Call to the pen
Fansided

Boston Red Sox farm system is in big trouble

By Damian Dydyn

PORTLAND, ME - APRIL 19: Sea Dogs firstbaseman Josh Ockimey, right, celebrates with teammates Jeremy Rivera, Cole Sturgeon and Esteban Quiroz after driving them home with a grand slam in the seventh inning against the Hartford Yard Goats on Thursday at Hadlock Field. (Staff photo by Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images)
PORTLAND, ME - APRIL 19: Sea Dogs firstbaseman Josh Ockimey, right, celebrates with teammates Jeremy Rivera, Cole Sturgeon and Esteban Quiroz after driving them home with a grand slam in the seventh inning against the Hartford Yard Goats on Thursday at Hadlock Field. (Staff photo by Ben McCanna/Portland Press Herald via Getty Images) /
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SALEM, VA – AUGUST 23: Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Mike Torrez signs a Mobil Super hat for Jacob Ballard, 12, outside Salem Memorial Ball Park before a Salem Red Sox game as part of Mobil Super “Go the Distance” Baseball Tour August 23, 2014, in Salem, Virginia. Torrez joined the Mobil Super team to meet fans and give away autographed baseballs and other prizes. (Photo by Steve Exum/Getty Images for Mobil Super) /

Red Sox  prospect #10: Bryan Mata – RHP

The 2017 season put Bryan Mata on the map. At the start of that year, he was a promising young pitcher who had yet to succeed above rookie level. Over 17 starts at class-A Greenville, however, he managed a 3.74 ERA with a 22.7% strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate. His 3.39 FIP and 3.58 xFIP suggest that his ERA was a good measure of his talent. A significantly higher or lower figure in either might suggest a measure of luck or defense impacting the results beyond what he can control.

Having that success last season led to a promotion to high-A Salem where he has not fared so well. After six starts he sits at a decent looking 3.92 ERA. But his FIP is 6.34, and his xFIP is 6.14. The strikeout rate has dropped to 15.6%, and his walk rate is a terrifying 20.8%.

He has also seen a massive increase in ground balls going from 52.3% to 70.9%. Given his drop in BABIP to .273, he’s likely giving up very hard contact on the ground. He’s also seen his HR/FB rate climb nearly six percent to 11.1% on the season.

In short, he’s getting rocked. There is time for him to turn it around, but as we approach the middle months, the clock is ticking on prospects establishing a value for potential trades. Mata was likely one of the more tradable assets Dombrowski had at his disposal coming into the season. If he’s going to regain that value, he needs to figure it out immediately.

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