Fantasy Baseball Week 5: Five players to target and two to drop
With scoring period 4 in the books, we look ahead to the next week of Fantasy Baseball with some suggestions on how you can tweak your roster and gain an edge!
This week we take a look at some Fantasy Baseball drop candidates, a couple of stash options and some buy-low candidates. And in case you’ve had your head buried in the sand, we remind you of a significant promotion that happened earlier in the week.
Drop it like it’s hot?
These first two pitchers are struggling mightily, and owners are jumping ship in droves. Should you be one of them?
Fantasy Baseball: Luis Castillo (69% Yahoo, 62% ESPN, 83% CBS, 95% Fantrax)
Castillo’s ERA is up to 7.85 with a 5.59 FIP and a 4.39 xFIP. His K/9 is down 2.34 from last season and, perhaps more concerning, his velocity is down 2 MPH from where he ended the 2017 season. And that includes a dip of nearly 1 MPH from where he started this season.
While that doesn’t conclusively mean injury, it has to be worrisome for fantasy owners. At best we are looking at a mechanical issue that has him out of sorts but at this point, cutting bait isn’t a bad idea.
Additionally, his walk rate is up to 4.08, so he won’t be posting a helpful WHIP. Loss of velocity combined with a loss of control means no one should be surprised if we hear about elbow trouble in the next few weeks.
Castillo’s 2017 debut was very encouraging, finishing with a 3.12 ERA,, and a 9.87 K/9, but pitching in front of a bad Red team means wins aren’t in the profile for now. He’s suffering through a .330 BABIP, but something isn’t right with him at present. You can probably find a better use for that roster spot.
If you are in a deeper league and can afford to stash him, it might be worth waiting it out a little longer. And in deep keeper and dynasty leagues, he’s worth tucking away as his long-term ceiling is still enticing. But don’t pass up a chance to pick up a solid starter if one is on the Fantasy Baseball wire (or our pitcher stash suggestion below).
Fantasy Baseball: Drew Pomeranz (51% Yahoo, 40% ESPN, 85% CBS, 92% Fantrax)
Drew Pomeranz has not been good in his first two starts. His 7.27 ERA is right up there with Castillo’s, and his 6.53 FIP is worse. The 3.82 xFIP suggests a little bad luck on home runs, but that’s obfuscated by the fact that he’s giving up a ton of hard contact. Only 4% of his balls in play have been soft contact according to Fangraphs.com.
And like Castillo, Pomeranz has seen his velocity drop by more than 2 MPH since last season. He averaged 91.78 MPH on his fastball in 2017 after 91.93 in 2016. This season it’s down to 89.37 MPH. Considering the forearm flexor strain that sidelined him to start the year, fantasy owners should be very cautious with him for a few starts. It’s probably best to keep him on the bench until he shows some consistent success.
With this being just his second start there remains the possibility that he’s still ramping up his arm speed as he would have in spring training, so it may not be prudent to drop him just yet. If you are in dire need of pitching help, you may not have a choice, but if you can spare the bench spot for another start or two, I’d recommend doing so.
Pomeranz posted two straight seasons of more than 170 IP with identical 3.32 ERAs and more than a strikeout per inning. If you are looking for good signs in his awful start to 2018, he’s posting an 11.42 K/9 so far which means that when he’s not getting crushed, he’s missing bats at least.
Having a little patience here might make some sense, but don’t wait too long to pull the ripcord.
Fantasy Baseball Stash options.
Fantasy Baseball: Luiz Gohara (9% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 48% CBS, 76% Fantrax)
The Atlanta Braves activated Gohara from the DL this week and immediately optioned him to AAA. This isn’t surprising as the big lefty will need to ramp up to full strength and is expected to return to the mound for the Braves in mid-May sometime.
Gohara throws a high 90’s plus fastball with an above average to plus slider in the mid-80’s. He also features a changeup and gets swings and misses at a well above average rate. The hard-throwing lefty has the potential to be a solid number 2 pitcher if he can keep his walk rate down.
Early in his minor league career, he struggled with control posting BB/9’s in the 5’s across two levels in the Mariners system in 2014 and 2015. He took a step forward in 2016 and was traded to Atlanta in early 2017.
Some scouts see a young C.C. Sabathia in Gohara which hints at the front of the rotation potential, but with a three-pitch mix (as opposed to 4) that might be a bit too optimistic. That said, he’s not owned heavily in any platform, but Fantrax and most of those are likely keeper or dynasty leagues. If you can spare a roster spot for another month, he could pay dividends on the investment. If you don’t, someone else likely will soon. His ownership isn’t spiking yet, but by this time next week, it might be jumping.
Get in early on this guy. A strong start or two in Gwinnett is all it will take to get the ball rolling.
Fantasy Baseball: Jung Ho Kang (2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN, N/A CBS, 8% Fantrax)
This entry will only be focusing on Jung Ho Kang’s on the field value. We don’t mean to take his off the field issues lightly, but the hope is that if he got his passport back, he has taken steps to deal with his drinking problem. He also still has a sexual assault case pending in Chicago that needs to be resolved and obviously takes precedence over his getting back on the field.
But if we are looking at what he can do on the field, it’s hard to ignore the potential value in stashing him while he gets his status sorted out and his game up to speed. He’ll start in extended spring training, and there is no timetable for his return to big league action.
Even with all of that, Jung Ho Kang is someone who has posted a career wRC+ of 129 with 36 HR in 837 PA. That’s an impact player. He has the talent to move quickly through his ramp-up phase and push his way back onto the roster in Pittsburgh, but even the most optimistic estimate would probably be a second-half return.
A steep price.
