MLB Top Prospects: Top 10 LHP prospects for 2018

After exploring both the team top 10 lists, overall top 150, and system rankings in our MLB Top Prospects series, we finish with a look at positional rankings. Today, we look at the top 10 left-handed pitching prospects for 2018.

Our MLB Top Prospect series at Call to the Pen is spearheaded by Benjamin Chase. Today, he gives us the top ten left-handed pitching prospects for 2018.

We will explore each position with a top 10 list, and then after we get to #1, don’t leave as we will also highlight one player who is “on the rise” and could factor into the positional rankings after the 2018 season if they hold their current trajectory.

Each of these MLB Top Prospect rankings have come through the hundreds of games each summer Ben watches as well as speaking with multiple people throughout the game and gauging their opinions as well on players he has not had a good look at. This is a personal opinion, and a ranking position higher or lower than industry standard does not indicate “liking” or “hating” a certain player more or less – by just showing up on this list, there is a degree of appreciation of the talent a player brings!

We will start each position list with an overall look at the position itself within the game and the strength of the position.

Position overview

Last year’s list

While the right-handed class is deep in all aspects – top-end of the list, high ceiling guys, high floor guys, and depth of quality arms, the left-handed class this year is significantly top-heavy. There’s plenty of depth in high-ceiling players, but not a lot of guys who are high-ceiling that have achieved upper-level success.

While the bar for a lefty is typically lower for success due to batters having a more difficult time picking up the ball from a left-handed pitcher, the flame-out rate of the top arms is significantly high. The recent success of Andrew Miller and the success thus far of Josh Hader will likely put more interest in putting more top lefties into a bullpen role as well, which could make valuing top lefty arms more and more difficult for evaluators.

Let’s take a look at the left-handers….

Next: #9 and #10

10. Joey Wentz, Atlanta Braves

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 10/6/1997 (20)
2018 level: high-A Florida Fire Frogs

Info: The opinions on Wentz right now are very wide-spread. Wentz was originally considered a draft prospect as a power-hitting first baseman, but he showed out in showcases the summer before his senior year, flashing a fastball that ran up to mid-90s consistently with an impressive feel for a curve. However, when his velocity seemed to “back up” in his senior year, people raised questions.

Even if that fastball never comes around to a plus pitch, working with the Braves system that emphasizes manipulation and location on the changeup will help Wentz in his development

Wentz did not have that same velocity in his first pro season, and it showed up why when he was on the mound, as he would sit around 90 and occasionally reach back for 93-94, but rarely the 95-97 some scouts were seeing in short stints. Most likely that was simply due to a lack of usage on his arm and getting loose, but while the velocity hasn’t increased as a pro, his abilities as a pitcher certainly have.

Wentz is able to attack hitters with a well-located low-90s fastball, a plus curve, and a change that he is able to use effectively to both right-handed and left-handed hitters due to his ability to locate well. Wentz does worry some in the scouting community due to his length and lack of significant projection to his body, meaning there’s likely little left to add in velocity outside of simply refining mechanics and building up arm strength.

Even if that fastball never comes around to a plus pitch, working with the Braves system that emphasizes manipulation and location on the changeup will help Wentz in his development, and he could end up turning into a workhorse mid-rotation starter from the left side in the Jon Lester mold. There is some definite upside if he can add a pitch or a tick or two of velocity, however, and he’s definitely in the right system to harness either in a very positive way.

9. Brendan McKay, Tampa Bay Rays

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 12/18/1995 (22)
2018 level: low-A Bowling Green Hot Rods

Info: I had McKay higher on the first base board, and there’s good reason for that on my own personal bias with McKay, but many others don’t feel the same. It’s not that I don’t like McKay by any means, or he wouldn’t be on this list at all.

McKay works with a fastball that sits 91-94, touching 96 with late movement. He adds a cutter that he began throwing more and more his final year of college and a breaking pitch that has some slurvy effect to it.

While McKay does throw three solid pitches and shows above-average conmmand with all three, he does struggle to get a lot of velocity separation, which could see him get hit hard as he climbs the ladder. His breaker also doesn’t really have true shape to it, and having a more sharp, distinct either curve or slider break would allow him to get more swing and miss while his current offering will be more of a weak contact pitch at best.

There is no reason to think McKay couldn’t make these improvements and work his way into a productive mid-rotation starter, but that would be much more assured if he was focusing purely on pitching. The fact that he’s seen his hitting take some big steps forward already as a pro could end up making the decision for him to leave the mound behind, but the talent is enough to leave him here as long as the Rays are having him do both.

Next: #7 and #8

8. Adrian Morejon, San Diego Padres

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/27/1999 (19)
2018 level: high-A Lake Elsinore Storm

Info: On the international radar at a young age after showing impressive ability in the 15U World Cup, Morejon was highly desired when he came to the United States, signing with the Padres for $11 million in July of 2016.

