The way-too-early AL MLB All-Star Team starting lineup

With more than a quarter of the season done, let’s look at the prospective starters for the AL MLB All-Star Team.

We’re just past the one-quarter point of the season, and the All-Star game is almost two months away so why not take a look at the early-season contenders for the American League MLB All-Star Team squad?

Some players are off to such scorching hot starts that they may have locked up spots on the team already, even if or when they cool down over the next eight weeks. Other players who appeared to be likely all-stars back in spring training have started slowly and will need a strong push to make the team.

One of the annual questions about all-star voting is how much a player’s career should be factored in, versus a player who has had a hot first half of the season. In 2004, first baseman Ken Harvey of the Royals made the AL MLB All-Star team when he hit .305/.353/.452 with 10 HR and 34 RBI in the first half.

That was pretty much the apex of his career. He hit .256/.311/.366 in the second half, then had one final, partial season with the Royals in 2005 and never played in the major leagues again.

In 1999, third baseman Ed Sprague of the Pittsburgh Pirates hit .300/.402/.545 with 16 HR and 53 RBI in the first half. His strong start landed him on the NL MLB All-Star team as the Pirates’ lone representative. Meanwhile, Chipper Jones didn’t make the NL roster. Sprague hit .220/.270/.350 in the second half, while Jones ended up winning the NL MVP Award that year.

Another factor in all-star voting is how much the voter should consider the statistics versus how well-known the player is. This is the all-“star” game, after all. Shouldn’t star players be in it? At second base, Jed Lowrie is having a better season statistically than last year’s AL MVP, Jose Altuve.

If this continues for another month, who should start at second base for the AL, the hot-hitting Cron, or the perennial stud Altuve?

For this article, I’ll present three picks at each position. First will be the conventional pick, which is the player who is having a good season and has some name recognition. Second, will be this year’s leader in WAR, using an average of WAR from Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Finally, I’ll show the best player at each position over the last calendar year. In some cases, the same player may fill all three spots, but we could see some surprises along the way. Here is the AL squad.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Catcher

Conventional Pick: Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Gary Sanchez (.225/.323/.549) has an ugly batting average but his on-base percentage isn’t that bad, and he’s slugging over .500. He leads all AL catchers in plate appearances, home runs, runs scored, and RBI.

He also plays for the Yankees, so he should get plenty of votes when the online ballots come out. Up until Saturday’s big four-hit, two-homer game, he was trailing Luke Maile in WAR, but that big day bumped him to the top of the WAR standings for catchers.

Combined WAR Pick: Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees (1.3 averaged WAR)

As mentioned above, up until Saturday, Toronto platoon catcher Luke Maile was leading all catchers in Fangraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR. Maile is having one of “those years.” He came into this season with a career .183/.207/.289 batting line over three seasons and 297 plate appearances.

Through Saturday’s games, he was hitting .319/.395/.500. A big part of his sky-high production is a .488 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP), which is unsustainable for a guy with a career .279 BABIP.

Last Calendar Year pick: Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees

Over the last 365 days, Sanchez has hit .263/.334/.544 with 42 HR, 98 R, and 113 RBI. He’s been the best catcher in the American League, and the only catcher close is the surprising Mike Zunino.

Speaking of Zunino, he should get some recognition for his .256/.329/.538 batting line over the last calendar year. He also has 31 HR and 77 RBI during that time.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team First Base

Conventional Pick: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

This was a tough pick because C.J. Cron is right there with Jose Abreu among the WAR leaders at first base. He also leads Abreu in runs, home runs, and RBI. Of course, C.J. Cron is not a well-known name and has never been an all-star before.

Abreu was an all-star in his rookie season and has received AL MVP votes in three of his first four seasons. Two big names at first base, Joe Mauer, and Miguel Cabrera, are injured, which further dilutes the field.

Combined WAR Pick: Mitch Moreland, Boston Red Sox (1.1 WAR)

Moreland doesn’t have the plate appearances that some of the other AL first basemen have, but he’s still leading the league’s first basemen in both versions of WAR. He’s hitting .319/.404/.606. In a little more than a quarter of the season, Moreland has been worth more WAR than in either of his last two full seasons.

Last Calendar Year pick: Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox

The AL’s top first baseman over the last calendar year is Jose Abreu, and it’s not very close. Second place is Eric Hosmer, who plays in the National League now.

