Philadelphia Phillies: Auditing ‘the under .200 club’

Doing inventory, conducting an in-depth audit of the Philadelphia Phillies under .200 club members.

Philadelphia Phillies fans had begun to notice, even before April’s end, the team’s winning record and a lot of their players’ batting averages didn’t quite dovetail. Overall, the opening month had been a success, but something wasn’t right yet. A glance at the team BAs after the last game of the month verified a lot of suspicions.

In an age of new statistics, one old one holds up as a very decent indicator of a position player struggling – a batting average below the proverbial Mendoza line. Batting averages below .200 are like traffic arrows pointing toward the bench. The problem with the Phillies stat sheet before play on May Day was that there were five players below .200 who were either starters or platooned starters.

Aaron Altherr (.192), J.P. Crawford (.188), Nick Williams (.185), Andrew Knapp (.170) and Carlos Santana (.153) are all players Phillies fans expect to see every night or at least every third night, and none was doing much besides Altherr. Built on the base of a couple of big home runs with men on base, his RBI total was 17 after the April 30 game.

Bad Signs All Over

That 8-4 loss ending the month wasn’t a good sign either. The opponent had been the dreadful Miami Marlins, a team that had cut ties with almost everyone or thing of value in their ballpark except the maligned Red Grooms construction in left-centerfield. Suddenly, the Phillies teetered on the edge between contender and also-ran. To close observers, their 16-12 record looked a lot like a driverless car on a steep hill – one the driver had left the parking brake off.

Minus the five players above, what is the Phillies lineup?  It would seemingly comprise the pitcher and three other players who had booked very good to excellent months. They’d be Odubel Herrera, Rhys Hoskins, and Cesar Hernandez. If Herrera played, and he was the truly excellent one among those three so far, either Altherr or Williams likely wouldn’t start. Depending on the day, Maikel Franco could be playing.

He was puttering along reasonably, and of course, a team needs a third baseman. Super-utility-rookie Scott Kingery was struggling at month’s end, barely keeping his nose above the watery .200 mark; however, the team seemed committed to finding him a spot somewhere frequently. It was all pretty complicated, but the bottom line was three people can’t carry any team.

A five-game audit of the Under .200 Club commenced immediately, with a special focus on other ways they could contribute besides reaching base on a hit. Stolen bases, walks and RBI – especially RBI – are all also important data points.

Before May 1 the five players under .200 had only four stolen bases as a group. Only Santana (20 BB) and Altherr (12 BB) were in double digits for walks and RBI. To Altherr’s 17 RBI, Santana had added 11.

Limping into May

The first three games in May weren’t encouraging. The struggling group together added only three walks and three RBI. Crawford was on the DL, and another bad sign emerged.

Hoskins saw his BA plunge from .303 to .284, and the team went 1-2 in two more games against the Fish and their series opener against the Washington Nationals, a 7-3 loss. Going into the weekend play of May 5 and 6 against the Nats, concerns abounded, not the least of which was the scheduled starter for Sunday, Max Scherzer (6-1, 1.79 ERA).

Saturday’s result against Tanner Roark and two relievers was a 3-1 win. Hoskins hit a two-run homer in the first, and the Phillies pitching was very good, allowing only two hits. Among our offensive strugglers, all but Crawford played, and there were some marginally hopeful signs. Santana was 1 for 4 and scored a run when Franco drove him in with a single in the sixth. Williams, Altherr, and Knapp all walked, and Knapp was 1 for 3, but none of them scored.

Following the game, Philly.com Phillies beat writer Scott Lauber understandably emphasized Hoskins’ home run, noting essential data about the slugger’s slump, and tossing around stats about his still high ceiling. (Since 1900 he is the only player with 45 walks and 20 home runs in his first 250 at-bats.)

Lauber’s piece included not a word about the Under .200 Club, not even about Santana collecting his first triple before he scored an insurance run. With a win Sunday, the Phillies could complete a .500 road trip against the best and worst teams in the division on paper.

Facing Scherzer

The National Weather Service website called for a “likely” shower after 2 p.m. in Washington. The pitching match-up involved the last two NL Cy Young winners, Scherzer and Jake Arrieta.

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The rain held off, the starters were brilliant, and the starters were ultimately irrelevant. Needing six outs with a 4-1 run lead, the Phillies bullpen did a slow motion collapse, and the Nats took the game, 5-4, and the series.

Scherzer set an MLB record with 15 strikeouts in 6.1 innings, but Arrieta may have been better since he was more efficient. His pinch hitter, Williams, immediately took him off the hook for a 1-0 loss, but not before he had forced Washington to pull Scherzer for a left-handed reliever.

Williams’ floating single to center tied the game, but that was it for actually good signs from the Under .200 Club. The Phillies had built a 4-1 lead largely because of Herrera, Hoskins, and Franco. The third baseman had quietly slipped into the “hot” category.

In five games, the struggling young players did this: They added four RBI, six walks and no stolen bases to their collective totals. Altherr raised his BA from .192 to .205, Williams raised his from .185 to .203, Knapp raised his from .170 to .180, and Santana moved from .153 to .169. Crawford (.188) remained on the DL.

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This all falls into the category of very slight improvement, and certainly not enough to compete well in the NL East. The Phillies division has established before May 15 it has four “real” teams, instead of one, the team that had just beaten them.