MLB Top Prospects: Top 10 RHP prospects for 2018
After exploring both the team top 10 lists, overall top 150, and system rankings in our MLB Top Prospects series, we finish with a look at positional rankings. Today, we look at the top 10 right-handed pitching prospects for 2018.
Our MLB Top Prospects series at Call to the Pen is spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten right-handed pitching prospects for 2018.
We will explore each position with a top 10 list, and then after we get to #1, don’t leave as we will also highlight one player who is “on the rise” and could factor into the positional rankings after the 2018 season if they hold their current trajectory.
Each of these MLB Top Prospect rankings have come through the hundreds of games each summer Ben watches as well as speaking with multiple people throughout the game and gauging their opinions as well on players he has not had a good look at. This is a personal opinion, and a ranking position higher or lower than industry standard does not indicate “liking” or “hating” a certain player more or less – by just showing up on this list, there is a degree of appreciation of the talent a player brings!
We will start each position list with an overall look at the position itself within the game and the strength of the position.
Position overview
Outfield is the deepest of the hitting positions in rankings, but none is as deep as right-handed pitchers in minor league baseball right now. There is a tremendous depth of impressive right-handed arms among MLB top prospects.
Most of this list will be those pitchers who are at the upper levels of the minor leagues as the depth of right-handed pitchers among MLB top prospects allows to be picky and require a pitcher to prove himself in the upper levels of minor league baseball before getting jumped too much on a list. Only one player in the top 10 will open his 2018 season outside of the upper minors.
There is one pitcher on this list who will miss all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, and one on the list missed all of 2017 due to TJS. The surgery has become prominent enough to put some level of assumption to the recovery from surgery, however, it is not 100% assured.
Let’s take a look at the right-handers….
Next: #9 and #10
10. Alex Reyes, St. Louis Cardinals
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/29/1994 (23)
2018 level: Disabled List
Info: Reyes was a legit top-5 player in early lists for the 2017 season before he popped his elbow in February and ended up having Tommy John surgery and missing the entire 2017 season. He is working his way back to the mound in games, which should happen by mid-2018.
Before his injury, there was reason Reyes was considered one of MLB top prospects
Before his injury, there was reason Reyes was considered one of MLB top prospects. He had a fastball that could run up to triple digits without a lot of effort and sat in the upper 90s. It’s not just the fastball, though, as Reyes has a tremendous arsenal of pitches.
Reyes’ best offspeed pitch is his hammer curve that leaves batters weak in the knees, but he saw his change that works around 88-90 MPH begin to show as an above-average to plus pitch in games in 2016. He even used the pitch out of the bullpen for the Cardinals, showing his trust in the pitch as part of a true three-pitch repertoire.
The Cardinals wanted to ease Reyes back into things, and seeing Jordan Hicks come up and have success in the role that many assumed Reyes could ease into this season at the major league level could give the opportunity for Reyes to spend the entire year starting in the minor leagues.
9. Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/4/1997 (20)
2018 level: AAA Gwinnett Stripers
Info: While many pitchers on MLB top prospects lists will have velocity readings on their fastball in the upper 90s, that’s simply not what Soroka does on the mound. Instead, he’s a pitcher who has 5 listed pitches – two-seamer, four-seamer, slider, curve, and change, but he can manipulate them such that he really shows you 8-9 looks on how the ball will break, meaning hitters really have no idea what is coming.
The Braves challenged Soroka with a move up to AA as a teenager in 2017, and he responded by simply being one of the most mature pitchers on the mound in AA. This in spite of the fact that Soroka has yet to face a batter younger than him as a professional since being drafted in 2015.
While his stuff may not lead to 300 strikeouts in any season of his career, and he may not be the type that ever puts up a triple-digit velocity pitch on the scoreboard, Soroka is a guy who could front a rotation for many years in the way he approaches his work on the mound. Braves brass are already in love with him, and it would not surprise at all if he was in the Atlanta rotation by midseason, still not yet old enough to legally purchase alcohol!
