Cincinnati Reds issues go back to their inability to develop pitching
It has been a long time since the glory days of the Cincinnati Reds. Given their inability to develop pitching, their current futility may last even longer.
With the Cincinnati Reds languishing at 3-15 on the season, it is easy to blame Bryan Price for the team’s failures. He had managed into his fifth season, never finishing better than fourth in the standings. Overall, Price, who got the axe on Thursday, had a 279-387 record, never having a winning season, the worst winning percentage of any manager in team history with over 500 games at the helm.
And yet, the problems go far beyond Price and his competence as a manager. Since the Reds last won the World Series in 1990, they have had only seen winning seasons. Out of those seven seasons, three of them, along with three of the Reds four playoff appearances since that last World Series victory, came under the guidance of Dusty Baker, the man who Price replaced.
Needless to say, the problems facing the Reds extend beyond whomever is managing the franchise. Poor decisions, and the frustrations of the front office and ownership, have played a part in their struggles over the past few seasons. Baker had been allowed to leave after his 2013 campaign, where the Reds won 90 games but lost in the Wild Card Game. Price then went on to a fourth place finish in 2014, with 76 wins, before bottoming out the following year.
However, short of Dusty Baker, it may have been a futile quest to imagine that any manager would succeed with the Cincinnati Reds. Their complete inability to develop pitching, or even acquire competent arms, has been their undoing.
Cincinnati Reds pitchers since 1991
In order to find sustained success, typically a team needs to have solid pitching. That has not been the case for the Cincinnati Reds since they last won the World Series.
Since the start of the 1991 campaign, the Reds pitching has been generally atrocious. There have been solid years here and there, and some dominant performances, but the body of work, as a whole, has been miserable. This is particularly true when looking at their pitching Wins Above Replacement since the 1990 World Championship banner was raised.
Since that time, Jose Rijo leads all Reds pitchers, posting a 16.4 WAR. The only other pitcher to post a WAR above 10.0 is Johnny Cueto, who was worth 14.7 WAR in his five and a half years in Cincinnati. The immortal Aaron Harang ranks third, with a sharp dropoff to his 7.7 WAR. Amongst the top ten are pitchers such as Elmer Dessens (fifth, 5.4), Pete Harnisch (ninth, 4.4), and Mat Latos (tenth, 3.9). This is hardly a list of pitchers that inspires any thoughts of victory.
Meanwhile, over that same time frame, 85 pitchers have managed to post a WAR over 10.0, including the likes of Brad Radke, Jamie Moyer, Pedro Astacio, and Kelvim Escobar. If that search is extended out to 7.7 WAR to match Harang’s total in a Reds uniform, we find 120 pitchers that match that criteria. Other legends like Steve Reed, Francisco Cordova, Kevin Tapani, and the bloated corpse of Sid Fernandez were all better than Harang.
Chances are, one would have to work really hard to only find two pitchers in nearly three decades that were better than Aaron Harang. However, the Cincinnati Reds general ineptitude when it comes to starting pitching extends even further back, lasting to the end of the Big Red Machine.
The Cincinnati Reds four decades of pitching woes
Back in the 1970s, the Cincinnati Reds were one of the great teams in baseball. The Big Red Machine only had one year where they did not finish either first or second in their division. They reached the postseason seven times, with four World Series appearances. The Reds took home two championships in that time, as they were one of the great teams of their time.
However, once the 1980s came about, they began to struggle. Those struggles came about due to their inability to develop their own pitchers, which began during their run of success. Just take a look at what they have produced, as pointed out by USA Today’s Sean Lahman:
Starting pitchers Reds have developed since 1978, ranked by career WAR:
— Sean Lahman (@seanlahman) April 19, 2018
26.9 Mario Soto
25.4 Johnny Cueto
19.7 Tom Browning
8.2 Mike Leake
5.8 Homer Bailey
5.6 Ron Robinson
That's 40 years...
This is their career total, not their total with the Reds.
If we use 1978 as the starting point, then Soto becomes the best pitcher to put on a Reds uniform. This also moves John Franco into a tie with Aroldis Chapman as the fifth most valuable Reds pitcher in the past 40 years, at 6.3 WAR. Meanwhile, 72 pitchers in the past four decades have produced more value, based on WAR, than Cueto in his time in a Reds uniform. Stretching that list out to the Harang Line of 7.7 WAR, 165 pitchers have been better than the Reds fourth best pitcher.
Obviously, there is a problem here. And it goes beyond the struggles of just one manager.
The Cincinnati Reds rebuild has not gone to plan
With pitching being as important a commodity as it is, one can understand why the Cincinnati Reds have struggled to find success since 1990.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
It is also fair to wonder whether or not that will change, at least in the near future. The Reds are in the midst of yet another rebuild, and once again find themselves looking for that ace pitcher to front their rotation. They had thought that Luis Castillo was ready to emerge as that pitcher, but he has struggled in the early going, allowing 17 runs in his 22.2 innings. Somehow, Homer Bailey has been the Reds best starter in the early going.
There are certainly intriguing arms in the Reds system. Castillo captured the imagination with his impressive 2017 campaign, posting a 3.12 ERA and a 1.075 WHiP in his 89.1 innings, while notching 98 strikeouts. Tyler Mahle fired a perfect game in the minors, and was considered a top 100 prospect heading into 2018. Amir Garrett has a live arm, but may profile as a reliever. But that true top of the rotation arm is not there.
That is not to say it does not come along. Vladimir Gutierrez and Hunter Greene could be front line starters, but they are years away. Even then, Gutierrez may end up in the bullpen, especially as he wore down last year and was used as a reliever in Cuba. The talent is there, but he could become the next Raisel Iglesias instead of the next Johnny Cueto.
Bryan Price may not have been the best manager in the baseball world, but he is hardly the only reason why the Cincinnati Reds have struggled. Their decades long inability to develop pitching has been an even greater factor in their failures since 1990.