Abreu has 34 homers and 106 RBI over the last 365 days while hitting .315/.367/.568. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Abreu move past Moreland in WAR over the next few weeks and sweep all three of these categories.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Second Base

Conventional Pick: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

Altuve is coming off an MVP season and a World Series title with the Astros. He’s hitting over .300, but not for the power he’s hit for over the past few seasons (.312/.364/.418). He also isn’t hitting home runs or stealing bases as he has in the past.

He only has two of each so far. Despite this, with Robinson Cano suspended for 80 games, Altuve is easily the most recognizable name at second base and isn’t having a bad year, just not nearly as good as last year. That should be enough to make him the conventional AL MLB All-Star Team pick.

Combined WAR Pick: Jed Lowrie (2.2 WAR)

Playing on the west coast for the Oakland A’s, Lowrie is quietly having the best season of any AL second baseman. He’s hitting .328/.395/.559 and already has nine home runs and 37 RBI. His career high in home runs is 16 and in RBI is 75.

He’s also never had a season in which he hit over .290. Another guy some fans may not have heard much about is Daniel Robertson, of the Tampa Bay Rays. Robertson has the second-highest combined WAR of any AL second baseman.

Last Calendar Year pick: Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

If you consider Jose Ramirez a second baseman over the last calendar year, he’s at the top of the list with 8.9 WAR (per Fangraphs). Ramirez played 70 games at second base last season but has primarily played third base this year.

If you’d prefer a full-time second baseman this year and last, it’s Altuve, with 7.3 WAR over the last 365 days. He’s more than two wins better than Jed Lowrie (5.0 WAR over the last 365 days), and 2.5 wins better than Brian Dozier (4.8 WAR over the last 365 days).

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Shortstop

Conventional Pick: Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Choosing a starting shortstop for the American League will be one of the most difficult decisions for all-star game voters this year. There are just too many good ones. Manny Machado’s shift from third base to shortstop added another big bat to the group.

With his .347/.424/.665 batting line and his 14 homers and 42 RBI, he’s the leader for the conventional pick at this point. That being said, it could also be Francisco Lindor, who is having a terrific season also.

Combined WAR Pick: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

As good as Machado has been offensively, Lindor tops him in WAR thanks to strong hitting and better defense than Machado. Lindor has 12 homers and 36 runs scored. He could easily be the conventional pick when the voting gets going. Third on the AL WAR leaderboard for a shortstop is Andrelton Simmons, followed by Carlos Correa.

A notch below those four shortstops are Did Gregorius, Jean Segura, and Marcus Semien, all having impressive seasons. Then you have Xander Bogaerts, who is hitting .301/.336/.545 but missed almost two weeks and trails the others in games played and plate appearances.

Having so many good shortstops in the AL reminds me of when they put together an all-star team in Little League and all the best players are shortstops, so they have distributed around the field at other positions.

Last Calendar Year pick: Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians

Over the last 365 days, Francisco Lindor has been the top shortstop in the AL. During this stretch, he’s hit 36 home runs and stolen 18 bases and been worth 7.0 WAR. Second in WAR over the last calendar year is Andrelton Simmons (6.6 WAR), who’s terrific defense has been accompanied by a .302/.355/.459 batting line.

Carlos Correa (5.7 WAR over the last calendar year) and Didi Gregorius (4.9 WAR over the last calendar year) have also been very impressive.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Outfield

Conventional Picks: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

All three of these guys are having incredible seasons. Betts has been out of his mind, hitting .368/.439/.767. He’s projected for a 30-30 season, which would be only the second in Red Sox history (2011 Jacoby Ellsbury).

Betts has been so good that he’s overshadowed Mike Trout, who is only hitting a ho-hum .296/.433/.636, with a 186 wRC+ that would tie his career high. Meanwhile, Aaron Judge is following up on his AL Rookie of the Year season with another season that’s nearly as good (.289/.421/.560, 164 wRC+).

Combined WAR Picks: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

In this case, the conventional AL MLB All-Star Team picks are also the WAR leaders. If the AL outfielders were in tiers, you’d have Betts and Trout at the top, with Judge on a tier of his own below them.

The third tier would be J.D. Martinez, Mitch Haniger, and the surprising Kevin Pillar. Charging up fast on the outside are George Springer and Giancarlo Stanton, who has recovered from his early-season woes. He’s hit .347/.439/.796 over his last 14 games.