Next: #7 and #8
8. Brent Honeywell, Tampa Bay Rays
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 3/31/1995 (23)
2018 level: Disabled List
Info: Most have recognized Honeywell due to his screwball for the last few seasons as so few pitchers throw the pitch that it’s a bit of a novelty to see him throw one. Honeywell has established himself as an MLB top prospect, dominating in the Futures Game in 2017 with an array of pitches, not just a “trick” one.
Not blessed with tremendous size at 6’2″ and 185-190 pounds, Honeywell has built up his body and worked hard on developing his entire pitch mix to be something that can keep hitters off their game even facing him multiple times in a season. He can touch 97 with his fastball, but it’s the movement and command of the pitch that makes it a borderline plus-plus pitch.
His offspeed collection of weapons is vast and can even be manipulated to create more wrinkles. He works with an above average curve and slider. His screwball is a plus pitch, but primarily because he throws it just a few times per game as while it is a quality pitch, it’s not so much so that he could throw it 30% of the time and not have hitters sit on the pitch. His change has taken the biggest step forward over the last two seasons, really working as a plus pitch, able to mimic either his four-seam or two-seam fastball.
Honeywell had Tommy John surgery this spring and will miss the entire 2018 season and likely some of the start of the 2019 season, but he’s young enough that he should be considered a prime prospect still when he makes his debut next season for the Rays.
7. Triston McKenzie, Cleveland Indians
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/2/1997 (20)
2018 level: Disabled List
Info: Often seeing a listing of 6’5″ and 165 pounds on a player card when a player is entering his third full professional season and fourth overall is brushed away as a draft listing and likely not close to accurate currently. With McKenzie, it’s quite close to the right number, though he’s not seemed to show any negative effects from his long, super-lean frame.
(McKenzie) gets plenty of whiffs on his fastball due to extension from his incredibly long arms and the spin his long fingers put on the ball
This spring, McKenzie faced soreness in his arm, but he attributed that to ramping up his arm too hard, too fast this spring. He’s rested and done exercises and should return soon, which is very, very positive news for Indians fans.
When he’s at his best, McKenzie’s stuff is simply not fair. He can touch 95-97 with his fastball and works in the 92-93 range deep into starts, though he tends to lose some of his “reach back” velocity deeper into games. He gets plenty of whiffs on his fastball due to extension from his incredibly long arms and the spin his long fingers put on the ball.
His offspeed stuff is headlined by a curveball with tremendous depth and spin as well, though it tends to tally more weak grounders and pop ups than swing and miss. His change has come along plenty, and he showed the ability to manipulate the change with some cut to the pitch late in the season that could be an incredible weapon for him going forward.
McKenzie should take the hill in AA this season, getting his first taste of the upper minors in his age 20 season, and he could push for some big league time in 2019. With Carlos Carrasco hitting free agency after 2020 and starters Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer into the expensive end of arbitration by that point, the Indians would love to have McKenzie establish himself as the next big arm in Cleveland sooner rather than later.
Next: #5 and #6
6. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/28/1994 (23)
2018 level: AAA Oklahoma City Dodgers
Info: Long-limbed but flat-out skinny coming out of college, Buehler used time recovering from Tommy John surgery after he was drafted to build up his body. While he’s not a 220-pound beast, he is much better filled into his frame now and looks more in control of his body on the mound with that additional strength.
Buehler also returned from TJS with another new weapon – triple digits on his fastball. The Dodgers took advantage of that in the bullpen in the latter part of the 2017 season, but Buehler’s ability to show feel for four pitches put him back in AAA in the rotation to open the season in 2018.
While he does have incredible top-end velocity, Buehler does not get a ton of movement on his fastball, relying instead on a pair of plus breaking pitches to baffle hitters and get plenty of swing and miss. His slider has has reports of touching 95 and regularly sits in the low-90s in velocity with deep, wipe out break to it, while his curve is more of a power variety, working in the low-80s. His change is still a work in progress, but he showed the ability to control the pitch in 2017, which is a huge step forward.
With his narrow-shouldered frame and incredible velocity, many worry that Buehler is simply ticking toward his next major surgery, but he does repeat his delivery much better as he’s returned from surgery, using increased strength and incredible athleticism to hold his body in premier body positioning.
