The 2018 Milwaukee Brewers versus the franchise’s previous fast-starters
How do the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers compare to other hot-starting teams in franchise history?
At 31-19, the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers are off to their best 50-game start in franchise history. They’ve achieved this mark despite a bit of a roller-coaster start to the year. The Brewers won their first thee games, then went 5-9 over the next two weeks to drop to 8-9 for the season.
Then they got hot again. From April 17 to April 25, the Brewers won seven straight games and moved into first place in the NL Central. During this stretch, they beat up on struggling teams in Cincinnati, Miami and Kansas City. Those three teams have combined for a .345 winning percentage this year. The Brewers were feasting on the bottom-feeders.
When it came time to face a legit team in late April, the Brewers were swept in a four-game series against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. They’ve righted the ship since then, going 15-6 over the last few weeks to get to 31-19 on the season. It’s the first time a Milwaukee Brewers team has ever been over .600 through their first 50 games.
The Brewers franchise started in 1969 as the Seattle Pilots. They only played one year in Seattle before moving to Milwaukee and becoming the Brewers. Their first year in Milwaukee was a rough one, especially through their first 50 games. That Brewers team was 15-35. It’s still the worst first 50-game mark in franchise history.
This year’s squad is the 50th edition of the Pilots/Brewers. The team’s average record through 50 games is 24-26. They’ve been at or above .500 twenty-six times in 50 years. In those 50 years, there have now been seven teams who won 28 or more of their first 50 games. Let’s look at the first six times a Brewers team achieved this mark.
1980 Brewers
First 50 games: 28-22, .560, 2nd place, 3.5 GB
After first 50 games: 58-54, .518
Finish: 86-76, .531, 3rd place, 17.0 GB
From their inaugural year as the Seattle Pilots in 1969 through the 1977 season, the Brewers had nine straight losing seasons. Everything changed in 1978 when the Brewers had their first winning season, going 93-69. Despite that success, it was only good for third place in a tough AL East that included the 100-win New York Yankees and 99-win Boston Red Sox.
The Brewers were over .500 again in 1979, then got off to one of their best starts ever through 50 games in 1980. Of course, it didn’t happen right off the bat. The 1980 Brewers started 16-18 before embarking on a six-game winning streak that would spur a 12-4 run to get them to 28-22. That 28-22 record through their first 50 games is tied for fifth-best in franchise history.
Those Brewers would peak at 42-30 through July 1. From that point forward, they went 44-46 to finish at 86-76 and in third place, 17 games behind the Yankees and Orioles, both of whom won at least 100 games. It’s tough to compete in a division that includes two 100-win teams (just ask the Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles this year).
The top player on the 1980 Brewers was future Hall of Fame shortstop Robin Yount, who filled the stat sheet with a .293/.321/.519 season that included 121 runs, 87 RBI, 49 doubles, 10 triples, 23 homers and 20 steals. He was worth 7.1 WAR (Baseball-Reference) and this was his first all-star season. Other top players on the team included Cecil Cooper (6.8 WAR), who led the league in total bases and RBI, and Ben Oglivie (6.5 WAR), who led the league in home runs.
1987 Brewers
First 50 games: 28-22, .560, 3rd place, 4.0 GB
After first 50 games: 63-49, .563
Finish: 91-71, .562, 3rd place, 7.0 GB
The 1987 Brewers are the team most fans remember as the fastest-starting team in franchise history. They won their first 13 games and 17 of their first 18. For three weeks to open the 1987 season, they just couldn’t lose. By May 2, they were 20-3 and five games up in the AL East.
Then it all fell apart. The Brewers lost 12 straight games and 18 of 20. They recovered to win six of their next seven and had a 28-22 record through 50 games, which is tied for the fifth-best record in franchise history. As you can see, they got there in a very unconventional way with their good and bad streaks early in the season.
After winning 56 percent of their first 50 games, the Brewers won 56 percent of their next 112 games to finish with a record of 91-71 (.562). That put them in third place, seven games behind the Detroit Tigers and five behind the Toronto Blue Jays. It was their best season since their 1982 World Series campaign, but still a disappointment after starting 13-0 and 17-1.
The top players on the 1987 Brewers were left-handed pitcher Teddy Higuera (6.3 WAR), DH/3B/2B Paul Molitor (6.0 WAR), right-handed pitcher Bill Wegman (4.6 WAR), and centerfielder Robin Yount (3.3 WAR). Higuera was 18-10 with a 3.85 ERA. Wegman won 12 games with a 4.24 ERA.
Molitor was transitioning to the DH role at this point. He played 41 games at third base, 19 games at second base, and 58 at DH. At the plate, he hit .353/.438/.566 and led the league in runs scored and doubles. Yount was in his third year as an outfielder after playing shortstop for the first half of his career. He hit .312/.384/.479, with 99 runs scored and 103 RBI.
2007 Brewers
First 50 games: 28-22, .560, 1st place, 5.0 games ahead
After first 50 games: 55-57, .491
Finish: 83-79, .512, 2nd place, 2.0 GB
The 2007 Brewers are tied with two other Brewers teams for the fifth-best 50-game start in franchise history. That’s not bad, but they could have been so much better. They were 26-15 through 41 games before going 2-7 to land at 28-22 after 50 games.
This was a sign of what was to come. After starting the year winning 56 percent of their first 50 games, the Brewers were under .500 over their final 112 games. They ended up with 83 wins and finished just two games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. Among their 79 losses were nine excruciating walkoff losses.
The 2007 Brewers were the first Brewers team to finish over .500 since 1992. They had a good young core of players 25 and under: Corey Hart, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks and Ryan Braun. Fielder hit 50 homers and Braun hit 34. Hardy was a good-fielding shortstop who hit 30 doubles and 26 homers. Weeks only played 118 games but was 25-for-27 in steals and scored 87 runs.
