Phillies: Expected improvements
Being over .500 is a good start for the Phillies on their way to compete for the second National League Wild Card for 2018 because the inexperienced Phils don’t lack talent, energy and motivation.
Anticipated rebounds:
For the Philadelphia Phillies and 29 other MLB franchises in April, players at the extremes put up unsustainable numbers or are slow starters. Cold weather? Well, Carlos Santana has seven consecutive 162s with warm-climate success: hitting season.
IN OTHER WORDS: “You are a success when you have made friends with your past, are focused on the present, and are optimistic about your future.” – Zig Ziglar
Like 2017, some regulars struggled in April, but the faithful have remedies: Trade them, bench them, or designate them for assignment. But the beauty of this annual ritual is only the names change.
A favorite here is the released journeyman who immediately produces for another organization. As for this campaign, the “award” goes to Ryan Flaherty: He had hit .351 in spring training and was batting .365 on April 18. But he averaged .254 for April, and the Atlanta Braves now have Jose Bautista at the hot corner.
In the right-on-schedule column, Cesar Hernandez had two consecutive .294 summers, and the underrated second sacker is currently at .273 with a .394 OBP. Additionally, he is cementing his reputation as a solid leadoff man.
The boobirds have 60 million reasons to criticize Santana. But if you remember the first baseman of the 2008 team, he was also notorious for his poor performances in chilly April. May forecast: slightly cloudy with frequent periods of sunshine.
Unlike a fan, a baseball man realizes the factors for hot and cold spells: the player’s history, the weather, and streaks to name three. To illustrate, Aaron Altherr is averaging .209 with four homers and 19 RBIs but is batting .326 with two bombs and 10 RBIs in his last 43 of 91 total at-bats. So, what did his first 48 ABs prove?
On the other hand, Rhys Hoskins has a .274 mark with five home runs and 23 RBIs but is averaging .119 with one long ball and three RBIs in his last 34 of 112 total at-bats. A manager must balance recent performance with getting a regular producing. Hitters are streaky!
Growing pains:
On a Phillies site, Santana received many negative comments, but the best was the poster who stated the first baseman had been a signing mistake before the ink had dried. And the front office should designate him for assignment because the local was right and general manager Matt Klentak by implication was wrong.
In other words, the red pinstripes should eat $60 million and pay all but the MLB minimum of almost $1.6 million (the contract’s duration) to play for another club. Yes, some are giving up on an acquisition with only 153 plate appearances.
On the other hand, Maikel Franco received glowing reviews from the fandom. Wasn’t he the same third baseman you wanted to demote to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs for the last two summers? Answer: Fast judgement is poor judgement.
Although Nick Williams hasn’t played much recently, this situation is only temporary due to the hitting of Altherr and the slumps of Santana and recently Hoskins. But Williams will also have the same opportunity to contribute offensively as a struggling Altherr did.
When the Phillies reactivate J.P. Crawford, he will also get enough at-bats regardless of Scott Kingery‘s production. However, Hernandez and Franco will have more starts: The leadoff man is at .273 with a .394 OBP, and the slugger is averaging .278 with six homers and 26 RBIs.
As for Kingery, he isn’t having difficulty due to lacking a set position, isn’t returning to Lehigh Valley, and isn’t sitting because of Pedro Florimon. But if he doesn’t improve and Crawford hits after his reactivation, Kingery might require the motivation of being an IronPig again.
Producers:
Jorge Alfaro has raised his average from .163 to .222 over his last nine contests: 32 at-bats, 10 hits, three bombs, six RBIs and batting .313. Currently, he’s exhibiting all of his at-plate tendencies: hitting to the opposite field, launching home runs and striking out.
With Santana’s bat warming up, Altherr will soon share the five spot with Williams because the lineup will return Santana (second) and Hoskins (fourth) to those early April slots. But Altherr’s recent statistics are still excellent: 14 games, 43 ABs, 14 hits, two long balls, 10 RBIs and a .326 mark.
Due to Crawford’s stint on the disabled list, Franco has been starting since April 28: 10 contests, 39 at-bats, 13 hits, four homers, eight RBIs and a .333 average. In other words, he’s taking advantage of playing every day, while the opportunity presents itself. And he leads the Phillies in home runs (6) and RBIs (26) along with a .278 mark.
ANCIENT WORDS OF WISDOM: “The will to win, the desire to succeed, the urge to reach your full potential: these are the keys that will unlock the door to personal excellence.” – Confucius
While Franco’s improvement is from the last two seasons, Santana’s is from a dreadful March and April. In fact, he’s already putting up shift-like numbers in May. Translation: The defensive alignment lowers the slugger’s average to limit the opposition’s scoring ability.
Santana, 32, March and April stats:
- 2018: 26 Gms., 91 AB, .165, 2 HR and 11 RBI (Phillies).
- 2017: 24 Gms., 98 AB, .224, 2 HR and 16 RBI.
- 2016: 20 Gms., 75 AB, .240, 3 HR and 11 RBI.
- 2015: 21 Gms., 71 AB, .239, 3 HR and 11 RBI.
Pluses and minuses:
Considering Santana’s Mays, they aren’t much better than his Aprils, and he is still unfamiliar with many NL hurlers. However, most stars are more productive in their first campaign for a new organization: a good first impression. And a warmer-than-usual May could lead to a solid performance for the first sacker this month.
Santana, 32, May stats (all current stats are through May 8):
- 2018: 7 Gms., 29 AB, .241, 3 HR and 7 RBI (Phillies).
- 2017: 27 Gms., 104 AB, .231, 4 HR and 14 RBI.
- 2016: 29 Gms., 106 AB, .217, 6 HR and 14 RBI.
- 2015: 22 Gms., 83 AB, .217, 3 HR and 16 RBI.
Santana, 32, after-May stats (four months):
- 2017: 103 Gms., 369 AB, .276, 17 HR and 49 RBI.
- 2016: 109 Gms., 401 AB, .274, 25 HR and 62 RBI.
- 2015: 111 Gms., 396 AB, .232, 13 HR and 58 RBI.
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From June 1 to season’s end, the slugger is a .275 bat with 20 bombs. And the Phils clearly prefer run production down the stretch toward 2018’s postseason and beyond. As for April and May, his veteran leadership is to regulars what Jake Arrieta‘s is to the rotation. Money doesn’t buy just hits.
Keep in mind; fans don’t understand front-office decisions are total value, not just dollars. The faithful expect $60 million worth of hitting, while GMs today overpay and accept the risk for hard-to-obtain needs –like Tyler Chatwood— and don’t anticipate the impossible based solely on a financial agreement.
To sum up, Klentak has needed a left-handed bat with 30-homer potential, and Michael Saunders was the poor man’s version for ’17. As for fans, they believe without a second thought the exec’s job is to acquire the perfect candidate, but the GM would have success if these stars weren’t what? Unavailable or nonexistent!
Next: Phillies: Manager's lineup strategy
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