The Dodgers called Buehler up recently for a start, and he could certainly become the right-handed Robin to Clayton Kershaw‘s Batman soon for the Dodgers if they are patient this season.
5. Sixto Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/29/1998 (19)
2018 level: high-A Clearwater Threshers
Info: Hearing the name Sixto either makes you think that the player has a “cultural” background or else was named by 60s flower children. It’s definitely the former, and like many Latin arms, while he has the numbers and movement on his stuff, Sanchez is smaller in stature than scouts would prefer, standing just 6′ tall and under 200 pounds.
Sanchez is smaller in stature than scouts would prefer, standing just 6′ tall and under 200 pounds
His stuff, however, is definitely “big”. The Phillies got Sanchez for a measly $35K signing bonus initially, and they’ve seen his velocity blossom to where he is consistently topping triple digits late in starts, sitting 95-97 throughout with excellent movement on the heater.
His secondaries took a big step forward in 2017, with his changeup being his previous best offspeed pitch, and it still flashes plus with excellent sink, but he showed the ability to manipulate his slider in two ways – one a hard, quick breaker with mid-80s velocity, and one that works more like a sweeper and sits more 81-83. If he could add just a tick of velocity to his slider, he would have a dominant three-pitch mix.
Sanchez is the farthest away of any pitcher on this list, opening the season in high-A, but he’s also got arguably the highest season, with very teachable instincts for pitching and an easy delivery that only requires him to be more consistent in holding his arm slot.
Next: #3 and #4
4. Mitch Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/4/1996 (22)
2018 level: AA Altoona Curve
Info: Keller had moments of dominance surrounding a back injury in 2017 that hindered his ability to finish on his pitches again in 2018, Keller can continue on his path to becoming the next ace in Pittsburgh.
With easy velocity and plus to double-plus command of his entire repertoire, Keller is an impressive pitcher on the mound
Keller has fairly humble roots, an Iowa draft prospect that jumped up late due to added velocity before his senior season. The Pirates grabbed him in the second round, and he’s produced like a top 5 selection ever since.
With easy velocity and plus to double-plus command of his entire repertoire, Keller is an impressive pitcher on the mound. He does work heavily off of his fastball, and that can be both a positive and negative thing, as his heater can run up to 98-99 and sits mid-90s deep into games with plenty of movement, so it’s a good pitch to lean on, but too much of a good thing can go awry.
The Pirates have worked with Keller to trust his above-average curve and developing change more early in counts, and he’s shown more and more feel for when to sequence in both pitches. His change has flashes of pure brilliance, and if he can consistently master the pitch, he could have one of the better right-handed change ups in the entire game.
Keller opened the 2018 season with AA Altoona, but he has shown a proclivity to jumping levels in season, so don’t be surprised if he’s in AAA by the end of the year and knocking on the major league door in 2019.
3. Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/30/1996 (21)
2018 level: AAA Charlotte Knights
Info: There just seems to be something about Texas high school arms. Every year there is one in the draft that seems to blow up into way more than he was as an amateur and suddenly becomes either a dominant closer or top of the rotation type of arm.
Kopech has always had that ability, but he’s always also had the concern of whether he knew where the pitch was going when he released it as well. Add in some off-field stuff early on in his career, and there were some flags that had evaluators questioning if he would be able to ever sniff the ceiling of his talent.
After an incident with a teammate before the 2016 season, Kopech’s appeared much more focused on his craft, and the results have been evident. His fastball still routinely tops 100 MPH with incredible movement for a pitch at that velocity, but he now is able to work with a two-seam variety as well that has helped him to stay within himself in throwing the fastball.
His low-90s change and ridiculous slider are both plus pitches when located, and Kopech has started to do that more frequently as the White Sox worked out kinks in his delivery in 2017 and into 2018.
The biggest hurdle left for Kopech is simply consistency from game to game showing up with the same mechanics and ability to command. If he can do that, he’ll be an absolute star.
Next: #1 and #2
2. Forrest Whitley, Houston Astros
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 9/15/1997 (20)
2018 level: Suspended
Info: Drafted in 2016 in the middle of the first round after he’d taken off a bunch of bad weight in the offseason before his senior season, Whitley absolutely dominated his pro debut.