Last Calendar Year pick: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees; Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels; Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox

This year’s top three outfielders are also the top three outfielders over the last 365 days. Judge leads them all with 8.1 WAR during that time. Trout is just slightly ahead of Beats, with 7.3 WAR to Betts’ 7.2. Then it drops to George Springer and Justin Upton, with 5.3 and 5.0 WAR, respectively. The crazy thing about Trout being the equal of Betts is that he’s played in 35 fewer games.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Designated Hitter

Conventional Pick: J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

This depends on the AL MLB All-Star Team ballot. Will J.D. Martinez be listed at DH? What about Giancarlo Stanton? Either one could be the AL starter at DH.

Based on current stats, the pick would be Martinez, who is outhitting Stanton in most categories. Martinez had a .339/.392/.649 batting line and has launched 13 homers to Stanton’s 11. Martinez also leads the big man in RBI, 38 to 27.

Combined WAR Pick: J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox

Martinez would also be the combined WAR pick, where he leads Stanton 1.9 WAR to 1.5. Coming in third on this list is Matt Davidson, who has become a much more productive hitter this year. Davidson has cut his strikeout rate from 37.2 percent last year to 30.2 percent this year. Even more impressive is his increase in walk rate from last year’s 4.3 percent to this year’s 15.7 percent.

Last Calendar Year pick: Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners; Edwin Encarnacion, Cleveland Indians

Over the last 365 days, Nelson Cruz has hit .266/.355/.51 and launched 36 home runs. For his part, Edwin Encarnacion has hit .260/.364/.524 with 42 homers and 117 RBI. They’ve both been in the lineup primarily at DH and have both been worth 2.7 WAR. It’s a toss-up.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team Starting Pitcher

Conventional Pick: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

At 35 years old, Justin Verlander has a 1.05 ERA in his first 10 starts. He’s also struck out 84 batters and walked just 14. He “only” has five wins, but the league leader only has seven, so traditionalists won’t ding him on that category as long as he stays near the leaders. Going back to when he joined the Astros last year, Verlander has a 1.05 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in 15 starts.

Combined WAR Pick: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros

For pitchers, I used two different versions of Fangraphs WAR, along with Baseball-Reference WAR. The two Fangraphs versions I used were the traditional Fangraphs WAR that uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and the version that use runs allowed per nine innings (RA9-WAR).

I averaged the two Fangraphs WARs and the B-R WAR to determine the combined WAR leader. Justin Verlander gets the nod for the incredible numbers he’s put up this year.

On the next tier below Verlander are Garret Cole, Luis Severino, and Chris Sale. Pitchers on the third tier include Corey Kluber, Sean Manaea, Mike Clevinger, Rick Porcello, Charlie Morton, and Trevor Bauer.

Last Calendar Year pick: Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians

Going back one calendar year, the best pitcher in the AL is Corey Kluber, the Klubot. In that time, he’s gone 22-4 with a 1.85 ERA (2.53 FIP) and 295 strikeouts in 238.7 innings. Kluber has been worth 8.4 WAR over the last 365 days, beating out Luis Severino (7.5) and Chris Sale (7.1). It should be noted that Sale has an incredible 310 strikeouts in 218.7 innings during this period.

2018 AL MLB All-Star Team  Relief Pitcher

Conventional Pick: Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners

Aroldis Chapman has bigger name recognition, but Diaz is leading the AL in saves, with 15. Chapman has nine. Diaz also has a terrific 2.01 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 22.3 innings. Of course, Chapman’s numbers are impressive also. He has a 1.50 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 35 strikeouts in 18 innings.

Combined WAR Pick: Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees;

Aroldis Chapman has a very slight lead in combined WAR over Edwin Diaz, Kelvin Herrera, and Blake Treinen. Diaz leads the four relievers in saves. Chapman has the best strikeout rate. Herrera has the best ERA (1.08).

Treinen is second in saves among this group of pitchers and has a 1.19 ERA. Sitting very close with 0.8 WAR are Chris Devenski (1.06 ERA) and a by a pair of Red Sox—Craig Kimbrel (2.33 ERA, 13 saves) and Joe Kelly (2.11 ERA).

Last Calendar Year pick: Chad Green, New York Yankees

Chad Green barely beats out Osuna in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year. Both relievers have FIPs under 2.00 and FIP is the driver of Fangraphs WAR for pitchers. Osuna is currently suspended after being arrested at his home in Toronto and charged with assault.

Green is a middle reliever who has no saves over the last 365 days. Setting aside the suspended Osuna and the middle reliever Green and you get to Craig Kimbrel, with 2.5 WAR over the last calendar year.

Next: Declining Pujols and others before him

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