Boston Red Sox: What do we have in Tzu-Wei Lin?
By Damian Dydyn
“Two-Way” Lin is at it again! The young Taiwanese middle infielder is starting his second call up to the majors with another round of hitting better than expected. Can Tzu-Wei Lin make it stick this time around?
In late June of 2017, the Boston Red Sox surprised the world and called little known middle infielder Tzu-Wei Lin. Lin, who had been signed out of Taiwan in 2012 for a little more than $2.0M, had failed to materialize as a hitter and was considered a glove only prospect coming into that season.
At the time of his call-up, however, he had posted a 139 wRC+ for AA Portland over 48 games. The promise of his bat was back on the table.
In 25 games for the Boston Red Sox last season he hit .268/.369/.339. That left him just shy of a league average wOBA at .319 as well as a slightly below average wRC+ at 94. He was still only 23 years old, however, so those numbers were quite encouraging.
Tzu-Wei Lin isn’t exactly a burner on the basepaths, but he’ll swipe a bag here and there. He has very little home run power to speak of. But he is capable of going gap to gap and getting on base at a healthy clip. With plus defense at short or second, and the ability to play anywhere but 1B or catcher, he has the makings of a very useful utility player.
When Xander Bogaerts went down with an injury, the Boston Red Sox recalled Tzu-Wei Lin who has been with the club ever since. As a young, versatile player with options, expect to see him bounce back and forth this year. But does he have a long-term future with the club?
How real is the bat?
The breakout at AA last season may not be random noise. According to VP of player development Ben Crockett, Lin sat down with Carlos Febles, now the third base coach in Boston but then the manager at Portland. After a few seasons of Lin’s slap-happy approach at the plate, they discussed a change in his approach. Febles wanted him to get more aggressive.
"“It got him to buy in and trust that while this was maybe different from what he was doing on his way up, that it was going to really help him to be way more aggressive, try to impact the ball, even though he was a smaller guy,” said Crockett. “Just because of the bat-to-ball ability, he’s not going to strike out a lot. We’re not worried about that and he doesn’t need to worry about it earlier.”"
The results were immediately leading to the previously mentioned 139 wRC+ and the success at the major league level that followed. When he was sent back down, he went to AAA Pawtucket, not back to Portland. He struggled at the plate over 35 more games to close out the season. When he returned to the majors earlier this month, he was back to smoking the ball.
The 24-year-old has a 172 wRC+ over 7 games since April 9th. And, unlike his 2017 major league balls in play, he’s hitting the ball quite hard this time around. Last year his average exit velocity was just 81.7 mph. So far this season he’s at 92.0 which would rank 37th in the majors if he qualified.
Unsustainable Launch Angle.
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A lot of that has to do with his 54.6% Low Drive Rate (from xStats.org). This is the second most productive range of launch angles to put the ball into play at (10-19 degrees), and is the closest range to where you see the highest exit velocities on average, (0-10 degrees), so it makes sense that he’s hitting the ball hard.
It’s not likely, however, that he’ll maintain that rate. Last season’s leader in balls hit in the LD% range was Daniel Murphy at 23.7%.
So there is some regression baked into his success so far, beyond his .545 BABIP. Given his LD% and average EV, his expected BABIP would be .490, so there are additional .055 points of luck or poor defense propping that number up.
What do the Boston Red Sox actually have here?
Chances are we’re still looking at something around a league average hitter when things normalize for him. Given his plus glove at multiple positions and the decent speed, however, that’s a really nice utility player.
Think prime years Brock Holt with a better glove. There is just as much versatility there, but he is a legitimate plus defender up the middle while Holt was only ever above average on his best days.
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Tzu-Wei Lin isn’t the kind of player you want starting at short every day, so he doesn’t represent a potential replacement for Xander Bogaerts should the Boston Red Sox not extend him before the 2020 season, but he may be the perfect replacement for Brock Holt should he not return to form or get too expensive.