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Designated Hitter: Three-run homer era in American League becomes ‘selective’

By Rick Soisson

LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 27: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) throws his bat after flying out during an exhibition MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 27, 2018 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - MARCH 27: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Shortstop Andrelton Simmons (2) throws his bat after flying out during an exhibition MLB game between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 27, 2018 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The three-run homer era in American League becomes “selective” due to the Designated Hitter rule.

The late Baltimore Orioles manager Earl Weaver was well-known for his love of the three-run homer. This love became pronounced about 1977 after the Designated Hitter was introduced in the American League, and Earl Weaver once even said, “The three-run homers you trade for in December will always beat brains.”

Fast forward 41 years and MLB fans find themselves in a three-run homer era in both leagues, with the Designated Hitter the root of the problem. The polar opposite of the three-run homer, of course, would be a strikeout with two men on base while trying to hit that homer.

Many fans would probably assume Earl Weaver’s old league always leads the NL in striking out and especially now, in the era of launch angle optimization studies. Wrong. Wrong. Wrong.

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A snapshot taken May 17 before play indicated that 29 of the best 50 players by strikeout percentages this season are AL players, according to TeamRankings.com.

Moreover, the higher up the list one goes, the more unbalanced the figures were. Of the top 25 players that afternoon, only nine were National Leaguers, and among the top 10, only three were players in the Senior Circuit.

Additionally, the highest ranked player for the NL was Nick Markakis, a long-time AL starter who moved on to Atlanta in 2015.

His K-rate was an excellent 21st-century figure – 8.9 percent. Three current AL players, however, were above him: Andrelton Simmons (LAA) at 5.3 percent, Michael Brantley (CLE) at 7.1 and Jose Ramirez (CLE) at 8.6. Those four MLB hitters were the only ones below a 10 percent strikeout rate.

The 10th through 18th best NL players at avoiding the strikeout were all clotted between the 30th and 40th positions on the Team Rankings list. In other words, the NL has for at least six weeks become the free-swinging league the existence of the DH would suggest the AL should always be.

Long the more “small ball” league, the NL now has its best hitters – players named Rizzo, Inciarte, Herrera, Bryant, and Votto – all trailing Tigers DH Victor Martinez by at least 3.4 percent in Ks per plate appearances. Presumed $300-million-dollar man Bryce Harper strikes out 4.4 percent more often than Martinez.

Of course, it is now suggested by some that strikeouts follow taking pitches to some extent, and a significant benefit to taking pitches is driving the starting pitcher from the game. This may well be, but it is also true that putting the ball in play can result in nine different positive outcomes even when an out arguably should result.

Some historical context may help here, some consideration of three pieces of data from three Hall of Fame players, two well-known, one almost is forgotten.

Many fans would probably assert Ty Cobb was the best-ever at avoiding the strikeout. They wouldn’t be far from right. In over 13,000 trips to the batter’s box, Cobb struck out only 5.2 percent of those times, and right now only one MLB player is approaching that rate for about six weeks.

Will Andrelton Simmons keep up his pace? Probably not. It’s certainly unlikely he will stay below Joe DiMaggio’s best seasonal strikeout total, 13 (a 2.1 percent rate) since he already has nine whiffs this year.

Next: Mookie Betts is on a historic pace

And it is impossible for Andrelton Simmons to reach the career figure of 1.4 percent posted tiny Joe Sewell, an infielder with the Indians and Yankees in the 1920s and early ‘30s. Andrelton Simmons already has more than twice as many strikeouts in his career (298) as Sewell did (114) in less than half the time.

However, Andrelton Simmons is leading MLB in making contact with pitches, and he is in the American League, the new contact league, thanks to the Designated Hitter.

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