After a 15-2 start, the Boston Red Sox lead the pack in the MLB standings. The offense is humming; the starting pitchers are cruising, even the bullpen is carrying its weight. This team is firing on all cylinders. How likely are they to keep it going?
I was really high on the Boston Red Sox coming into the season. Most people were, though many had the Yankees as the better team. Bleacher Report had the Yankees taking the division with 95 wins. USA TODAY had the Yankees winning it by four games.
Sporting News had 4 out of 4 writers pick the Yankees. ESPN had 21 out of 29 pick them. Yahoo had the Yankees by 5. All of the Sports Illustrated writers chose the Bronx Bombers. So did SBNation.
Pretty much everywhere you looked, the Yankees were expected to come out on top. But the Red Sox are off to a 15-2 start while the Yankees are languishing at 8-8. Were all of the projections wildly off base?
The old saying goes you can’t win the division in April, but you can lose it. The Yankees have dug themselves into a hole. While they are certainly capable of scratching and clawing their way out of it, the fact remains; they have dug themselves into a hole. The running projections at Fangraphs currently have the Red Sox finishing at 99-63 with the Yankees at 94-68. Fivethirtyeight.com has the Sox at 102 wins by season’s end and the Yankees matching their 2017 total at 91. But it’s only April.
Can they keep it up?
Instead of trying to guess exactly where the Red Sox will finish as October comes around, it might be better to look for signs that some of what they are doing on the field is sustainable. While having the best record in the majors is wonderful, how you got there is kind of important. After all, the Mets are only two games behind the Sox, and the Athletics have the second-best offense by wRC+, and neither was expected to be all that good.
Some other surprises include the Angels, who came into the current series with the Red Sox at 13-3 but who have been crushed in the first two games. Even after scoring just one run in the last two nights combined, their offense ranks third by wRC+. The Blue Jays are 12-5, the Dodgers are 8-9. Pittsburgh is 12-6 while the Cubs are 7-8. But as the other saying goes, you are never as good as your hot streaks or as bad as your cold streaks. It’s only April. So just how good are these Red Sox?