SECAUCUS, NJ - JUNE 4: 2018 Major League Baeseball first round draft picks (L-R) Alec Bohm, Carter Stewart, Travis Swaggerty, Triston Casas, Anthony Seigler and Xavier Edwards pose for a photo during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft at Studio 42 at the MLB Network on Monday, June 4, 2018 in Secaucus, New Jersey. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
SECAUCUS, NJ – JUNE 4: 2018 Major League Baseball first-round draft picks (L-R) Alec Bohm, Carter Stewart, Travis Swaggerty, Triston Casas, Anthony Seigler and Xavier Edwards pose for a photo during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft at Studio 42 at the MLB Network on Monday, June 4, 2018, in Secaucus, New Jersey. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /
With the first two rounds and the comp rounds of the 2018 MLB Draft in the books, we take a look at how the Boston Red Sox did. Was the next Boston star called last night?
Day one of the MLB Draft is in the rearview mirror, and for Boston Red Sox fans, it was a good one. Big left-handed first baseman Triston Casas fell to pick 26. And the Red Sox didn’t get cute with the choice. In 2013 when Austin Meadows was available at pick 7, the team chose to skip over him.
They selected athletic left handed starter Trey Ball instead. That decision has certainly not aged well. But this time around, the team went with the obvious choice and grabbed the best remaining power hitting prep player.
There is risk in his profile, and his very young age, but the upside is enormous. The Red Sox made a big bet here. That 70 grade power is the most intriguing tool they’ve drafted in a long time.
When their second round pick came up, another name that was tied to their first-round pick was still on the board. Jeremy Eierman. He offers plenty of upside. Despite having a plus arm, plus speed, and potentially plus power, he was considered a safe pick. The Red Sox didn’t go safe, however.
They made another big bet, and once again it was on power. Nick Decker is a prep outfielder from New Jersey. The last big prep player to come out of New Jersey is a guy you may have heard of. Mike Trout or something like that.
Now, that’s not to say he’s the next Trout. He’s absolutely not. But his raw power is up there with any other prep bat in the draft this year. The plan for day one is now clear. The Red Sox wanted to address the lack of impact power bats in the system. So, let’s take a look at how they did.
Boston Red Sox draft pick day one: Triston Casas – 1B/3B, American Heritage HS (FL)
We wrote up Triston Casas as part of our draft prep here. He’s a 6’4, 240-pound first baseman with absolutely bonkers level raw power. We’re talking Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton here. The ability to get to that power in the game is what makes Judge and Stanton so good, but that much raw power is still fairly rare and can’t be taught.
What Casas brings beyond the power is a plus arm, a solid but unspectacular glove and solid athleticism for a kid his size. The plus arm is actually why the Red Sox announced him as a third baseman.
He’ll almost certainly move to first eventually. But the team will apparently give him a chance to stick at the hot corner. As a pitcher in high school, he would hit 94 on the radar gun regularly. The ball will tear across the infield once he releases it.
He doesn’t have a quick release, though, so that particular plus tool won’t play up too much in game action. And the team will need a long term first baseman soon, while they already have a young third baseman in Rafael Devers. Not to mention two prospects who currently play there in Bobby Dalbec and Michael Chavis if Devers has to move to DH.
Will he sign?
It seems likely. Despite a commitment to the University of Miami, he was drafted roughly where he was predicted to. And the Red Sox may be willing to go over slot a little to get him inked. Plus, there is this tweet from Alex Speier:
Casas on his scholarship commitment to Miami: 'I like this fit. It's going to be hard for me to turn this down.'
Nearly every pick in the first 10 rounds will sign. With the way the CBA works, teams don’t take a big risk on players who might not.
With their allotted bonus pools limited and each slot tied to the player drafted there, it’s a huge problem when one doesn’t sign. So the Red Sox almost certainly know what it will take to close the deal.
Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs even tweeted that the Red Sox had an agreement in place with him before the selection was made. So it seems likely that it won’t take long for him to officially become a part of the Red Sox organization.
Boston Red Sox draft pick day one: Nick Decker – OF, Seneca HS (NJ)
It really isn’t fair to mention Mike Trout as part of the lead-in, to Nick Decker in the intro to this article. It’s not fair to mention Mike Trout when discussing any player, really. And the only real things they have in common are that they are both from New Jersey, and they both play in the outfield. That’s the end of the similarities.
While Nick Decker has some exciting raw power, he’s probably about maxed out for projection at 5’11 and 200 pounds. Mike Trout had room to grow and packed on some muscle which helped his power to match his projection.
That’s not to say that Decker doesn’t have plus raw power. It appears that he does. How that power will play in games comes down to his hit tool, however. And that’s more of a question. That said, he has a good grasp of the strike zone and is plenty patient. He can also be a decent corner outfielder with average run speed. But that power is what got him drafted here.
