MLB attendance thus far: A problem beyond weather

Is MLB attendance a problem beyond just the terrible weather? Or, is there more to it?

MLB attendance was brought into focus for me, as are so many things today, by Twitter. On May 21, a fellow named Scott Lindholm, an unpretentious fellow who includes a Bible verse referent in his Twitter ID, published an MLB attendance list by each club for the season thus far. He added the simple observation, “There have definitely been weather issues, but still….”

The picture wasn’t pretty, and it crystallized something I realized I’d been aware of all season thus far. Stands are empty. Others I’ve watched games with have remarked aloud, “There’s nobody there,” but it hadn’t quite sunk in. Lindholm’s chart, based on data from Baseball-Reference drove it in.

At end of play on May 20, MLB attendance was down an average of 2021 fans a game. Moreover, even the horrid figures indicating only eleven of thirty teams have improved attendance, strike some as inflated. Most MLB fans know that attendance is never really attendance but, instead, tickets sold.

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Ticket sold figures are wedded to revenue sharing, and in that regard, this always false figure makes sense. The eye test this season, however, says that “tickets sold” is wildly off actual attendance in most MLB cities.

Teams both good and bad have suffered losses. The Red Sox were 17 games over .500 after play May 20 and featured one of the most exciting young outfielders, Mookie Betts, in the game. Their attendance was off 1419 a game. The gutted, last-place Marlins were down 10,367.

Both improved and surprisingly weak teams have suffered losses. Both teams representing the Keystone State, the Phillies, and Pirates, were six or more games over .500 and down in tickets sold by 1600 and 8405, respectively. A recent World Series team, the Indians, was down 5013 a game, but this may make some sense because, despite their first place perch, they were three games under .500.

The list of teams “drawing more people” made a little more sense – or not. The World Champion Astros and the team more or less on their heels, the Mariners were both up in tickets sold. Ohtani’s Angels (they don’t belong to Mike Trout anymore?) were up.

However, both the Athletics and the Padres were also selling more tickets, and the always struggling, fourth place Athletics’ figure was better than improvements by first-place Atlanta and two teams ahead of them in their own division, Los Angeles and Seattle.

The last-place Padres were improved by 711 fans, doing better than four teams in the NL East, three teams in the NL Central, and one team in their own division that most fans believe will finish the season with better records than the Fathers.

The Hall of Fame manager Stephen Stills once said, “There’s something happening here / What it is ain’t exactly clear,” and that applies to this matter. Yes, weather in the Northeast was pretty dreadful in April, but launch angles and analytics haven’t won over the fans of 2018 yet.

There are surely a number of factors involved in the MLB attendance drop this season, but I’m going to point to one often mentioned by former Phillies All-Star and current announcer John Kruk – the shift. It’s fairly evident that the shift drives down offensive success involving sprinting from base to base.

More than that, however, even novice fans can look at a “shifted” infield and say, to paraphrase Kruk, “I can’t believe a major league hitter can’t get a ball by that one guy over there.”

Next: The way-too-early AL All-Star Team starting lineup

The figures for all teams after play May 21 came in during the composition of this piece, and MLB attendance is now down 2065 fans a game. The only teams drawing better this year so far are the Astros and Brewers. Isn’t it pretty cold in Milwaukee in the early spring?

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