Atlanta Braves relievers are walking the park in 2018

The Atlanta Braves bullpen has done a good job early in the season at limiting runs, however, they are walking a historic number of batters. The early success won’t continue unless they can limit the free passes.

The Atlanta Braves have gotten off to a surprisingly hot start, going 10-7 to start the season. They have done this largely on the back of an over-performing offense and an average pitching staff.

The bullpen has begun to be a concern, however, as the unit currently leads the majors by a wide margin in walk percentage. The pen has done well at limiting runs, but their success seems unsustainable as long as this walk issue persists.

The Braves bullpen currently has a 16.4% walk rate which is two points higher than the next highest team. Not only that but if this rate were to continue throughout the season, it would be the highest bullpen walk rate in the expansion era by over two percentage points. It is challenging for a team to be successful when its bullpen repeatedly issues free passes.

Since expansion, bullpens that walked at least 12% of batters averaged an ERA- and FIP- of 107 and 108 respectively. These run prevention statistics are era and league adjusted where 100 is average and lower is better.

Traditionally, bullpens with high walk rates don’t perform very well. The Braves’ bullpen, however, currently sports a 79 ERA- and a 93 FIP-. Both of these numbers are very good but can they maintain this level while continuing to walk this many batters?

Probably not. The Braves bullpen has a minuscule .256 batting average on balls in play, and they have only given up one home run so far this season. This equates to a 1.9% home run per fly ball ratio. This rate is completely unsustainable.

The league average rate has hovered around 12% the past couple of years, so the Braves will eventually start giving up the long ball. When that starts to happen, expect for the Braves bullpen to start giving up more runs. With that being said, all hope is not lost for the Braves to have a successful year from their relief corps — they have to get the walks in check.

A major league bullpen is a very fluid entity with arms coming and going throughout the season. If the Braves can replace some of the relievers that have struggled with their control they should be fine. They have already replaced one of the biggest culprits in Jose Ramirez who was sporting an astronomical 11.37 BB/9 number before being placed on the Disabled List.

Luke Jackson and Rex Brothers are no longer with the big league club either because of their gaudy walk totals. The Atlanta Braves have enough quality arms in the minor leagues that they should be able to replace pitchers that aren’t getting the job done.