On the mound, Yovani Gallardo was 21 years old and a couple years away from becoming a consistent 30-start pitcher for the Brewers. Ben Sheets, at 28 years old, was 12-5 with a 3.82 ERA. This would be the first of two straight all-star seasons for Big Ben.
The following season, this core group of players would help the Brewers win 90 games and make the playoffs for the first time in more than 20 years. Many of these players were still there in 2011, when the Brewers were 96-66 and made it to the NLCS before losing in six games to the St. Louis Cardinals. That remains the last Brewers team to make the postseason.
1981 Brewers
(Strike-shortened season)
First 50 games: 29-21, .580, 3rd place, 1.0 GB
After first 50 games: 33-26, .559
Finish: 62-47, .569, 1st place, 1.0 games ahead
The 1981 Brewers are one of two Brewers teams to start the year 29-21, good for third-best in franchise history. Through 56 games, they were 31-25 and in third place in the AL East. That’s when the 1981 strike occurred and the season was halted for almost two months.
Coming off the work stoppage, the Brewers won seven of their first 10 games en route to a second half record of 31-22. That landed them in first place in the NL East for the second half. Because of the strike, MLB scheduled the first half winners of each division to play the second half winners in a five-game playoff. The Brewers lost this series in five games to the New York Yankees, ending their season.
This 1981 team was the pre-cursor to the “Harvey’s Wallbangers” team that made it to the World Series in 1982 (losing to the Cardinals in seven games). This team had all the usual suspects from that era, including Ted Simmons, Cecil Cooper, Jim Gantner, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Ben Oglivie, and Gorman Thomas.
Yount, Cooper and relief pitcher Rollie Fingers were the three best players, with Fingers winning one of the most undeserved MVP Awards in baseball history. Both Mike Schmidt and Andre Dawson were worth three more wins above replacement than Fingers. The pitcher with the handlebar mustache also won the NL Cy Young Award, as he led the league in saves and had a 1.04 ERA. That award was also questionable. Steve Carlton had 5.6 WAR to Fingers’ 4.2.
![September 26, 2014: Milwaukee Brewers Catcher Jonathan Lucroy (20) [7134] in action during a game between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire/Corbis via Getty Images)](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/927f4a712dcc14e4723beb8500c2eec4ef93e2cecb41e14d8d9a8126af87548a.jpg)
2014 Brewers
First 50 games: 29-21, .580, 1st place, 1.5 games ahead
After first 50 games: 53-59, .473
Finish: 82-80, .506, 3rd place, 8.0 GB
The most recent Brewers team to have a hot start through 50 games was the 2014 version that started the year 29-21. That’s tied with the 1981 Brewers for the third-best 50-game start of any team in franchise history. These Brewers started the year 10-2 and were 20-7 near the end of April, so their 29-21 record through 50 games was actually a disappointment considering how they played during the first month of the season.
In fact, after starting 20-7, the 2014 Brewers would go 62-73 over the rest of the season and would finish in third place in the NL Central, eight games behind the St. Louis Cardinals. This 82-80 season was in the middle of a tough stretch for the franchise that included three fourth place finishes in four years from 2013 to 2016.
The top player on the 2014 Brewers was catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who hit .301/.373/.465, led the league in doubles, and made his first all-star team. He finished fourth in NL MVP voting. Outfielder Carlos Gomez also made the all-star team. He hit .284/.356/.477 with 95 runs scored, 23 home runs, and 34 steals.
A non-descript starting rotation included Wily Peralta (17-11, 3.53 ERA), Kyle Lohse (13-9, 3.54), and Yovani Gallardo (8-11, 3.51 ERA). Lohse recently retired with an Instagram post featuring a cup of beer at a ballpark and the phrase, “It’s been a hell of a ride!” In the bullpen, Francisco Rodriguez led the team with 44 saves.
2009 Brewers
First 50 games: 30-20, .600, 1st place, 1.0 games ahead
After first 50 games: 50-62, .446
Finish: 80-82, .494, 3rd place, 11.0 GB
House That Hank Built
Before this season’s Brewers got off to a 31-19 start, it was the 2009 Brewers with the best 50-game start in franchise history. Of course, they had to scramble to get to 30-20 through 50 games because they started the year slowly. After going 3-8 through mid-April, the 2009 Brewers went 23-7 over their next 30 games. A 4-5 stretch followed that landed them at 30-20 for the season.
This Brewers team battled for the top of the NL Central through May, June and into July. They even shared first place with the St. Louis Cardinals as last as July 4 when they were 43-38. That was the high point of their season, though. After July 4, they went 37-44 and ultimately finished in third place in the NL Central, 11 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals.
A couple of bright spots on offense for the 2009 Brewers were Prince Fielder, with 46 home runs and a league-leading 141 RBI, and Ryan Braun, with 32 homers and a league-leading 203 hits. Yovani Gallardo was the top starting pitcher, going 13-12 with a 3.73 ERA. In the pen, 41-year-old Trevor Hoffman had a 1.83 ERA and 37 saves.
Next: Milwaukee Brewers Mount Rushmore
Of all the hot-starting teams on this list, the 2009 Brewers hold the distinction of having the worst record of any of them over the rest of the season. They went 50-62, for a .446 winning percentage. Overall, these hot-starting teams (excluding the 2018 squad) had a .573 winning percentage in their first 50 games and a .504 winning percentage over the rest of the season. That resulted in a .527 winning percentage for the season, which is the equivalent of 85 wins. Coincidentally, that’s the exact number of wins being projected for the Brewers by the Fangraphs Depth Charts.