After struggling to find consistency in previous seasons, has Red Sox right-handed reliever Joe Kelly finally found his place?
Boston Red Sox reliever Joe Kelly had a very Joe Kelly-esque meltdown in his first appearance of the season. He surrendered four earned runs while walking three and retiring just one batter. Despite having elite velocity, he has always struggled to pull it all together and pitch consistently.
And his first game of the year suggested we would be in for more of the same this season. But since that day, Joe Jelly has not allowed a single run in 14 IP over 13 games. He has been absolutely spectacular. But is it a sign of a real change or is it just another great run before the next meltdown?
To try and answer that question, we have to go back in time. Two seasons ought to do it, as that gives us his worst and best seasons to date. He finished the 2016 campaign with a 5.18 ERA and a 12.8% walk rate. His strikeout rate was 25.5% but it wasn’t enough to counterbalance the walks or the 17.9% HR/FB. His FIP was a slightly better 4.32 and his xFIP was actually quite solid at 3.86. The results just weren’t there, though.
Last season, however, the results did come. His ERA dropped to 2.79 with a 3.49 FIP and a 4.07 xFIP behind it. His strikeout rate dropped a little but so did the walk rate and his HR/FB was cut back by more than 10%. Some of that might be luck, as the difference between his ERA and his FIP and xFIP would indicate, but there were some signs of genuine growth.