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MLB standings at the one-quarter mark, what now?

By Bobby Mueller

NEW YORK, NY - MAY 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 10, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees 5-4. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - MAY 10: Mookie Betts #50 of the Boston Red Sox in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on May 10, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. Boston Red Sox defeated the New York Yankees 5-4. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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WASHINGTON, DC – MAY 15: Giancarlo Stanton #27 and Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees warm up before the game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on May 15, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images) /

MLB Standings: AL East

Current standings:

28-12 New York Yankees (+65 run differential)

28-14 Boston Red Sox (+64 run differential)

21-21 Toronto Blue Jays (-5 run differential)

18-22 Tampa Bay Rays (-21 run differential)

13-28 Baltimore Orioles (-56 run differential)

The Yankees and Red Sox have the best and second-best records in the league, respectively, although their run-differential isn’t on the same tier as the Astros. The Blue Jays are hanging in there at .500, a bit ahead of the Rays and well ahead of the woeful Orioles. No team in baseball is further out of first place than the Orioles.

Projected finish:

100-62 New York Yankees

99-63 Boston Red Sox

84-78 Toronto Blue Jays

76-86 Tampa Bay Rays

70-92 Baltimore Orioles

What the projections say: The Yankees and Red Sox are projected to be right there with the Astros for the best record in baseball, but only one of them can win the division. The other will be relegated to the wild card spot, where they’re only guaranteed a single game.

The Blue Jays are pretty much who we thought they were. They’re hoping to be a part of the race for the second wild card spot. The Rays and Orioles will have to improve quite a bit to reach their projected win totals.

What I think: No sane person would bet against the Yankees and Red Sox dominating this division. I’ll stick with this order also, giving the division to the Yankees and the top wild card spot to the Red Sox. I’m not as optimistic on the Blue Jays winning 84 games, but they can be a .500 team. Winning around 75 games seems exactly like something the Rays would do.

At the bottom of the AL East are the Orioles, who are awful and will continue to be awful, though regression to the mean suggests they won’t be 100-losses awful. Of course, if they trade Manny Machado and any other players who could bring back something in return, they could lose 100 games for the first time since 1988.

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