ANAHEIM, CA - MARCH 25: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Designated hitter Albert Pujols (5) looks on during a preseason MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on March 25, 2018 at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CA – MARCH 25: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Designated hitter Albert Pujols (5) looks on during a preseason MLB game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim on March 25, 2018, at Angel Stadium of Anaheim in Anaheim, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
Albert Pujols has seen his career decline significantly over the last couple years, much like a few other current Hall of Fame players.
With Albert Pujols and the Hall of Fame in mind, it was interesting to see a poll by Joe Posnanski on Twitter on Monday. Posnanski asked a question that appeared to compare two different players—one with a short career of very high quality and another with a longer career at high quality, but not to the heights of the first player.
He asked which of these players (really, sets of numbers) would you be more likely to vote into the Hall of Fame. Here’s the tweet:
Two players ... Player A: .328/.420/.617, 2,073 hits, 445 homers, 1,291 runs, 1,329 RBIs, 170 OPS+ Player B: .304/.385/.560, 3,002 hits, 620 homers, 1,739 runs, 1,938 RBIs,, 151 OPS+
Which would you be MORE LIKELY to vote into the Hall of Fame?
Along with the traditional batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, hits, runs, home runs, and RBI, Posnanski used OPS+, which is a metric that normalizes a player’s OPS to an easy-to-understand scale. League average is 100. A 130 OPS+ means that player is 30 percent better than league average on offense. I’ve repeated the statistics here and added WAR (Baseball-Reference).
Player A “only” had 2073 hits and 445 HR, while player B topped the magical 3000 hits mark and belted more than 600 home runs. Just looking at the numbers, it’s likely that player B had more playing time, which allowed him to accumulate all of those hits, home runs, runs scored, and RBI.
Player A had a better batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS+, and had 82 percent as much value, based on WAR.
For reference, players in the range of 172 OPS+ for their careers are Mickey Mantle (172), Shoeless Joe Jackson (170) and Ty Cobb (168). Rogers Hornsby is a little higher, at 175. Mike Trout is currently in the same ballpark as Mantle, at 173. Player A had an OPS+ that put him on par with these hitters (defense is not included in OSP+).
A 151 OPS+ is still a very good player, but not at that level of the guys mentioned above. Players in this range include Miguel Cabrera (151), Honus Wagner (151), Jeff Bagwell (149), and Edgar Martinez (147). This is where player B would fit on the all-time scale as a hitter.
Those are Hall of Fame caliber players. Wagner and Bagwell are already in the Hall of Fame. Edgar will hopefully get in next year, and Cabrera is still active but looking very Hall of Fame-like also.
Who is more Hall of Fame worthy?
So, back to the question: who would you be more likely to vote into the Hall of Fame? Player A is a Mickey Mantle caliber hitter with 2000 hits and 445 homers. Player B is a Miguel Cabrera caliber hitter with 3000 hits and 620 homers.
As you might expect, more people chose Player B, by a margin of 65 percent to 22 percent with 13 percent voting “too close to call.” These counting numbers make a difference to most people.
You may have guessed that both of these players, player A and player B, are Albert Pujols. Player A is the Albert Pujols that played for the St. Louis Cardinals — that Albert Pujols is a very worthy Hall of Fame player.
His 86.6 WAR as a Cardinal would rank him 49th in the history of baseball, right between George Brett and Tim Keefe (a pitcher from the 1880s). It’s a couple more WAR than Chipper Jones and a few more than Ken Griffey, Jr.
Player B is the entire career of Albert Pujols. That is also a Hall of Fame player but, since he joined the Angels, Albert Pujols has added just 12.9 WAR in six-plus seasons. He hasn’t been anywhere close to the player he was with the Cardinals, but he’s been able to add more hits, runs, homers, and RBI to his career totals.
With Albert Pujols, you have the St. Louis Cardinals version which was already a Hall of Fame-worthy player after 11 seasons. Then you add in what he’s done so far with the Angels, which is not as impressive.
He was above average in three of his first four seasons in Los Angeles but has struggled in the last two-plus years. Last year was particularly bad when he was worth -1.8 WAR. This is what he’s done statistically with the Angels:
.262/.317/.458, 448 R, 175 HR, 609 RBI, 115 OPS+.
For reference, players close to a 115 OPS+ last season were Mike Moustakas (116), Jay Bruce (115), and Eugenio Suarez (115). That’s what Pujols has provided to the Angels in the first six-plus years of his 10-year contract. At his age and with his recent history, it’s only going to get worse from here.
Albert Pujols, the Los Angeles Angels version, has not been a Hall of Fame caliber player. This doesn’t take away from Pujols being a first ballot Hall of Famer. He definitely is. But he is a first ballot guy primarily because of what he did in St. Louis.
His three above-average years with the Angels can be added to the resume, but if he completes his contract, those years are likely to come with seven below average seasons, some of which will be below replacement-level seasons.
Of course, Albert Pujols isn’t the only Hall of Fame player in baseball history to have a low-value decline phase. He’s probably not even the most relevant example. He’s just the latest example. Players like Sandy Koufax, who retired as the undisputed best pitcher in baseball, is an exception.
An arm injury pushed him away from the game. Barry Bonds is another exception. He was fourth in baseball with a 169 OPS+ in his final season and had more life left in his bat but didn’t get a chance to continue his career.
Most players, even Hall of Famers like Albert Pujols, have careers that end in a slow fade rather than the light going out all at once. Let’s take a look at some recent examples.
