Miguel Cabrera (Fantasy Baseball owned: 97% Yahoo, 92% ESPN, 98% CBS, 99% Fantrax)
This is more of a suggestion not to drop a player in your Fantasy Baseball leagues, in Miguel Cabrera. Miggy is nearly fully owned in all but ESPN, and even there the chances of finding him on the waiver wire or in the FA pile are very low. But he’s not the 99% owned across the board guy he used to be because his decline phase has definitely kicked off. So why should you hold on to him?
The HR and RBI’s aren’t there yet, but they will be. Maybe not in the 35/130+ range he used to live in, but something closer to his 2014 is certainly in reach. That season he posted 25 HR and 101 RBI with a wRC+ of 148. So far this season he’s at 2 HR and 13 RBI with a wRC+ of 138. And he’s still capable of hitting the ball really hard.
He has the 21st hardest hit ball of the season at 114.4 MPH, the 3rd highest average exit velocity at 95.3 and the 12th most balls hit at 95 MPH or harder. His Brls/PA are only at 159th because he’s still hitting the ball on the ground a bit too much, but the hard contact is a good sign. He’s also drawing plenty of walks at 13.9%, 34th in the majors so far. So for those of you in OBP leagues, he’s already providing some significant value even without the HR or RBIs. If you have him on your roster, give him some more time. If you see him on the wire or in the FA pool, snatch him up before he’s gone.
Get in on the ground floor:
This group of players has a much lower owned percentage and present you with a much better opportunity to pick up some significant value for the low cost of dropping your 25th man. They aren’t necessarily slam-dunk adds, but if you have room to stash or are looking to plug a hole because of injury, this is your place to shop.
Randal Grichuk (Fantasy Baseball owned: 5% Yahoo, 7% ESPN, 28% CBS, 39% Fantrax)
Randal Grichuk has the 6th most Brls/PA in baseball. The only names ahead of him are J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Joey Gallo and Javier Baez. His hardest hit ball is 114.1 MPH (anything over 112 is elite exit velocity and not something you can luck into). And that 91.5 MPH average EV is 46th in baseball. So, like Jed Lowrie, he’s hitting the ball extremely hard. Unlike Lowrie, the results aren’t there yet.
Grichuk has a 23 wRC+ with an .086/.206/.224 slash, 2 HR and just 5 RBIs. So there’s a reason he is virtually unowned in Yahoo and ESPN leagues. With a BABIP of .088, he’s going to snap out of his funk sooner or later, and with how hard he’s hitting the ball, it could be sooner.
This is a guy capable of hitting 25-30 HR in a full season who hits plenty of fly balls and is in a relatively potent lineup. For now, Teoscar Hernandez has jumped ahead of him in the depth chart in right field, but with a .400 BABIP and a history that suggests he’s nowhere near this good, Grichuk will get his chance to take back that starting job eventually.
There is some risk here, as Grichuk is hitting the ball within that productive launch angle range (0 to 39 degrees) just 52.8% of the time, good for only 247 in the majors. So some of that poor BABIP is due to his popup and dribbler rates. Even still, with exit velocities as good as his, good things will start happening.
If you have room to stash him on your bench, he’s worth tucking away for the next few weeks.