Phillies: Fan favorite or goat?
After two winning months, the Phillies approach for June and July will determine the importance of the first stretch drive for this group of youngsters and veterans assembled by general manager Matt Klentak.
Your call:
Before this 162 began, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful had no doubts regarding the players they wanted to keep or trade. However, predicting tomorrow is a bit more difficult than forecasting the weather.
IN OTHER WORDS: “That’s why I’m such a big sports fan, with sports you can never guess what’s gonna happen. Most movies you get halfway through and you can kind of guess the ending.” – Michael Douglas
Judging talent from a distance, fans evaluate players differently because they reach their conclusions with partial information. But GMs have multiple departments reporting to a director who advises, in this case, Klentak, and he needs three months of input to promote most prospects.
If you’re wondering why execs need a full half of performance to decide, a minor leaguer could have a hot April and a cold May with June as the determining factor. All hitters are streaky, and most MiLB pitchers lack consistency. Therefore, the higher-ups want to know how the player handles adversity.
Concerning Double-A, one of every three successful prospects makes an active MLB roster in any role for a healthy half season. But an overall top-100 stud is more of a fifty-fifty proposition. Translation: Game speed (mental) and adjustments are the roadblocks.
As for Triple-A, producing there means a 50 percent shot for the same major league possibilities as a Double-A star. To illustrate, Rhys Hoskins earned an August promotion, but right fielder Dylan Cozens didn’t. Yes, the locals wanted both to advance.
Regarding Cozens prior to his call-up, he batted .226 with 10 bombs and 25 RBIs for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. And, again, his average was the problem. On the other hand, outfielder Roman Quinn is back on the disabled list, and not staying on the field is another reason players don’t make the big leagues.
Many fans expect dazzling performances from phenoms, while front offices with years of experience know these youngsters will mature after two or three campaigns before making an impact. Unfortunately, many locals have no time for patience.
Phenoms:
Before Scott Kingery joined the parent club, the faithful had wanted the red pinstripes to promote him from the Double-A Reading Fightin Phils in 2016 and 2017. But Klentak wisely decided against burning a 40-man spot for a September call-up from Lehigh Valley. Of course, fans voiced their displeasure regarding the GM.
Through April 15, Kingery had batted .280, but he has only hit .189 since. Yet he has five knocks in his last 19 at-bats for a .263 mark and is looking better at the plate. Perhaps, he’s figured a few things out.
The Phillies have no one on the IronPigs to replace Kingery. So, those boobirds ready to return him to the Allentown affiliate won’t see him demoted either. He’ll probably have until mid-July to prove himself.
Like Kingery, Hoskins was popular with the Philly fan base when he was in Reading and Lehigh Valley. The difference is the splash he made with 18 home runs and 48 RBIs after his long-awaited advancement to the Phils. Additionally, he batted .303 with three long balls and 16 RBIs by April’s end.
He and Kingery are experiencing adversity at the top level, and management realizes the difficulty of their challenge, even if some locals are saying they’re hurting the team. Growing pains! In fact, that foul ball off Hoskins’ chin had the feel of his lowest point with a .161 May average, two homers, nine RBIs and a DL stint. Stay tuned.
ON THE OTHER HAND: “A rabid sports fan is one that boos a TV set.” – Jimmy Cannon
Whipping boys:
Hector Neris saved 19 of his last 19 opportunities for ’17, but he did not erase the memory of his blowup against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nervousness aside, when Neris, Tommy Hunter, Adam Morgan, Luis Garcia, Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos have recently had struggles, Kapler quickly ended those appearances. Relax!
Despite being 3-1 with a 2.30 May ERA, Vince Velasquez is only one bad start away from “I told you so” comments. In other words, some feel he’s not a starter and walks too many to be a closer. But no one says prune him from the roster. Trade him?
For now, no paying customers want to acquire a pitcher for Cesar Hernandez, and it will stay that way until Kingery starts producing. Then, the leadoff man will be vulnerable to performance-related criticism.
As for Maikel Franco, many fans decided he had no value and weren’t happy to see him get another chance. They already had replacements in mind and were ready for the third baseman to be an IronPig with no expectation of returning. Out of sight, out of mind! Well, he’s hitting .262 with eight bombs and 32 RBIs.
Odubel Herrera‘s antics had the boobirds howling, and they apparently didn’t want him on the 2018 club. But Herrera is a free swinger like Roberto “the Great One” Clemente and Vladimir “Vlad the Impaler” Guerrero. Well, Herrera is fifth in the National League in hitting with a .320 average plus seven home runs and 32 RBIs.
Watching stars on other teams, many fans envy the opposition’s prized talent and boo the pests on those squads. But Herrera annoys the competition that way. And what is he that the Phillies have never had? A Clemente, a Guerrero!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies plate-discipline comparison through May 30.
- Hernandez: 20.9 K% and 15.5 BB% with a .381 OBP.
- Hoskins: 28.2 K% and 15.7 BB% with a .363 OBP.
- Herrera: 17.1 K% and 8.3 BB% with a .384 OBP.
- Santana: 14.0 K% and 14.9 BB% with a .338 OBP.
- Franco: 14.9 K% and 5.5 BB% with a .298 OBP.
- Kingery: 25.4 K% and 5.8 BB% with a .272 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
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Phillies’ stats through May 30:
- Hernandez, 28: 53 Gms., 239 PA, a .269 Avg., a .381 OBP, a .428 SLG, a .159 ISO, a .324 BABIP, 7 HR, 21 RBI, an .809 OPS, a 1.8 fWAR, 10 SB, 2 CS and a 6.0 Spd.
- Hoskins, 25: 52 Gms., 216 PA, a .233 Avg., a .363 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .182 ISO, a .315 BABIP, 6 HR, 28 RBI, a .778 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
- Herrera, 26.5: 52 Gms., 216 PA, a .320 Avg., a .384 OBP, a .495 SLG, a .175 ISO, a .364 BABIP, 7 HR, 32 RBI, an .879 OPS and a 1.9 fWAR.
- Franco, 25.5: 48 Gms., 181 PA, a .262 Avg., a .298 OBP, a .452 SLG, a .190 ISO, a .265 BABIP, 8 HR, 32 RBI, a .751 OPS and a 0.5 fWAR.
- Kingery, 24: 49 Gms., 174 PA, a .217 Avg., a .270 OBP, a .335 SLG, a .118 ISO, a .284 BABIP, 2 HR, 14 RBI, a .606 OPS, a 0.0 fWAR, 4 SB, 1 CS and a 6.1 Spd.
Next: Phillies: Closer in name only
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