WOODBRIDGE, VA - MAY 6, 2018: Outfielder Juan Soto #25 of the Potomac Nationals, single-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals, hits a solo homerun during the bottom of the third inning of a Carolina League game on May 6, 2018 against the Salem Red Sox, single-A affiliate of the Boston Red Sox, at Northwest Federal Field at Pfitzner Stadium in Woodbridge, VA.(Photo by: Diamond Images/Getty Images)
WOODBRIDGE, VA – MAY 6, 2018: Outfielder Juan Soto #25 of the Potomac Nationals, single-A affiliate of the Washington Nationals, hits a solo homerun during the bottom of the third inning of a Carolina League game on May 6, 2018 against the Salem Red Sox, single-A affiliate of the Boston Red Sox, at Northwest Federal Field at Pfitzner Stadium in Woodbridge, VA.(Photo by: Diamond Images/Getty Images) /
The Washington Nationals have called up Juan Soto to the major leagues. What kind of player is he now, and what kind of player could he become?
The Washington Nationals have called up fast-rising prospect Juan Soto from the minor leagues. While he will not be in the starting lineup today against the Dodgers, he could make his MLB debut very soon. Let’s look at the player he is.
Player Profile
The Washington Nationals originally signed Juan Jose Soto out of the Dominican Republic as a July 2nd signing in 2015 for a $1.5 million bonus.
Soto made his pro debut in 2016 with the Nationals Gulf Coast League team and performed so well that he earned a late-season promotion to Auburn in the short-season A-ball New York-Penn League. Overall, Soto hit .368/.420/.553 in 51 games, with 14 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs, and 5 stolen bases. He posted a 8.2% walk rate and 14% strikeout rate.
The Washington Nationals pushed Soto at 18 to full-season ball with Hagerstown, where he opened the season strong before an ankle fracture and then hamate surgery carved out a large chunk of Soto’s season. He spent some time with the Nationals’ GCL team on his rehab. Combined on the season, he hit .351/.415/.505 over 32 games with 6 doubles, a triple, 3 home runs, and a stolen base. He posted a 9.8% walk rate and a 7.3% strikeout rate.
Soto was a universally-praised prospect in the offseason, with many places ranking him among the top 100 prospects in the game. Baseball America had him #56, MLB Pipeline had him #29, and Baseball Prospectus had him #22. Our own top 150 list, Soto ranked #33 ahead of the season.
After missing that much time, Juan Soto opened the 2018 season back in Hagerstown, where he laid waste to the league before getting a promotion to high-A after 16 games. He needed just 15 games at high-A to merit a move up to AA Harrisburg. In the minors this season, over 39 games, he’s hit .362/.462/.757 with 10 doubles, 4 triples, 14 home runs, and 3 stolen bases. He’s posted a 15.9% walk rate and 15.4% strikeout rate.
Next: Soto's scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Build
Soto is listed at 6’1″ tall and 185 pounds, though I would say the weight is probably closer to 200 pounds, and he really worked on his physique since being signed, with some natural “baby fat” burned off and good muscle development, especially from his upper thighs/hamstrings up through his lower back, strengthening his core area significantly and visibly.
A lefty thrower and swinger, Soto’s setup at the plate has widened slightly this season with his feet now set outside of both shoulders. He would previously have a bit of a leg kick, but he’s eschewed that for a wider stance and more of a quick leg lift as the pitch approached, putting his weight back onto his left (back) leg.
In that moment, he takes the bat, with a high back elbow, into more of a premium line drive start position for his swing.
Hitting
Contact (65) – From his locked position, Soto explodes the bat through the zone with a line drive path and tremendous bat control. Soto has shown the ability to reach any pitch within the zone. In my views this season in the minor leagues, the only player with a better contact tool in the entire minor leagues is Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Power (60) – I wavered heavily between a 55 and 60 here. Soto has incredible generated power in his swing, but his natural swing path is more of a line drive path, which plays well with his incredible ability to impact the ball to drive plenty of balls on a line over the wall, but it could put a ceiling on his true power, unless he sacrificed contact for power with a swing angle change.
Eye (65) – This is where Juan Soto has shown the Washington Nationals the most growth in 2018. Sure, his raw strikeout rate is higher than in his short time in 2017, but he’s facing more advanced pitchers and has done tremendous work in spitting on pitcher’s pitches in pitcher’s counts this season, even though his incredible bat control would likely allow him to make contact on most of those pitches. This has led to a significant increase in his walk rate, but he is hunting the best pitch to impact each plate appearance now, rather than simply making contact each plate appearance.
Base Running/Fielding
Speed (50) – Out of the box, Juan Soto is a below-average quickness guy, but at peak speed underway, he’s an above-average runner, which should allow Soto to be an excellent player in going first to third or grabbing an extra base on a hit to the gap, but probably never a big base stealer.
Defense (45) – One of the things I’m most impressed by with Soto this year is the work he’s put in on defense. Soto has moved from a 40 to a 45 for me in corner outfield defense, and he’s receiving tremendous marks for his defensive work, frequently being noted at the park early, working with coaches on reads off the bat and positioning himself on catches. His bat will always allow him to play, but if he can even play up to an average defender in a corner, he could be tremendously valuable.
Arm (50) – In raw arm strength, Juan Soto has a 45-50 arm, but he has already shown such improvement in his defensive positioning on catches that he is able to maximize his arm much better, leaving me comfortable with a 50 grade here, and I could even see him going up beyond that with better accuracy along with maximizing his raw arm strength.
Next: Soto's comp, future
MLB Player Comp
Many have mentioned Manny Ramirez as a comp for Juan Soto, and certainly the Washington Nationals would be overjoyed with that type of player. However, in his swing and set up at the plate, Soto has always reminded me much more of Garret Anderson, the former outfielder who spent much of his career with the Angels.
Many forget just how excellent Anderson was during his time with the Angels. He was never really in consideration for MVP awards, but he was consistently an impressive player, whose career numbers jump out due to how excellent they were. He hit .293/.324/.461 over his career, but his career averages per 162 games were 38 doubles and 21 home runs, with two seasons leading the major leagues in doubles and on 30-home run season mixed into four 25+ home run seasons.
The best outcome version for Soto’s swing, though not really a comparable player in defensive position, would be Todd Helton, who had a similar approach and swing to what Soto is utilizing in 2018 throughout his career. Many will argue that his numbers are Coors Field-aided, but he still finished with a .316/.414/.539 career slash line and averaged 43 doubles and 27 home runs per 162 games in his career with two 40+ home run seasons and six 30+ home run seasons.
Future for Juan Soto with the Washington Nationals
Juan Soto is not in the lineup on Sunday due to facing Alex Wood of the Dodgers, a tough lefty on fellow lefty hitters, but he will most likely make his first start against a left-handed starter as the first two scheduled starters for the San Diego Padres against the Washington Nationals this week are both lefties.
Soto has not shown a split issue based on pitcher handedness in his minor league career, with a better OPS in 49 PA against lefties this season in the minors (1.308) than in 133 PA against righties (1.183), so he should not be a guy that needs to be platooned.
His high propensity for contact and impact ability on the ball in his swing should allow Soto to rebound quick to any slumps he should experience in his first major league time. Where he goes from there will determine his path as either an elite superstar or “just” a 3-4 bWAR player year-in, year-out (which would still be an incredible player for a farm system to produce).
The Washington Nationals needed to bring up Juan Soto due to the injuries they have at the major league level, but he should have a long career for the Nationals, and his time this year could prepare for him to take over a corner spot for Bryce Harper next season.