Junior spent 11 years at the start of his career with the Seattle Mariners and established himself as one of the best players of the 1990s. Then he went to Cincinnati where injuries cut into his playing time, limited his fielding ability, and his hitting declined.
His Hall of Fame excellence is almost entirely due to what he accomplished through the age of 30, which included his first year 11 years with the Mariners and one year with the Reds.
Consider the numbers. This shows an average season from Griffey through the age of 30 and an average season from age 31 on (WAR is from Baseball-Reference):
Griffey was a perennial All-Star with the Mariners and in his first season with the Reds. He averaged 97 runs, 36 homers, 106 RBI and 6.4 WAR per season. He was worth 76.2 WAR during this time, which was 90 percent of his career total of 83.8 WAR.
This is the Griffey his fans like to remember. It’s easy to forget that just three of his final 10 seasons were league average or better and he was particularly awful in his last three seasons, hitting .229/.332/.397 in 293 games (0.2 WAR total).
Historically speaking, through their age 30 seasons, Griffey had almost the same WAR total as Willie Mays (76.2 To 77.0 WAR). From the age of 31 on, Griffey added 7.6 WAR and Mays added another 79.4 WAR. That’s why Mays is one of the handful of greatest players ever. Griffey was at that level for more than a decade, but the long, slow fade dropped him down a tier or two.
Craig Biggio came to the big leagues as a catcher, where he won a Silver Slugger and was an all-star, then moved to second base, where he continued to win awards. In the 12 years from his rookie year in 1988 through his age 33 season in 1999, Biggio was a seven-time all-star who hit .292/.380/.437 and averaged 4.7 WAR per season and 56.2 WAR total.
He had 1868 career hits and had an OPS+ that made him 24 percent better than league average as a hitter. He also picked up MVP votes in five seasons, won four Gold Gloves, and five Silver Sluggers.
These first 12 seasons provided the bulk of Biggio’s career value. Over his final eight seasons, he hit .266/.338/.428, which made him five percent below average on offense. He also stopped winning Gold Glove awards and spent a couple of years in the outfield. He was worth a total of 9.3 WAR, with three above-average seasons out of the eight he played.
Overall, 86 percent of Biggio’s career value came before the age of 34, at which point he had fewer than 2000 career hits. He added another 1192 career hits during his decline phase, which permitted him to top 3000 hits for his career.
Unless you’re Pete Rose and you’ve been caught gambling on baseball, getting 3000 hits gains you entry into the Hall of Fame. Biggio got there, but it wasn’t pretty at the end. He hit .249/.296/.402 over his final two seasons (88 OPS+, -1.7 WAR).
For the first 14 years of his career, Eddie Murray lived up to the nickname “Steady Eddie.” He averaged 152 games per season, with 86 runs, 27 homers, 98 RBI, and a .294/.372/.494 batting line.
His 140 OPS+ showed how much better than league average he was with the bat and he was rewarded for his performance with seven all-star nods and the AL Rookie of the Year Award. He also earned MVP votes in nine seasons and won three Gold Glove Awards.
At this point, through the age of 34, Murray had 2352 career hits, 379 career home runs, and had earned 63.5 WAR. He’d played the first 12 years with the Baltimore Orioles, the team he is most associated with, along with two seasons with the Dodgers. He was about to begin the phase of his career during which he moved around a bit, changing teams five times in his last six years.
After earning 63.5 WAR in his first 12 seasons, Murray earned 5.2 WAR over his final nine seasons. He was an all-star just one time and hit .270/.328/.434, giving him an OPS+ of 103. During these nine seasons, Murray was an average league player once, when he was worth 2.4 WAR in 1995.
Despite regularly being below average, Murray was given enough playing time to continue to rack up hits, home runs, runs scored, and RBI. He was very close to 3000 hits and approaching 500 home runs through the age of 38 when he had his last good year at the age of 39 and joined the 3000 hits club.
He added to his hit total and moved beyond the 500 home run barrier over his final two season, despite hitting a woeful .251/.316/.394 (80 OPS+, -1.3 WAR).
Pete Rose
Pete Rose isn’t in the Hall of Fame, but it’s not because he didn’t earn it on the field. His gambling on baseball eliminated him from consideration. If not for those transgressions, he would have made the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility. He is the all-time hit king, after all, which he’ll gladly autograph on a baseball for about $100.
Like the players mentioned above, Rose was a very good player for many years, but had a steep decline in the last part of his career. For Rose, the decline came later than most. He was a three-win player at ages 36, 37, and 38.
It was from age 39 on that Rose felt the effects of Father Time. For most players, the steep decline Rose experienced would have ended their careers within a year or two, but Rose had a hit record to chase and continued to play well past his usefulness.
First, the good part of Rose’s career. From 1963 to 1979, Rose hit .312/.381/.432, averaging 198 hits per season and putting up a 126 OPS+.
He had just finished his age 38 season and had 3372 career hits. That’s an impressive total for any career, but Rose wasn’t satisfied. He was determined to catch Ty Cobb. At this point, he had 80.8 WAR.
Over the next seven years, Rose added another 884 hits. He passed Cobb like he always wanted, but he also hit just .274/.354/.333, for an OPS+ of 92. As a first baseman in his 40s, he wasn’t any good on defense either, so he ended up being worth -1.2 WAR over this seven-year stretch.
Despite adding almost 900 hits to his career total, which allowed him to become only the second player with more than 4000 hits in his career, Rose was below replacement-level across these seven seasons. You’d think the manager would have benched his sorry butt, except that the manager the last three seasons was Pete Rose.
