It’s easy to use simple multiplication to create “on pace for” statistics, especially with the hot starts of Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. But a better way is combining current stats with projections.
For some baseball fans, part of their enjoyment of the game is the statistics the players put up. We like to see guys score 100 runs in a season or hit 30 homers or plate 100 RBI, such as Mookie Betts and Mike Trout. Twenty wins by a starting pitcher was the standard for decades. It’s no longer a number that many starters reach in a season, but the reverence for a 20-game winner still lingers.
At certain points of the season, it’s easy to calculate what a player might do over the entire season. When teams have played around 40 games, we can easily multiply by four to get an “on pace for” total. Mookie Betts was on pace for 52 home runs through the first quarter of the season. His teammate, J.D. Martinez, was on pace for 132 RBI.
Now that we’re roughly one-third of the way through the season, we can easily multiply by three to get a player’s “on pace for” total. Using this method, Mike Trout is on pace for 54 home runs. Mookie Betts is on pace for 156 runs scored. Manny Machado is on pace for 132 RBI. Perhaps the most surprising “on pace for” is Ender Inciarte being on pace for 54 stolen bases. His career high is 22.
Then there are the pitchers. Six pitchers are on pace for 21 or more wins. There were no 20-game winners last season, three in 2016, and two in 2015, so six 20-game winners would be quite surprising. The last time baseball had six 20-game winners was in 2002, back when Bartolo Colon was just a wee lad of 29 (and one of the six 20-game winners that year).