Philadelphia Phillies: Their closer is in name only with a balanced attack

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Mention the name Neris, and you could start an argument. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

If Phillies fans don’t have a problem with easier saves, they will not mind the bullpen roles going forward; in fact, management’s approach will alleviate some present concerns with less stressful situations.

Sharks:

One reason the Philadelphia Phillies are near the top of the division is the rotation and the pen. Regarding the closer, if he doesn’t pitch when the toughest outs are in the ninth inning, isn’t he just the reliever who only works that frame instead of the seventh or eighth inning?

IN OTHER WORDS: “Names are not always what they seem. The common Welsh name Bzjxxllwcp is pronounced Jackson.” – Mark Twain

While baseball has flirted with expanding the active roster to 28, they haven’t because it would remove the toughest decisions for the execs. A team could have a long man and a lefty specialist in their relief corps besides seven other arms, while a full bench could also have a third catcher and a speed merchant.

Front-office strategy to maximize those 25 slots may determine the final record by a game or two. As for the Phils, they went with a long reliever instead of a reserve to pinch-hit. So far, so good. However, other organizations were more ambitious.

Considering starters, the Colorado Rockies tried a piggyback approach to counter the Coors Field effect. On the other hand, the Houston Astros’ version was analytical because they wanted their moundsmen to avoid a third time through the lineup.

The Tampa Bay Rays now have –for lack of a term– an “opener” with a reliever pitching the first one or two innings, and then the starter enters. The concept is to use the bullpen to bookend the rotation arms. Stay tuned!

If you find reasons to complain often about bad pitching performances, lower expectations can avoid some anguish. No ace, closer, starter or reliever can prevent an occasional poor outing. Don’t torture yourself!

Expected success rate:

80 percent for starters and relievers (Zach Eflin).
85 percent for aces and closers (Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta).
90 percent for top-tier closers (Mariano Rivera).

Garcia celebrates his first save for 2018. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Unforgettable:

Most firemen don’t routinely reel off 1-2-3 innings for a save. While a top-tier arm converts 90 percent with minimal stress, some closers have that percentage with many adventures. But remember, Brad Lidge also had some of those in 2008.

Barring the rare campaign without a blown save, all ninth-frame masters have a dud every ten contests, and some happen at the worse time. As for Hector Neris, he has blown six opportunities for 2017 and 2018 out of 41 chances: 85.4 percent. However, he has converted 28 of 31 for 90.3 percent after the first half of ’17.

Neris had three blowups out of those six, and those are the only outings most locals will never forget. But if Neris comes into a save situation, they anticipate that outcome. Human nature bests logic!

Despite having a competitive club near first place on May 27, Neris can frequently be a topic of discussion. But his closer status is secondary. Because if Seranthony Dominguez stops a rally in the seventh or retires the tough outs in the eighth, he’s preserving the victory.

However, Neris getting credit for the save could upset some fans. Does he owe you an unpaid debt for those three clunkers? Yes or no?

The Phillies’ approach to pen management is having Dominguez quiet the opposition. As for a name, he could be a shark, a dealer, a saver; a save specialist or a stopper. Ergo, he doesn’t get a save or a hold. So whatever you call him, he earns a stop.

Dominguez retires the Blue Jays with his usual efficiency. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

Expectations:

On the red pinstripes, the manager counts on relievers having success four out of every five appearances. Luis Garcia, Edubray Ramos, Adam Morgan and Tommy Hunter are in this 80 percent group, but they’ll see an occasional ninth-frame opportunity if they match up well.

As for Pat Neshek, he’ll work nonconsecutively. So when he returns in June, he’ll join Victor Arano to pitch mostly in the seventh frame.

The Phillies are following the model used by the Cleveland Indians during the 2016 postseason with a closer and Andrew Miller. In other words, Miller extinguished a threat or recorded tough outs after the fifth inning. But the Phils are calling on Dominguez from the seventh on.

WORDS OF WISDOM: “If A is a success in life, then A equals x plus y plus z. Work is x; y is play; and z is keeping your mouth shut” – Albert Einstein

Because Neris is over 90 percent in save attempts, he will often pitch in the ninth unless the most difficult outs are there. Additionally, another setup man could match up better against specific hitters in that last frame. But if you like, you can worry needlessly.

Regarding Dominguez, he isn’t just a setup man for the eighth inning. He’s the top arm in the relief corps and will receive the call with late-frame inherited runners or the hardest three-out inning after the sixth. What can you expect from him? The stop!

Ramos will also have some ninth-inning opportunities. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

The goal of 80 percent:

Phillies late-inning relievers:

Dominguez: 7 good of 7 total for 100%
Neris: 17 good of 22 total for 77.3%
Garcia: 19 good of 26 total for 73.1%
Ramos: 18 good of 26 total for 81.8%
Morgan: 16 good of 21 total for 76.2%
Hunter: 8 good of 15 total for 53.3%

Phillies starters:

Nola: 10 good of 11 total for 90.1%
*Arrieta: 6 good of 8 total for 75.0%
Pivetta: 8 good of 11 total for 73.1%
Velasquez: 7 good of 10 total for 70.0%
Eflin: 3 good of 4 total for 75.0%
Lively: 2 good of 5 total for 40.0%

* Does not include his first limited start.

Phillies relievers (stats are through May 27):

Dominguez, 23.5: 9 Gms., 10 1/3 Inn., 1 Save, 5 Holds, a 0.00 ERA, a 2.57 FIP, a 4.08 xFIP, a 0.4 fWAR and a 0.19 WHIP.
Neris, almost 29: 22 Gms., 20 Inn., 9 Saves, 3 BS, a 4.50 ERA, a 4.86 FIP, a 4.03 xFIP, a 3.45 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
Garcia, 31.5: 26 Gms., 21 2/3 Inn., 9 Holds, 1 Save, a 2.91 ERA, a 3.43 FIP, a 3.88 xFIP, a 3.41 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 0.83 WHIP.
Morgan, 28: 21 Gms., 14 2/3 Inn., 7 Holds, a 1.84 ERA, a 3.52 FIP, a 3.73 xFIP, a 3.80 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Ramos, 25.5: 22 Gms., 19 Inn., 5 Holds, 1 Save, a 0.95 ERA, a 3.58 FIP, a 3.74 xFIP, a 3.46 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
Hunter, almost 32: 15 Gms., 12 1/3 Inn., 7 Holds, a 5.11 ERA, a 3.11 FIP, a 3.23 xFIP, a 3.14 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.70 WHIP.

Next: Phillies: Between icon and phenom

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