Boston Red Sox: Four moves the team can make to avoid losing Blake Swihart
With Dustin Pedroia getting ready to return, Blake Swihart may be on the chopping block. Is there a better option for the Boston Red Sox?
With Dustin Pedroia due back from the DL this weekend, the Boston Red Sox have a fairly big problem on their hands. What do they do with Blake Swihart? Brock Holt is playing extremely well again. Eduardo Nunez is not. Swihart hasn’t been given a fair shake. But one of the three has to go. The team cannot afford to roster three utility players, so who will it be?
As much as we might not like it, Hanley Ramirez probably isn’t going anywhere even if he can’t hit. And even though it’s becoming increasingly obvious that Jackie Bradley Jr.’s days as an above average hitter aren’t coming back, it seems the team isn’t willing to move him either. The obvious answer is to DFA Swihart. Maybe they can work out a deal for something of value, minimal as that would be. But what if the team got a little nuts and did something more radical? Here are four options that might be better than the more likely DFA of Blake Swihart.
DFA or trade Jackie Bradley Jr. instead.
His glove is amazing, right? Well, he’s only tied for 16th in outs above average (according to Baseball Savant). He has made 2 four star catches in 3 opportunities but just 1 five star catch in 10. He’s 1 for 2 in 3-star catch opportunities and 15 of 16 one and two star catches. So he makes all of the routine plays, but the generational glove hasn’t been on display this season. In fact, there’s probably a decent chance the team wouldn’t lose anything in center field if they had Mookie Betts out there instead.
Betts has made 2 out of 7 five-star catches, 1 out of 2 four-star catches and converted all of his one-, two- and three-star opportunities in a very difficult Fenway right field. The problem with replacing Bradley with Betts is that it moves J.D. Martinez into a corner permanently and would likely mean Andrew Benintendi in right field at home. Benintendi is a solid defensive left fielder, but the team would see a significant hit to their overall outfield defense with him in right regularly.
JBJ can’t hit, though.
He has looked better in the last week with a .753 OPS. But it’s starting to look like the guy we saw in 2016 was a mirage. The strikeout rate is back up, the hard-hit percentage is down, and he’s pulling everything. At 28 years old, chances are he’s probably what his career rates say he is. What we saw in a partial season in 2015 and the following season are looking more and more like outliers. And his 2017 wRC+ matches his career rate of 90 exactly. So, even though he likely has a hot streak in him at some point this season, I’d bet he’s more likely to end up there than above average.
If the glove isn’t superlative, and the bat is below average, that’s not a starting caliber player. Even if the team doesn’t opt to DFA JBJ, there’s probably a good chance he ends up a 4th outfielder before the season is over.
DFA or trade Eduardo Nunez.
Yeah, I know, he was just signed to a two-year deal. Okay, fine, a one year deal with a player option. But here’s the thing; he’s not hitting and he’s never been a good defender. He’s a lesser version of Brock Holt in just about every way. That makes him redundant and expendable. His 62 wRC+ is the worst we’ve ever seen from him at the major league level. So it’s a fair bet that he’ll improve going forward. But how much?
The 112 wRC+ in 2017 was inflated by an unsustainably hot run after being traded to the Red Sox in late July. In his previous two seasons, he posted wRC+’s of 105 and 101. For his career, he has a 94. Basically, he’s a league average bat who can give you not horrendous defense at a bunch of positions. And that’s a nice piece to have when you don’t already have one that does almost everything better.
It was worth a try but…
The terms of Eduardo Nunez’s contract were such that I didn’t mind the signing. But I had been hoping to see the team give Swihart that role to start the year. Now that we’re faced with Dustin Pedroia’s return from the DL, I’d much prefer to see them make that decision late as opposed to never.
