Mike Trout versus Mookie Betts: 2018 MVP Race
2016 was Rocky taking on Apollo. The new kid came up just short of stealing the title. 2018 is the rematch, and maybe, just maybe, Mike Trout versus Mookie Betts can work out as well for the underdog as it did for The Italian Stallion.
Before we get started, let’s just acknowledge that it’s early to be picking front-runners for the MVP. It’s also not going to be a two-man race. That said, there is a lot of buzz about the Red Sox right fielder stepping up to the level of the face of the Angels, Mike Trout, and that’s worth digging into. We’re also just talking about 2018 here, not their careers.
And we’re not prognosticating about where their careers will end up. The Boston bowling champ has a long way to go before we can even have that conversation. But right here? Right now? Mike Trout versus Mookie Betts in 2018. Who have you got?
(Stats current as of May 7, 2018)
The contender: Mookie Betts.
Markus Lynn Betts is off to his best start ever. The five-tool star has been crushing the ball all season and has already entered the Red Sox history books. He has a 224 wRC+, 13 HR, 26 RBI, 36 R, and 3 SB. That’s good for 2.5 fWAR, nearly half of the 5.4 fWAR he totaled in the 2018 season. It’s also 30% of the way to his near MVP 2016 figure with just 21% of the season in the books. He’s been a monster at the plate, a wizard in the field, and to the eye, his baserunning has been a plus so far.
He ranks 2nd in fWAR, 1st in wRC+, home runs, and runs scored. He’s 12th in RBIs with the leagues 3rd best OBP and top SLG. He leads Mike Trout in SLG by a whopping 98 points. What’s more is that what Mookie Betts is doing might just be sustainable.
Let’s dig into the numbers.
His BABIP is just .302. So there aren’t any overt warning signs that he’s about to come crashing back down to Earth. This is supported by his league-leading 17.1 Brls/PA (a measure of high-quality contact with at least a .500 BA and a 1.500 SLG). He’s also sitting on the 22nd highest average exit velocity at 93.2 MPH. And he has the 5th most balls hit at 95 or higher. He’s hitting the ball almost 5 MPH harder than he did last year, and 3.5 MPH harder than he did in his runner-up for the MVP year.
Additionally, he’s brought his average launch angle up 7.3 degrees, which was one of the things I noted he could do to improve over the winter. The increase in launch angle and the harder contact make for a compelling case that this is a sustainable change even if he is likely to regress a little.
He’s also more aggressive with pitches he can do damage against. On the advice of new manager Alex Cora, he’s no longer letting pitches go by if he feels like he can hit them hard. Especially pitches he can pull. Mookie’s pull percentage is up to 50.5% while his up the middle and opposite field rates have dropped. Over his career, he has posted wRC+’s of 250, 255, 247 and 203 when pulling the ball. He’s at 436 this season.
The champ: Mike Trout.
As we alluded to earlier, this is no contest when we compare careers. Mike Trout is off to one of the greatest starts to a career that the game has ever seen. He’s on track to be in the discussion for best player ever. So we’ve boiled this down to 2018 to make it more interesting. And even then it’s still possible to pick the Angels’ center fielder in a head to head match up.
His 212 wRC+ is 2nd in the majors. He’s also the runner-up in HR and SLG while leading the majors in OBP and fWAR. He’s on pace for 16.7 fWAR. There’s a good chance that pace will ease up a bit considering 10.1 is his career best and that no one else has crossed the 10.0 threshold in the last decade.
Let’s look under the hood.
Unlike Mookie Betts, Mike Trout has a higher than league average BABIP. Also unlike Betts, for his career, he has a higher than league average BABIP. His .353 is two points shy of his .355 career mark, so no real reason to expect significant regression there.
Additional good signs include his hard hit percentage being up 9.6% and his average exit velocity being up 3.9 MPH while his average launch angle remains steady with 2017’s number at 19.9 degrees.
If there is anywhere we might expect some regression; it’s with the glove. UZR is inherently unstable in small samples, so the 6 UZR/150 rate that Trout is sitting at is more than likely going to regress toward his three year average of 0.4. That’s a roughly a neutral defender. And that would cut his fWAR total down below Mookie Betts’ if everything else held.
Tale of the tape so far.
Mookie Betts leads Mike Trout in HR, R, RBI, AVG, SLG, and wRC+. Trout leads in SB, OBP and fWAR. And it’s worth noting that he has far better BB% and K% rates. Though, to this point in the very young season, Mookie Betts is the sixth hardest hitter to get a swing and miss out of. Mike Trout is 12th.
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If the season ended today, Betts would likely edge out the 2016 MVP for that honor. But only one of the two has a history of playing this well all the time, and it’s not Mookie. Just last season Boston’s most popular player finished the season with a 108 wRC+. He’s only crossed the 30 HR mark once so far. Trout, on the other hand, has never had a wRC+ lower than 167 in a full season. He has eclipsed 30 HR four times while hitting 29 and 27 in the two he did not.
While Mookie may be a better defender in right field than Trout is in center going forward, the positional adjustment between the two positions will likely make up for that difference. And let’s face it, playing an average center field is likely as hard as playing a plus right field in a vacuum. Fenway’s right field may be the toughest in the majors, but 10 runs for just stepping onto the field in CF instead of RF is a massive advantage.
Time to pick a side.
If I were asked if I would pick Mookie Betts to finish higher than Mike Trout in the MVP voting before the season, I’d have said no way. But with the benefit of hindsight allows me to see the hot starts, I’ll go ahead and back the front-runner. After all, how many chances will I ever have to get out in front of a head to head like this in the future? The answer may be none, so I’m not wasting the opportunity.
Next: MLB Power Rankings: Week 5
Who do you have winning the AL MVP this year? Trout? Betts? Someone else (I’m sure someone is twitching at their keyboard to type Aaron Judge or Didi Gregorius right now)?