Toronto Blue Jays: Promotions for Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette?
The Toronto Blue Jays may have the pair of hitters in all of the minors with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrer Jr. Should they be considering promoting either straight from the AA New Hampshire Fischer Cats?
The Toronto Blue Jays are off to a solid start to the 2018 season. They have gone 18-15 in their first 33 games. That puts them 5.5 games out of the division lead with two juggernaut teams ahead of them. They also have to contend with whichever team doesn’t take the West. The Los Angeles Angels or the defending champion Houston Astros will be in the mix for a Wild Card spot.
So you would think it makes sense for the team to bide its time and not rush prospects this season. Either the Boston Red Sox or the New York Yankees will likely take the first Wild Card slot. And after the Angels and Astros, the Seattle Mariners look like they will be right in the mix as well. We also shouldn’t sleep on the Minnesota Twins who could get back into the conversation by the time the stretch run begins.
Packing it in would also mean a higher first round draft pick next June, and buy them as much service time as possible with their future stars. They could even wait until the late April or May of 2019 to steal yet another year of major league control before bringing up one of their young studs. Playing it safe has its appeal. But I’m not here to advocate for playing it safe. I’m here to argue that the Blue Jays should be aggressive and maximize their chances of winning right now. And with that, we’ll get started with the argument that the Blue Jays should promote Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette soon.
The hole at shortstop.
The jump from AA to the majors is a big one, no doubt, but it has become one that is less uncommon. Even within the division, the rival Red Sox did it (essentially) with Rafael Devers just last season. And it just so happens that the Blue Jays have some holes to fill at positions that their top hitting prospects can fill.
Aledmys Diaz has a 76 wRC+ in the early season. That is right in line with the 78 he managed in 79 games last year in St. Louis. He also had a 77 in 49 games at AAA last season. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of reason to assume he will hit much better than that going forward. He’s a placeholder for Bichette.
Devon Travis isn’t producing at second base either, but Lourdes Gurriel is likely the future there and is already getting his feet wet. With Diaz already being 27 years old, he’s in the middle of his prime years as a hitter. There is little reason to expect he isn’t what he currently appears to be. He may have a role as a utility fielder or a defensive replacement late in games, but the future is named Bo, and Bo knows hitting.
Bo Bichette can mash.
After being drafted in the second round of the 2016 draft, Bo Bichette spent 22 games annihilating rookie level pitching to the tune of a 238 wRC+. That’s 138% better than league average. He followed that with with 70 games of a 201 wRC+ to start the 2017 season in A-ball. And then 40 games with a 145 wRC+ at high-A. His full season included 14 home runs and 22 steals which earned him a promotion to AA to start the 2018 campaign.
He picked up right where he left off and has posted a 139 wRC+ over his first 23 games with 8 steals. While he hasn’t gone yard yet, he has 6 doubles and 4 triples fueling a .449 SLG. Perhaps more impressive, his walk percentage is a career high at 10.1% despite facing the most advanced pitching he’s ever seen. His 20.2% strikeout rate is also a career high, but is nowhere near worth being concerned about.
He makes good contact, can hit for plenty of power and will be a threat on the bases while providing above average defense at shortstop. That’s an impact player and is likely already better than what they are getting from Aledmys Diaz.
Vlad Jr. can DH or play third.
Yangervis Solarte is actually having a very solid season at age 30. His 143 wRC+ is 7th best in MLB so far, right behind Kris Bryant, Jose Ramirez and Nolan Arenado. His previous high is a 109 with the San Diego Padres in 2015. That means some regression may be imminent, but his floor appears to be around league average.
This allows the Blue Jays to hedge their bets by promoting Vladimir Guerrero Jr. since Kendrys Morales has been awful. His 44 wRC+ comes despite a massive jump in hard hit percentage. He’s up from 43.3% in 2017 to 60.8% this season. That discrepancy is likely related to his launch angle, which is just 8.5 degrees. It’s a low mark since Statcast started tracking it in 2015. His 52.8% ground ball rate is also a career high, so that launch angle could well be a career low.
In short, he’s hitting the ball on the ground more, which may account for the jump in average exit velocity despite the drop in results. And at age 34, it’s entirely possible that he won’t bounce back to the comfortably above average bat he was with the Kansas City Royals or the Angels before that. Bringing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. up to push Morales to the bench allows the team to give Morales favorable match ups to get him going while also giving them a safety net for a regression from Aledmys Diaz.
There may not be a better hitter in the minors right now.
Having a Hall of Famer for a father sets the bar pretty high. The expectations for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were insane when he was signed as an IFA in July of 2015. Somehow, he has managed to exceed them.
In 62 games at rookie level in 2016 he posted a 122 wRC+ with 8 HR. He followed that with a 151 in 77 games at A-ball and a 179 in high-A to finish the 2017. His stops at two levels produced 15 HR in 119 games. He hasn’t let up at all since being promoted to AA. His 199 wRC+ so far includes 3 HR, 9 2B and 1 3B. And he did this on Thursday:
It appears that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was made to hit. Baseball America has his hit tool at an absurd 80 out of 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His power is rated as a 70. That’s Aaron Judge level power with a hit tool that is as good as it gets. He is an impact bat at worst, and could be an MVP caliber hitter once he settles in at the major league level.
Why wait?
While the major league club got off to a good enough start that they could unexpectedly make the playoffs if they play things right, there are certainly arguments for exercising some patience. The point at which the team gains another year of control over their prospects may have passed, but the Super Two deadline won’t be until early June. Having an additional year of control is one thing, but keeping players out of arbitration as long as possible also has some value.
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Beyond that, there is the question of how each hitter will react to seeing AA pitchers for a second time. Those pitchers will make adjustments in ways Bichette and Guerrero likely haven’t seen before. Waiting to see how that plays out gives the organization a chance to see how much more seasoning these young players may still need. The difference between AA and AAA isn’t as big as you might expect, so a significant amount of at bats in Buffalo may not be necessary before a call up. Waiting to see how they react to the adjustment that is likely coming from opposing pitchers might be, however.
Do they pull the trigger?
Chances are the team will choose to wait. Seeing how each prospect reacts to adjustments from more advanced pitchers and saving themselves a year of arbitration awards are not insignificant factors. Eleven arbitration eligible players made more than $10M this winter with Josh Donaldson topping the list at $23M. That extra year of arbitration can be costly.
And the difference between 22 and 27 weeks of exposure to major league pitching is likely negligible. While Blue Jays fans may be salivating at the thought of seeing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette as anchors in their lineup, the best move may be to wait another five weeks or so. Even as a fan of a different team, I can’t wait to see these two young mashers do their thing at the major league level, so I empathize. But the money saved in their arbitration years may be the difference between competing and not in the A.L. East given the young talent in New York and Boston.
Next: Travis sees time come to end
The future for the Toronto Blue Jays is incredibly bright. There likely isn’t a better combination of hitters within the same organization in the minors right now. Having them compete with home grown American League duos like Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies, or even Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert is going to be incredibly fun to watch. And while it’s not here just yet, we’re not far off.