Also interesting is this tweet from Red Sox Stats:
Seems likely that this isn’t a coincidence. The Red Sox were a bit late to the party on the launch angle thing. But they appear to be buying into it now. Seeing them jump at two of the best high school hitters for exit velocity is another encouraging sign that the updating of their analytical approach is being applied across the organization.
Will he sign?
Nick Decker has a commitment to Maryland. As with most picks in the first ten rounds, the Red Sox wouldn’t have selected him unless they thought he would sign. Chances are they know what he’s willing to sign for, and the real question is will it be under slot?
MLB.com has Decker at 74th in their pre-draft rankings, which is just ten slots below where he went. Baseball America, however, has him at 110, which would put him in the 4th round. The difference between the Red Sox 2nd and 4th round slot bonus allotments is nearly $530K.
So there is an opportunity to save some money if Casas is looking to be paid more like the 13th pick than the 26th. If not, it frees up some money to target one of the players who fell out of the first round last night. We’ll get into some of those names in a bit, but first…
SECAUCUS, NJ – JUNE : Triston Casas poses for a photo with Major League Baseball Commissioner Robert D. Manfred Jr. after being selected 26th overall by the Boston Red Sox during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft at Studio 42 at the MLB Network on Monday, June 4, 2018, in Secaucus, New Jersey. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /
Where do they fit into the farm system?
This is more of an indictment on how thin this the farm system is than anything else, but Triston Casas will easily be a top 10 prospect. He may be a top 5. I wouldn’t even balk at someone ranking him 2nd behind Chavis, actually. There are some things that could push him back a little by the time he would show up in a Red Sox top 10 list, of course.
Bobby Dalbec is making that three true outcomes thing work for now. In 50 games at High-A Salem; he has a 132 wRC+ with 11 HR. His strikeout rate has actually plummeted down to 30.6% over the last week or so. But it’s way too early to start wondering if that’s a permanent change.
If it is, he could propel himself to the top of the system. Additionally, Josh Ockimey has taken another step forward and put himself into the mix at 1st base long term. He has a 137 wRC+ with 7 HR at AA Portland.
Nick Decker is tougher to place, but at worst he’ll be in the top 15 or so. There just aren’t that many hitters worth talking about in the top 20. And a lot of the pitchers don’t have terribly high ceilings. His competition on these lists from outfielders amounts to Cole Brannen who has a 36 wRC+ in A ball, and that’s it. Keep an eye on soxprospects.com for updates. They will likely have the draftees, and IFA signees worked into their top 60 for the system in late August.
Boston Red Sox Day Two MLB Draft.
A number of interesting names are still on the board right now. Chief among them are two names expected to go in the first round of the MLB Draft: Kumar Rocker and Cole Wilcox. Wilcox was ranked number 19 in the draft by MLB.com and number 37 by Baseball America. Rocker was 23rd on that list for MLB.com and 13th for Baseball America.
Both are right-handed high school pitchers with plenty of upside. Easily in the same range for a ceiling as Alex Scherff, who the Red Sox drafted in the 5th round last year, but paid like a 2nd rounder.
There are another dozen players ranked below 78th (the final pick made last night) on MLB’s top available names list. These kids may be looking for bonuses closer to where they hoped to be drafted instead of where they actually go.
The Red Sox may target some college arms like Tristan Beck. He would be a relatively safe pick with a higher floor, but not a huge ceiling. Or maybe they go for Arkansas RHP Blaine Knight who can touch 97 MPH and flashes a plus cutter/slider.
If they want to continue making bets on loud tools, Nander De Sedas also has plus raw power and could stick at shortstop.
As a high school draftee, he would be a nice potential long term replacement for Xander Bogaerts should he depart in free agency. He is ranked 55th by MLB.com and 28th by Baseball America.
Bring on day two!
Day two playing out will be a major component in determining whether this is a strong draft for the Red Sox or not. However it goes, they’re certainly off to a good start.
What kind of power does new Red Sox prospect Triston Casas possess? His high school coach had to text the school's neighbors to move their cars when he took batting practice. On Casas and what the Sox hope is a hand-in-glove Fenway fit. https://t.co/lWMTGtU6iH via @BostonGlobe
If you are looking to follow the action in rounds 3-11, coverage kicked off at 12:30 streaming at MLB.com. In the meantime, we’ll leave you with this tidbit from Alex Speier:
If that doesn’t get you excited, maybe prospects just aren’t your thing. For the rest of us, giddy up! Who are you looking to see drafted by the Boston Red Sox on day two of the MLB Draft? Let us know in the comments!
