Phillies: Manager’s lineup strategy

As a Phillies fan, you search for answers after the skipper has posted his batting order for the game, you struggle to understand his approach, but you only have a small percentage of the information he does.

One through eight:

Because a new “sheriff” is in the Philadelphia Phillies‘ dugout, the faithful experience both encouragement and disappointment proportionately to their confidence level in him and the club. However, when the offensive situation changes, manager Gabe Kapler must alter his plan accordingly due to losing, a slump or an injury.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Once the season starts for me, there isn’t a change in my focus, just a change in my tactics and strategies.” – Bode Miller

With April in the books, Kapler has, for the most part, revealed his method regarding the lineup. Granted, things inside the skipper’s office are in greater detail, while this view from a distance only outlines his decision-making. Ergo, one piece of info could change things.

Keep in mind; the juggling involves players positioned with the best odds to succeed for them and the team. But as this article shows, Kapler has more moving parts than even the hard-core fan considers.

The easiest concept is the opposite-side bat against the starter. For instance, J.P. Crawford would face a right-hander, and Aaron Altherr would play right field with a southpaw on the mound. But it’s just the beginning.

Next, the opposing starter influences the manager’s approach. Which hitter has fared better against the hurler? But if the batter hasn’t faced him to any great degree, the moundsman’s strength can’t be the regular’s weakness.

Phillies switch-hitters:

• Cesar Hernandez: 32 of 128 PA against a left-handed pitcher for 25.0 percent.
• Carlos Santana: 35 of 128 PA against a left-handed pitcher for 27.3 percent.
• Total: 67 of 256 PA against a left-handed pitcher for 26.2 percent.
• All statistics in this article are through May 3.

Having a straight platoon doesn’t work for the right-side hitter because he’d only start one out of every four games. Translation: Nick Williams would start three contests, and Altherr would get only one. In other words, Altherr will face a right-hander frequently.

Cemented-in four:

Regarding analytics, the writers and the faithful will always find some flaw. And the reason is the numerical totality has an accuracy rate of 70 percent. Yeah, they don’t brag about that, do they?

Despite the data, Hernandez, Santana, Odubel Herrera and Rhys Hoskins are atop the batting order. However, Kapler will move a struggling player to a different part of the four like Hoskins or to the five-hole for prolonged difficulties. But when the player hits again, the front four will reappear.

Eventually, games will pile up and days off will be a necessity. For now, though, Scott Kingery will give Hernandez a rest, Williams and Altherr will occasionally fill-in for Herrera and Hoskins, who will also play first now and then.

Significantly, leadoff man Hernandez is second to Hoskins in OBP at .406, and the second sacker is one of the National League’s best in pitches per at-bat. He works counts and allows the hitters behind him to see the stuff a starter has on any given day. As for swiping bases, he’s taking more chances and is somewhat more comfortable.

When the weather heats up, Santana will as well. Currently, he has a .295 OBP, but you can expect a gradual increase to .360 or so with the home runs we’ve been anticipating. Get your homer call ready, broadcasters!

Persisting with a .333 average and a .392 OBP, Herrera has claimed the three slot between Santana and Hoskins. And he replaced the bat flips with circus catches. Of course, if he makes a fielding or base running mistake, every single one will be fodder for his detractors.

After he had received his Phillies’ call-up, Hoskins launched bombs and displayed plate discipline with extraordinary patience. And then fatigue slowed him down during his first September of pro ball. His tank was almost empty. And although he’s hitting .296 with a .444 OBP, he’s 2 for 20 in his last five games with three walks.