The way-too-early NL MLB All-Star Team starting lineup

With more than a quarter of the season done, let’s look at the prospective NL starters for the MLB All-Star Team .

On Monday, I wrote about the way-too-early AL MLB All-Star Team starting lineup. This time it’s the National League’s turn. The most difficult position to choose an all-star starter in the AL was shortstop, where Francisco Lindor, Manny Machado, Andrelton Simmons and Carlos Correa are all having good years. In April, it looked like Didi Gregorius was the best shortstop on the planet, but he’s gone ice cold lately.

The National League doesn’t have a position as deep as shortstop in the AL when it comes to all-star worthy players, but the three outfield spots will be a thought-provoking choice when the time comes. Longtime baseball fans have to wonder if Nick Markakis can keep up his hot start and make the all-star team for the first time in his 14^th year in the big leagues.

I won’t spoil the anticipation, but the starting pitcher for the NL should be very comfortable on the mound of the ballpark where the game is being played. When it comes to relief pitchers, though, some of the best in the NL are not traditional closers, including the amazing Josh Hader and his 59 percent strikeout rate.

As I mentioned yesterday, I’ll give three picks for each position. The first is the traditional pick, which is the player I think would be most likely to start based on their current statistics and level of fame or popularity.

The second pick is the leader in an average of Fangraphs WAR and Baseball-Reference WAR. The third pick is the player at each position who leads the league in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year. Here is the NL squad (all stats through Sunday).

MLB All-Star Team Catcher

Conventional Pick: Yasmani Grandal, Los Angeles Dodgers

There are five catchers in the NL who are very close in value this year. These five are Francisco Cervelli, J.T. Realmuto, Willson Contreras, Buster Posey, and Yasmani Grandal. Posey is the big name. He’s been an all-star three years in a row and five of the last six years. Unfortunately, Posey only has two home runs and 15 RBI so far. Yasmani Grandal has been just as valuable according to WAR and he leads all NL catchers with eight homers, 23 runs scored, and 28 RBI.

Combined WAR Pick: Francisco Cervelli, Pittsburgh Pirates

The combined WAR leader among NL catchers is Pittsburgh’s Italian Stallion, Francisco Cervelli. The guy who had a “That’s Amore” bobblehead in his likeness last April is hitting .278/.399/.522 with a strong defense behind the dish. He’s also second among NL catchers in RBI and tied for second in home runs.

Last Calendar Year pick: Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs

The top three NL catches in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year are Willson Contreras, J.T. Realmuto, and Buster Posey. Contreras just edges out Realmuto 4.3 WAR to 4.1, with Posey coming in at 3.6.

Over that period, Contreras has hit .290/.373/.526 and launched 21 home runs. The number four guy on this list over the last calendar year is a surprise—Kurt Suzuki of the Braves, at 3.0 WAR.

MLB All-Star Team First Base

Conventional Pick: Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves

Right now, the competition for NL starting first baseman is a two-man race between Freddie Freeman and Brandon Belt. Freeman has a higher batting average, more runs scored, and more RBI.

Belt has more home runs and a higher slugging percentage. With Freeman leading in multiple traditional categories and playing on the very exciting Atlanta Braves team, I could see him getting the nod at first base for the NL.

Combined WAR Pick: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

Belt is just barely ahead of Freeman in combined WAR, 2.4 to 2.3. He’s been good everywhere, but particularly good away from his home park. On the road, Belt is hitting .324/.418/.686, good for a 198 wRC+. Roughly one WAR below Belt is Joey Votto, followed by the surprising Jesus Aguilar of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Last Calendar Year pick: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

No NL first baseman comes close to Joey Votto over the last 365 days. He’s hit .318/.452/.534 over that stretch, good for 6.6 WAR. Freddie Freeman is second on the list, with 4.2 WAR, followed by Cody Bellinger (3.8), Paul Goldschmidt (3.8), Brandon Belt (3.6) and Anthony Rizzo (3.6). Votto is the only player among this group with an OBP over .400, and his OBP is well over .400.

MLB All-Star Team Second Base

Conventional Pick: Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

If Ozzie Albies continues to hit anything like he’s hit so far, this will be a slam-dunk pick. The 21-year-old is hitting .282/.324/.579 with 42 runs, 13 homers, 33 RBI, and six steals. He’s been incredible to watch and one of the keys to the Atlanta Braves resurgence this season. Every team in baseball wishes they had two young players as good as Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna, Jr.

Combined WAR Pick: Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves

Albies has been worth 2.0 WAR according to both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Second in combined WAR is Cesar Hernandez, who leads all NL second baseman in steals and is second in runs scored. Asdrubal Cabrera is very quietly third in combined WAR so far, and one of the few bright spots on the Reds, Scooter Gennett, is fourth.

Last Calendar Year pick: Cesar Hernandez, Philadelphia Phillies

Cesar Hernandez leads all NL second basemen in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year, but Ozzie Albies is coming up quickly in his rearview mirror. The there’s Scooter Gennett, with 31 homers and 107 RBI over the last year.

It should be noted that Daniel Murphy is sixth among NL second baseman in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year even though he doesn’t have a single plate appearance in 2018.