Morejon established himself as an MLB top prospect with his impressive performance in 2017, finishing the year at low-A as an 18 year old, flashing impressive pitchability along with an array of plus pitches.

The repertoire begins with a fastball that works low-90s and can touch 96-97 with some reports of even better velocity in short bursts during fall instructs or spring training. He pairs that with two changeups, one a traditional change, and the other a hard-sinking knuckle-change that both show plus.

His curveball is an average to above-average pitch, but he knows how to sequence it well, especially against right handed hitters, to get strikes. He has advanced feel for sequencing on the mound, though he can get a bit off in his delivery, which can hurt his command.

With his advanced feel and still being a teen, he should be able to be an impact starter with a chance to reach the majors in late 2019 or certainly at some point in 2020.

7. Justus Sheffield, New York Yankees

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 5/13/1996 (21)
2018 level: AA Trenton Thunder

Info: The 31st overall selection out of high school in 2014 by the Indians, Sheffield has always worked against concerns about his height (listed 6′, more like 5’10”) affecting his delivery, and in 2017, he began to show the ability to work over upper minors hitters, but he also struggled with some injury issues.

Sheffield’s stuff on the mound is absolutely electric, led by a fastball that can touch 98-99 in short bursts

Sheffield’s stuff on the mound is absolutely electric, led by a fastball that can touch 98-99 in short bursts. He works the fastball with a slider and change that both flash plus and sit above-average, giving him a strong 3-pitch mix.

His 2017 injury was in his oblique, and there is some concern that the same rotation in his delivery that allows Sheffield some deception also could lead to further issues in his core. Sheffield has finally begun to consistently repeat that delivery, and if he can hit it the same way every time, he could build up those muscles such that they are not an issue for him going forward, but until that point, it will remain a concern.

Sheffield should spend just a short time with Trenton before bumping up to AAA. He’s got the chance to be a very solid mid-rotation starter or even bump up to a #2 type if everything hits the top of its ceiling.

Next: #5 and #6

6. Max Fried, Atlanta Braves

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 1/18/1994 (24)
2018 level: AA Mississippi Braves

Info: Originally selected 7th overall by the Padres out of renowned Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, Fried had just begun to see his star shine in the Padres system before he had Tommy John surgery, which cost him nearly all of the 2014 season and the entire 2015 season, his first with the Braves system.

The Braves got their first look at him on the mound in 2016 with Rome, and by the end of the year, he was the team that dominated for that team to push them to a league title. He jumped to AA in 2017, in part due to his age, but also due to his stuff appearing ready at the end of 2016. Early in the year, Fried reacted oddly after a pitch and seemed to favor one side from that point forward, though he missed few starts for Mississippi.

He worked back with his low-90s fastball, a ridiculous tight-spin curve, and a late-moving change. By the end of the season, he was in the rotation in the major leagues, a place many felt he’d compete to open 2018.

He’s found his way back to the majors already, and while he still doesn’t have great polish on his stuff, he may have better pure stuff than many of the higher-rated pitching prospects in the Braves system. He’ll have to polish quickly to have a chance to stay in the rotation long-term, but even if he moves to the bullpen, he could certainly work as an Andrew Miller-type with his fastball/curve combo.

5. Stephen Gonsalves, Minnesota Twins

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/8/1994 (23)
2018 level: AA Chattanooga Lookouts

Info: With ridiculous prep numbers and showcase excellence, Gonsalves should have been in line to be a first round pick in 2013, but he fell due to some issues with his velocity being inconsistent in his senior year of high school as well as a suspension during the season that has since been confirmed through sources to have been due to marijuana. The Twins gobbled up Gonsalves in the 4th round, and he has rewarded them ever since with some of the best numbers in the minors in their organization, with a career minor league ERA of 2.36 and over a strikeout per inning over 500 minor league innings.

(Gonsalves’) stuff may not be elite, but he sequences and locates so well that he is a near-certain big leaguer at this point, and that adds a lot of value

Given that production, one would assume that Gonsalves would be an MLB top prospect, but there is little consensus on his prospect ranking. His stuff may not be elite, but he sequences and locates so well that he is a near-certain big leaguer at this point, and that adds a lot of value.

Gonsalves works with a fastball that can run to 95 but usually sits in the low-90s with excellent movement that appears much faster due to Gonsalves’ extension to the plate. He has really worked his curve to be an above-average pitch, especially when sequenced well between his fastball and plus change. He also uses a slider that has a slurvy shape, but he can get weak contact on the pitch when he sequences it well.

The Twins had a full AAA rotation to open the season, so once Gonsalves didn’t win the 5th starter job, he opened in AA, but he’s got a great shot to finish the year either in the rotation or in the plans for the 2019 rotation with multiple starters free agents after 2018.

Next: #3 and #4

4. A.J. Puk, Oakland Athletics

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 4/25/1995 (22)
2018 level: Disabled List

Info: Puk fell in his draft season at Florida due to early season wildness and inconsistency throughout the season, but the A’s still felt comfortable taking him with the sixth overall pick.