The only thing Nunez has done better than Holt historically has been stealing bases. He swiped 24 in 2017 and 40 the year before that. Unfortunately, he’s not even doing that anymore. And that leaves us with a reason to wonder if his late-season knee injury is lingering a bit and sapping his speed. If he can no longer steal bases at an elite level, he probably doesn’t have a place on a championship hopeful team.
This might be less likely than DFAing Jackie Bradley, but I’d prefer it over that scenario given the surrounding pieces on the roster right now.
DFA or trade Hanley Ramirez.
Speaking of unlikely, giving up on a player you are playing $22M just isn’t something a front office does every day. That said, they did exactly that with Pablo Sandoval last season. The situation was a bit different, of course. Sandoval hadn’t contributed on the field at all at any point since signing. He also hadn’t been around the clubhouse enough to become a part of the team’s emotional fabric. So it was mostly an accounting move when they did it.
Hanley is a well-liked player among his teammates. He has actually had some runs hitting the snot out of the ball. He even started the season on one such run. But he looks lost at the plate right now and there is a superior hitter wasting way on the bench. His name is Mitch Moreland and he also carries with him a much better glove. Chances are if a move is made with Hanley Ramirez, it will be swapping his role with Moreland’s, not cutting him.
But then there is that pesky vesting option.
Four hundred ninety-seven plate appearances. That’s what he needs for his option to vest and for the team to be on the hook for another $22M in 2019. That’s a lot of money to pay for a first baseman who may be a league average hitter and a below average glove at this point in his career. Especially when the team can get that from Sam Travis or Josh Ockimey. Allowing that option to vest is probably not good for the 2019 Red Sox. But is it good for the 2018 club?
Team chemistry is a complicated thing. It’s impossible to quantify but it is obviously a real phenomenon. Removing a popular player from the clubhouse over money is one of those things that can come back to bite you in the rear end. As much as the idea of Hanley making that kind of money to be, at best, a league average player next year makes me cringe, there is something special about this group of players. And I don’t think I want to see the team mess with it. So this one is probably the least likely option yet. Though if it’s this or lose Swihart I’d definitely have to think hard about it. Keeping a former top catching prospect in the game while avoiding that vesting option is at least tempting.
DFA or trade Sandy Leon.
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Luckily, there’s a far more palatable option on the table. In fact, this seems like a no-brainer to me. But I’m not in the Red Sox front office, and all indications are the team does not agree with my assessment. Here’s the thing: Sandy Leon can’t hit. I know what you’re saying. He has an .889 OPS over the last 28 days! Sure, but that’s in just 10 games with just 2 extra base hits. And even with that run his overall wRC+ is 54.
At best he is his career wRC+ of 75. You can argue that he’s a better hitter than Christian Vazquez who can’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag this season. But the team just invested in Vazquez with a three-year deal, so he’s not going away any time soon. Vazquez is likely also the better defender, and this front office has made it clear that catcher defense is a priority.
Is catcher defense worth burning two roster spots on guys who can’t hit?
I’m all for having a catcher on staff who can’t hit but who brings the goods behind the dish. I’m even okay with that guy being the primary starter. But having two of them? That’s much tougher to swallow. Especially when you have a player on the 25 man roster who is very likely a better hitter than either by a significant margin. Not to mention one who has always had scouts expecting his glove to come around to at least average. No, Swihart hasn’t hit this year but he hasn’t been given the chance to get into any kind of rhythm. Get him out there regularly and he’ll hit a bit. More than Sandy Leon would at any rate.
This option is the easiest way to not risk handing Swihart over to another team for virtually nothing and watching him blossom in another uniform. Sandy Leon is 29 years old and aside from 2016, has never hit. There simply isn’t any reason to assume that will change at this point in his career. With the role of glove first field general covered already, let the redundant and likely lesser version of that archetype go. Swihart can start suiting up 1-2 times per week instead. Some of the pitchers might gripe a little, but they’ll get over it. The potential upside with Swihart is too high to lose over a player who might not even be good enough to land a major league contract after he is released.