MLB All-Star Team Shortstop

Conventional Pick: Trea Turner, Washington Nationals

Turner is built from the mold of shortstops from a different era, guys who cause mayhem on the basepaths. He’s first among NL shortstops in steals and second in runs scored. For those who prefer a shortstop with big-time power, there’s Trevor Story, who leads NL shortstops with 10 homers and 35 RBI.

Combined WAR Pick: Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals

Paul Dejong leads NL shortstops in combined WAR, but it won’t last long now that he’s on the DL. Turner should pass him soon, and Story will pass him if his injury keeps him out for a significant time. The surprising guy on this list is the Marlins’ Miguel Rojas, who is third in combined WAR among NL shortstops after his recent two-homer game.

Last Calendar Year pick: Paul DeJong, St. Louis Cardinals

The top two shortstops in Fangraphs WAR over the last calendar year are both on the DL. Paul DeJong is at the very top, with 4.6 WAR. Corey Seager is a close second, at 4.5 WAR. DeJong should be back this year.

Seager won’t be back until 2019. Third on the list is Trea Turner, at 4.2 WAR, then it drops to Asdrubal Cabrera (3.0). With DeJong and Seager on the DL, Turner should take over the top spot soon enough.

MLB All-Star Team Third Base

Conventional Pick: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs/Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies

Without considering ballpark effects, Bryant and Arenado are very close statistically. They both have eight home runs. Bryant has 29 runs scored to Arenado’s 25. Arenado has 25 RBI to Bryant’s 24. Arenado has a higher batting average but Bryant has a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage. This could be a very difficult vote for the casual fan.

Combined WAR Pick: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Despite their statistical similarities, when you factor in ballpark effects, Bryant has been about a half-win better than Arenado, which can be seen by his lead in wRC+, 172 for Bryant to 149 for Arenado. Third in combined WAR is Travis Shaw, followed by Eugenio Suarez. Shaw and Suarez get lost in the shuffle among the big names at third base in the National League.

Last Calendar Year pick: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs

Over the last 365 days, Bryant has been the top third baseman in the NL and second-best position player overall. He’s hit .299/.418/.549 with 114 runs scored, 29 HR, and 77 RBI. Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arenado are second and third, respectively. Then you have Travis Shaw, with 33 homers and 95 RBI over the last calendar year, followed by the injured Justin Turner.

MLB All-Star Team Outfield

Conventional Picks: Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals; Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies; Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves

A.J. Pollock would be at the top of this list if he wasn’t on the DL and likely to miss considerable time. Markakis is hitting .343/.412/.519 and among the leaders in runs scored and RBI.

Blackmon doesn’t match up to the others in WAR, but he has 12 home runs and leads NL outfielders with 36 runs scored. Fans like their traditional numbers. Harper has the name recognition and a high home run total, which will be noticed by fans also.

Combined WAR Picks: A.J. Pollock, Arizona Diamondbacks; Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies; Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves

There’s quite a race a-brewing among NL outfielders in combined WAR. Pollock (2.2), Herrera (2.1) and Markakis (2.1) are on the top tier. Lorenzo Cain (1.9) and Tommy Pham (1.8) are very close. Then there’s Albert Almora, Jr., Starling Marte, Corey Dickerson and Kyle Schwarber, all with between 1.6 and 1.3 WAR.

Last Calendar Year pick: Tommy Pham, St. Louis Cardinals; Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies; Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers

Tommy Pham has been the best position player in the NL over the last calendar year. He’s hit .308/.416/.518 with 28 homers and 30 steals, just missing out on a 30-30 “season” over the last 365 days.

Pham has 7.6 WAR during this time period, which is well above the next outfielder on this list, Charlie Blackmon, who has 6.0. Then there’s another big drop to Christian Yelich (4.7) and Odubel Herrera (4.6).

MLB All-Star Team Starting Pitcher

Conventional Pick: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

It’s Max Scherzer’s world and we’re all just living in it. The 33-year-old righty is 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA and a 1.83 FIP to go along with it. He’s struck out 104 batters in 65.7 innings over 10 starts. He should be on the mound starting the game for the NL at Nationals Park on July 17.

Combined WAR Pick: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Scherzer leads all NL pitchers in combined WAR, at 2.7. Aaron Nola (2.3) and Jacob deGrom (2.2) are in the next tier of pitchers. Nola is 6-2 with a 2.37 ERA (2.88 FIP). deGrom is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA (1.83 FIP). Beyond those three pitchers, there’s a cluster of hurlers with between 1.6 and 1.8 combined WAR, including Patrick Corbin, Johnny Cueto, Carlos Martinez, and Kyle Freeland.

Last Calendar Year pick: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

No NL pitcher has been better than The Scherz over the last calendar year. He’s gone 19-5 with a 2.21 ERA (2.50 FIP) and been worth 7.4 WAR. Aaron Nola (5.7), Jacob deGrom (5.4), Stephen Strasburg (5.3), and Zack Greinke (5.0) round out the top five. Because of injuries, Clayton Kershaw is 12^th in the NL in WAR among starting pitchers since this time last year.