Phillies: Stars or placeholders

Whether the Philadelphia Phillies are playing or enjoying the offseason, fans and writers evaluate them differently than general manager Matt Klentak with his entire staff employed to analyze even the smallest detail.

Measuring impact:

The general public receives answers from Philadelphia Phillies management like a governmental page of confidential information with a handful of redactions. Despite this, the faithful believe they have the unshakable ability to spot talent –or lack thereof.

IN OTHER WORDS: “The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to the future.” – Mark Twain

On the other hand, GMs have a different perspective regarding rookies. Through experience, they realize the average player makes an impact in his third season or after three campaigns. The others are the exceptions.

Based solely on service time, this article considers a second half followed by the first half of a 162 to be one year. So, three summers could take four seasons.

Pushing the hopeful in the wrong direction, a coach can initiate changes for a youngster with an unorthodox approach. In fact, Jake Arrieta had immediate success when he eliminated the unwanted adjustments. Yes, a three-year detour. But it’s not the norm.

Accomplishing stardom immediately is a rare feat, but many fans today decide a rookie’s value based on his first few months in the majors. Rhys Hoskins is passing that test, but this guy didn’t: .196, 18 home runs, 52 RBIs and a .697 OPS. Yeah, Michael Jack Schmidt! He followed that with a .282 mark, 36 bombs and 116 RBIs.

After the last All-Star break, Aaron Nola dominated the National League for two months. But his achievement came after two campaigns of improvement. Ergo, in his third 162.

While Arrieta is an example of success after roughly three seasons, Cesar Hernandez came of age in 2016 following approximately two full summers of service. He went from .248 with a .294 OBP on June 20 to finish at .294 with a .371 OBP. Translation: He wasn’t getting a rest, the skipper benched him, and a coach tipped him off.

Perceptions:

To reiterate their progression, these stars reached their impact year: Hoskins in the first, Schmidt in the second, Nola and Hernandez in the third and Arrieta in the fourth. Yes, if a fan reaches a conclusion during the first campaign, it will probably be inaccurate. Standard forecast: Players improve.

The faithful view a rookie three different ways: They are okay with, like, or dislike. For instance, the locals had favored Scott Kingery before he even arrived. And they were okay with Jerad Eickhoff, but they didn’t take long to dislike Dom Brown.

For now, J.P. Crawford is disappointing some fans, and his .214 average last September was their first impression. Others are already giving up on him and suggesting a trade. Of course, he could turn things around. But if he doesn’t, the paying customers might not be so forgiving in July.

Of interest here, posters on a positive Phillies site stated Adam Morgan can’t hold a lead, Nick Pivetta can’t go past five innings, Aaron Altherr is broken, and Crawford can’t beat the shift. The difference is the negative Phils site had recommendations to improve the team.

In fact, many on both sites want Kapler fired: They’re winning despite him. One fan proposed starting Nick Williams and Kingery every day, sitting Carlos Santana, Maikel Franco and Altherr; and the armchair GM also questioned Franco still being here. However, others were also somewhat abrasive regarding Santana.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “Have you ever considered that your perception of reality could be wrong? If you haven’t, this is a pretty good sign that it is.” – Ernie J Zelinski