The Astros wanted to take things wise with their 6’7″ righty, so they sent the teen to low-A to open 2017, but he simply improved at every level he ascended in 2017, improving his walk rate in high-A and then improving his ability to miss barrels in AA to finish off the season. There were big, big expectations for Whitley, and he was hoping to show out in spring training to possibly earn a AAA assignment at just 20.
Instead, Whitley made the mistake of using a banned stimulant, and he was incredibly apologetic and accepted responsibility for his actions. He will miss the first 50 games of the season, however, and most likely, he’ll open in AA, hoping to reach AAA by the end of the year now, which is certainly a disappointment for Whitley.
At his best, Whitley has a fastball that he can add and take away, sitting around 94, but sometimes working more 91-93 and sometimes working 95-96, touching 97 on his top end with excellent ability to generate plane and deception from his over-the-top arm slot.
Whitley’s slider has incredible late break, and his curve has huge break, but has the look of his fastball for just long enough to leave hitters absolutely stumped at the plate. He began to throw a change at the end of 2017 that was easily a plus pitch, diving at the toes of righty hitters with its late movement.
While nearly no one wants to say “ace” when projecting a pitcher for obvious health risk reasons, Whitley had plenty in the offseason making an argument for him as the top prospect in the entire game. He should be fun to track this season.
1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/5/1994 (23)
2018 level: MLB Los Angeles Angels
Info: Simply the most-hyped prospect to enter the game since…well…perhaps ever, Ohtani has been a player who was considered an instant member of MLB top prospects the second he signed since he was in his mid-teens. Now 23, fully physically developed, and with an arsenal on the mound to match, he’s easily the top guy on this list.
fully physically developed, and with an arsenal on the mound to match, (Ohtani)’s easily the top guy on this list
Ohtani originally asked Japanese teams to allow him to come to the United States out of high school, but he was drafted, meaning his rights were “owned” by an NPD team, so he took his place in the league, simply dominating hitters as a 19, 20, and 21 year old as he filled out his 6’4″ frame.
While Ohtani has incredible power at the plate as well, it’s on the mound where he has the highest ceiling, and it’s not because of his triple-digit velocity, though that certainly doesn’t hurt. It is the use of five or six pitches, all of which are at least above-average, that give him the ceiling to be a dominant ace.
His best pitch, which has been labeled by some as a splitter, by others as a forkball, is easily his best pitch, able to add and subtract velocity on the pitch, and dial up low-90s velocity on the pitch on the top end while repeating his fastball delivery perfectly, leaving hitters looking foolish as the pitch dives late in its path to the plate.
Ohtani will have his growing pains in the major leagues for certain, but he’s shown plenty of ability to bounce back from growing pains in his career, and he could be an absolute star in the league with his ability to be a top rotation starter and hit a few days each week.
Next: On the rise
On the rise: Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays
Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/20/1996 (21)
2018 level: Extended Spring
Info: A huge righty (6’6″, 240-250 pounds), Pearson did not draw much pro attention as a high school senior as he was long, but hadn’t filled in, so a low-90s fastball was not that attractive. He first enrolled with Florida International then Junior College of Central Florida after his first year at FIU, adding plenty of strength and a quick-developing feel for not just one offspeed pitch but three!
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He worked out of the bullpen initially in JuCo, seeing his fastball run up to triple digits, which got plenty talking about him. When he was moved to the rotation, he sat at 93-95, touching 96-97 with excellent late movement and tremendous plane.
Pearson’s curve and slider tended to run together a bit as an amateur, but with work as a pro, he’s seen good separation, and he’s actually shown some ability to manipulate his slider in two ways to get one with more sweeping action and one with more of a traditional bite.
Pearson’s change has excellent late movement, and many scouts like it better than either of his breaking pitches, grading it as a plus pitch presently with room to grow. Add in his athleticism, and Pearson is a guy who could not only move quickly, but he could have an incredibly high upside.
Next: CTTP's Top 150 prospects
So of the MLB top prospects, that is the top 10 right-handed pitching prospects for 2018. Who is too high? Too low? Missing entirely from the list? Comment below!!