Puk dominated the minor leagues in 2017, with 184 strikeouts over 125 innings across two levels

Puk dominated the minor leagues in 2017, with 184 strikeouts over 125 innings across two levels. While he rarely was squared up (3 home runs allowed as a pro in over 150 pro innings), Puk still had plenty of issues with consistently finding the strike zone, though his stuff was so good that he was able to get away with it.

At 6’7″, Puke gets excellent plane on his mid-90s fastball and a wicked angle on his hard-breaking slider that makes both near-impossible to get the bat head on. Puk has worked to calm his delivery, and there have been progressive steps forward for him, though still work to do.

In line to likely compete for a rotation spot in 2018, Puk injured his elbow before even getting a chance to compete this spring and will miss all of 2018 and likely the start of 2019 with Tommy John surgery. That does put his future a bit in question, though he still should have a very high upside in the bullpen if his velocity returns post-surgery.

3. Kolby Allard, Atlanta Braves

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 8/13/1997 (20)
2018 level: AAA Gwinnett Stripers

Info: Considered a legit top 5 option in the 2015 draft, back concerns saw Kolby Allard fall to the Braves where their strong California scouting contingent had been on Allard all spring to know the extent of his back issues. He’s done nothing but show out ever since (2.99 ERA in 265 minor league innings), but not exactly in the way many had envisioned.

A guy who could flash a mid-90s fastball when he was drafted, many saw Allard adding velocity and refining his offspeed offerings to become a frontline guy. The Braves challenged Allard with his assignment in 2017 to AA as a teenager, but he showed well the type of arm he could become.

Allard works low-90s with his fastball, but he’s worked with teammate Mike Soroka to learn to manipulate his fastball in multiple ways as he’s really worked to plus command of all variations on his fastball. He uses a curve that has big break and can get off location a big when he spins it a bit too much, but it’s a near-impossible pitch for a hitter to square. Add in a change that he’s turned into a definite plus pitch, and you can see why Allard was considered one of the elite arms in AA in 2017.

He pretty easily projects as a #3-4 starter, but with his maturity in his approach and his ability to manipulate his offerings with an easy, repeatable delivery, Allard could work his way to the front of a rotation with consistently difficult stuff to hit, akin to someone like Al Leiter on the mound.

Next: #1 and #2

2. Luiz Gohara, Atlanta Braves

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 7/31/1996 (21)
2018 level: Disabled List

Info: Until this past summer, Gohara had been the highest bonus ever given to a player from Brazil, but the Mariners seemed to grow tired of his size and attempting to get him “in shape”, spinning him off to the Braves after arguably his best season as a pro to that point in the 2016-2017 offseason.

Gohara did slim down significantly before the 2016 season, and it’s allowed him to more consistently repeat his delivery, but akin to pitchers like CC Sabathia, Gohara is still able to be quite athletic off the mound in spite of his size. He’s definitely not lost any stuff due to the weight lost either.

The Braves saw Gohara climb four levels in 2017 from high-A all the way to the majors, reaching the upper 90s consistently with his fastball with wicked late movement on the pitch. He pairs the fastball with an elite mid-80s slider that has received some 80 grades from scouts and is consistently considered a plus-plus pitch. His change is a solid pitch, but used so seldom that many have not had a chance to get a good read on it.

Gohara opened the 2018 season on the disabled list, but he’s shown no ill effects so far in his rehab, and he should be up in the major leagues in May, likely to remain in the Braves rotation through the rest of the year with a chance to develop as a frontline starter.

1. MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres

Birthday (age on opening day 2018): 2/24/1999 (19)
2018 level: low-A Fort Wayne TinCaps

Info: It’s quite rare that a guy is the top at his position after being drafted the previous summer as a high schooler, but here we are. The praise is not unfounded either, as there were plenty who thought Gore was the best available in the entire 2017 draft and he’s seen himself within MLB top prospects as high as the top 30.

there were plenty who thought Gore was the best available in the entire 2017 draft

The high leg kick certainly draws plenty of attention, but unlike many who employ the high kick, Gore has great ability to repeat his delivery, which allows him to command and control his pitches far better than most can in their pro debut.

Gore works with a fastball that can run up to 97 but typically works in the 92-94 range with excellent late life and extension on the pitch. He matches that with a change that seems to fall off the table as it gets to the plate. Mixing in a curve that some have graded as a double plus pitch and a slider with plus potential gives him four potential plus pitches – certain frontline material!

Gore will work in low-A to open 2018, but it would not surprise if he was able to jump up to AA by the end of the season, though the Padres want to manage his innings, so they could have him do some “DL” stints to manage those innings, which could send Padres fans into a fit, but look to official injury reports before worrying too much. Gore has a chance to be incredibly elite!

Next: On the rise