Justin Upton, OF – Angels (.229/.293/.376, 4 HR)
Justin Upton just isn’t hitting yet. Part of that is the nearly 70 point drop in BABIP, but he was due from some regression there anyway. Is he declining rapidly or just in a temporary funk? The answer is a bit complicated.
While he’s been a below average hitter for results, his expected stats are more encouraging. Baseball Savant has his xSLG at .469 and his xwOBA at .345. While both are lower than his 2017 figures, both are also massive improvements over his 2018 numbers.
He’s barreling balls at a similar rate to last season, and he has a similar rate of pulled, center and opposite field balls. The one big difference I can see is that his launch angle is down 3.4 degrees.
Spread it around.
One notable difference is that he’s pulling the ball at a 43.2% rate, the highest of his career. The entire difference from his 2017 rates is in his pull and opposite field numbers. His center percentage is nearly identical. If he can start going with pitches the other way again, that might get him going and move his stats a little closer to the near career year he had in 2017.
Another thing to keep an eye on is that pitchers are throwing to him down and away quite a bit. This could be expanding the zone allowing for called strikes to the inside. He’s swinging inside a lot more than chasing away, though, so it could be a matter of making an adjustment to how he’s being attacked.
It’s almost certain that he will fall off from last year, but Justin Upton can still put up a productive season, and that could go a long way toward keeping the Angels in the playoff hunt.