Boston Red Sox: A look at the top 10 all time 1st round picks

All Time Red Sox Draft Pick #8. Aaron Sele: 20.1 rWAR

Aaron Sele was drafted with the 23rd pick in 1991 as a big right hander out of Washington State University. He had a pitcher’s frame, at 6’3 and would reach the majors just two seasons later. His first two seasons were incredibly encouraging. At ages 23 and 24 he posted ERAs of 2.74 and 3.83. He amassed 7.6 of his career 20.1 rWAR between them. He would spend most of the 1995 season recovering from a shoulder injury, and came back in 1996 with all the hope in the world.

Unfortunately, despite posting his second best FIP in the majors to that point, the results weren’t there. A 5.32 ERA was followed by a 5.38 in 1997 and his Red Sox career would come crashing to an end. Sele would go on to have productive seasons for the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners. But they were surrounded by more poor results. What was once a budding ace would finish his career as an exactly league average pitcher. He retired with a 100 ERA+ over 15 seasons. That’s a solid career, to be sure, but like Clay Buchholz, the promise was for so much more.

All Time Red Sox Draft Pick #7. Jacoby Ellsbury: 31.0 rWAR

This will be another controversial inclusion. Ellsbury bailed on the Red Sox in free agency. He signed a mega-deal with the rival New York Yankees following the 2013 season. It helps that that deal hasn’t worked out for the Bronx Bombers, but the sting is still there. Ellsbury was drafted 23rd overall in 2005. With stories of him running down a deer on foot preceding him, the expectations were extremely high. And he didn’t disappoint in his debut. With a 136 wRC+ in 2007, and his contributions to a championship that year, fans were all in on him.

But like Clay Buchholz, difficulty with injuries and inconsistent play held him back early on. The defense was mostly excellent, though his arm left many cold. It wasn’t Johnny Damon bad, but it wasn’t good. It wasn’t until 2011 that he appeared to tap into his full potential. That season he managed a 150 wRC+, blasted 32 HR and swiped 39 bags. This was the Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox fans had been waiting for. In fact, he earned more than a third of his career rWAR (to date) that season with 8.3.

That was the apex.

Injuries derailed his 2012 campaign. He returned in 2013 with his power looking more like what we’d seen earlier in his career. Ellsbury hit just 9 HR in 134 games, but stole a mind boggling 52 bases. If this was who he really was, Red Sox fans would have been thrilled. When he signed with the Yankees that winter, many lamented the loss. Jackie Bradley Jr. was an exciting prospect, but he lacked the game changing speed, and Ellsbury was a hard act to follow.

Of course, Bradley has outperformed Ellsbury since then. The former Oregon State outfielder has just 9.9 rWAR since the end of the 2013 season. And he hasn’t played yet this year. While he could still play a few more seasons, the chances that Ellsbury does much to alter his ranking here are low. His rWAR total is higher than the next two players. But with such a huge chunk of it tied up in one season, it’s hard to place him higher.

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