This is a tough ask for most fantasy teams. Burning any roster spot for up to two months is something that many owners just can’t afford to do. But if you can, whether it’s because you have an N/A or minor league roster you can stash him on or because you have a deep enough bench to just tuck him away — which could well lead to a more valuable addition to your team than any trade you might pull off as the deadline approaches.
Jung Ho Kang will face a bit of competition for playing time when he returns to the Pirates. Colin Moran and Jordy Mercer have the left side of the infield locked down, so he will likely be trying to take the starting job from Adam Frazier. This may lead to multi-position eligibility since Jung HO Kang can already be used as a third baseman.
Jung Ho Kang is not an automatic add in all formats, but he will likely be scooped up in most leagues at some point in the next couple weeks. If you are one of the teams with room to stash him, you may be glad you did later in the year.
Buy low.
Fantasy Baseball: Leonys Martin (14% Yahoo, 27% ESPN, 29% CBS, 50% Fantrax)
The Tigers outfielder appears to be having a breakout at age 30. As unlikely as that is, at the very least he’s hot. Martin is capable of 15 HR and 25 SB over a full season and could provide your team with another 10 and 20 by the end of the 2018 campaign.
The .274 batting average and .337 OBP may be sustainable, but the .484 slugging will undoubtedly come back down. Of course, he only has a .306 BABIP and has traded some medium contact for hard. His current 31.6% hard contact rate is a career high, as is his FB%. At 57.5% we may have an indication of intentional changes in his approach. This provides hope that at least some of this break out is real.
His flyball rate is also encouraging in that 20.6% of his balls in play fall within the 19 to 26-degree range for launch angle, which is highly productive. With just 8.2% of his balls in play in the 0 to 10-degree range, he’s traded a ton of ground balls for productive fly balls.
Even if this is just a hot streak, he may settle in at something better than we’ve seen from him before, and that would make him worth rostering. If all you get is a solid bench bat, that’s still plenty valuable and an excellent addition for little cost.
Unless your outfield is stacked, you should consider making room for Leonys Martin.
Fantasy Baseball: Domingo Santana (61% Yahoo, 55% ESPN, 70% CBS, 86% Fantrax)
Domingo Santana broke out in a big way in 2017 with a 126 wRC+, 30 HR and 15 SB. Unfortunately, with the acquisitions of Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain, Santana’s future was put in doubt. And while he still saw plenty of playing time, the uncertainty appears to have impacted Santana’s play, leading to a paltry 69 wRC+ and a .023 ISO.
Eric Thames and Ryan Braun were splitting time at first with Braun manning left when not in the infield. But with Thames’ thumb injury, Braun will slide in at first base permanently opening an everyday outfield spot for Santana.
We know what Santana can do when he’s right, so now is a good time to jump in on him as he may well be available on the wire and if not, might not cost too much in a trade. He’s had a massive drop in his line drive rate, converting them almost entirely into ground balls. His exit velocities are right in line with his 2017 season, and his average launch angles haven’t changed it all. What has changed is how he’s getting to that launch angle.
Room for improvement.
Santana is putting more balls in play between 0 and 10 degrees and fewer between 10 and 26 degrees. Where his overall launch angle is eventing out is with his PU%, which are balls hit at a launch angle greater than 39 degrees. These are easy fly balls that have a meager rate of production. In short, he’s not squaring the ball up.
He normally hits far more balls in those highly productive ranges (10 to 19 and 19 to 26 degrees). Chances are he will start putting the ball into play in these ranges more going forward, and when he does, those rate stats will come up, and the counting stats will start adding up.
Getting in on Santana while he’s cheap could prove to be a very savvy move, even if you have to bench him for a bit before he gets right again.
Fantasy Baseball: Mac Williamson (10% Yahoo, 9% ESPN, 30% CBS, 38% Fantrax)
Mac Williamson’s power has never been in question. His ability to hit for contact enough for that power to play has been. Over the winter he worked with Justin Turner’s hitting coach and completely revamped his swing, and the results so far have been spectacular.
Where have we heard this story before? That’s not to say that Williamson is destined to be the next J.D. Martinez, but in 5 games he has 3 HR and 6 RBIs to go with a .316 average. Now, his batting average likely won’t stay in that range going forward, but with his power, even something in the .250 to .260 range would be sufficient. And boy does he have power.
Mac Williamson's 464-foot HR in San Francisco tonight is the farthest by a right-handed hitter to the opposite side of the field (i.e. right of dead center) since #Statcast started tracking in 2015. #SFGiants pic.twitter.com/3VtYk7kGO7
— David Adler (@_dadler) April 24, 2018
His ISO is a ridiculous .474, and his BABIP has room to improve sitting at just .231. Of course, with a sample this small, that could all be noise, but there aren’t any indications that he’s only been absurdly lucky.
Reasons to dream.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Some additional good signs include his swinging strike rate dropping to 12.1%, more than 4% lower than his previous appearances in the majors. His contact percentage is also up to 77.8, 10.2% higher than his career rate. It looks an awful lot like he’s made a sustainable change to his swing.
Exactly where he’ll settle in after a larger sample is up for debate, but it appears he’ll be a useful fantasy asset at the very least.
He is currently on the 7-day concussion DL after slamming into the wall tracking down a fly ball, but he should be acquired in any league he’s available in. So far he’s not widely owned in any platform, so your chances of scooping him up are excellent.
Pick him up in all formats and stick him on your DL until he comes back. Hopefully, the DL stint will be a short one, and he’ll be hitting monster shots again next weekend.
Next: MLB records: Hitters setting strikeout records
Fantasy Baseball Promotion: Ronald Acuna Jr. (87% Yahoo, 91% ESPN, 98% CBS, 98% Fantrax)
This is a reminder that Ronald Acuna got promoted. We did a write up for him earlier in the week which you can find here. He should be owned in all Fantasy Baseball formats except AL-only.