How about those six pitchers on pace for 21 or more wins?
- 24—Max Scherzer
- 21—Justin Verlander
- 21—Luis Severino
- 21—Corey Kluber
- 21—J.A. Happ
- 21—Charlie Morton
It turns out that none of them are projected to reach 20 wins:
- 19—Max Scherzer
- 18—Corey Kluber
- 17—Justin Verlander
- 16—Luis Severino
- 15—J.A. Happ
- 13—Charlie Morton
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One last fun category to look at is pitcher’s strikeouts. We’re in the age of the Three True Outcomes (walks, strikeouts, and home runs). Home runs are slightly down from last year but strikeouts are increasing once again.
Through the first third of the season, there are eight pitchers on pace for at least 250 strikeouts and three of those eight are on pace for at least 300 strikeouts. These eight pitchers and their “on pace for” totals:
- 327—Gerrit Cole
- 324—Max Scherzer
- 312—Chris Sale
- 294—Justin Verlander
- 270—James Paxton
- 264—Patrick Corbin
- 258—Trevor Bauer
- 255—Jacob deGrom
Letting sanity prevail, here we have the projected strikeouts for these eight pitchers:
- 296—Max Scherzer
- 281—Chris Sale
- 257—Justin Verlander
- 241—Gerrit Cole
- 236—Jacob deGrom
- 228—James Paxton
- 214—Trevor Bauer
- 194—Patrick Corbin
Of course, projections aren’t a magic crystal ball that foretells everything. Players sometimes make adjustments that aren’t accounted for by the projections.
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Sometimes players stay hot for an extended period. We might see one of the players listed above score 140 runs or hit 50 homers or win 20 games. That’s part of the fun of the “on pace for” method, dreaming of the possibilities.