provide more fantasy value on the season once he is eventually called up. Outside of those cases, however, this is the kind of opportunity you make room for, even if it stings a little.
Christian Villanueva isn’t going to be the next Kris Bryant, but he could be a lesser version of Joey Gallo for power with a higher floor for BA. His value would be even greater in OBP leagues. If you can spare the room on your roster, give him a shot. It may pay off big and the downside risk is likely negligible if you are cutting the 25th man from your team.