Boston Red Sox: 2018 MLB draft day three recap and full grade
Who stood out for the Red Sox on day three?
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #11 – Nicholas Northcut, 3B/RHP – Mason Williams HS (OH)
Nicholas Northcut was announced as a right-handed pitcher. That may mean he intends to play two ways early on in his minor league career. But more than likely, the Red Sox drafted him for his bat. The third baseman has plus raw power that has been rated as highly as 70 on the 20-80 scale. What’s exciting about that power is that he doesn’t have much of a problem with his swing and miss rate. So it could play up to near his raw rating in games. He has a strong arm and good hands to compensate for limited range at the hot corner. As a pitcher, he works in the low 90’s, but again, it’s his bat that got him picked.
This is a profile that, in a vacuum, likely goes no later than the third round. Baseball America had him ranked 69th, MLB had him 81st on their list. He has a firm commitment to Vanderbilt. That commitment is likely why he fell out of the first 10 rounds. Chances are it will cost more than the roughly $560K the Red Sox third-round draft slot was worth to sign him. Luckily, the Red Sox may have freed up as much as $800K with their under slot picks.
Will that be enough? That’s the question, but if you are looking for reasons to hope here’s a reason. The fact that he was selected in the 11th round and not near the very end of the draft may indicate that they’ve had conversations with him about what it will take to get it done. Including giving him the chance to pitch as well. This is easily the most intriguing day three pick the team made.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #12 – Chase Shugart, RHP – Texas University
Picks in this range are capped at $125K per draftee and don’t count toward the total draft pool. Unless they go over. Any overage comes out of that pool. That’s why Northcut’s cost is tied to the money they likely saved on day two. This pick probably won’t exceed that limit, and if it does it won’t be by much. Shugart is rated 294th by Baseball America, and is a college junior coming off of a season in which he moved from the bullpen to the rotation and didn’t succeed in his new role. He was almost certainly drafted by the Red Sox as a reliever.
And as a reliever, his fastball plays up out of the pen and his slider and curve both look better as well. Starting his pro career in the pen would also give him a clearer path to the bigs, and likely a faster one. Unless he is convinced he will take a massive step forward next year as a starter, he should sign. As a senior, he’ll have no leverage and would likely be looking at an even smaller bonus.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #13 – Dylan Hardy, OF – University of South Alabama
As a college junior, Dylan Hardy could choose to go back to school which gives him a little leverage. As a senior, he loses that threat, though, so unless he believes he will have a significantly better year in 2019, he’s better off signing now. He has a good hit tool and above average speed with a little bit of pop. He played left field in college, though mostly because he was teammates with Travis Swaggerty. Hardy may end up more organizational filler than top 10 prospect, but his tools give him a chance to crack the big leagues eventually.
This isn’t a terribly exciting pick, but it is worth mentioning because of the fact that the Red Sox have such little depth in the outfield organizationally. And you never know when someone will play well beyond their projections. Baseball America had him rnaked 492nd out of 500 players they bothered to write up. He may be able to get something close to the $125K the team can spend without tapping into their bonus pool.
Next: More day 3 standouts
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #16 – Chris Machamer, RHP – University of Kentucky
Yet another college reliever, Chris Machamer was very impressive in SEC play in 2018. He struck out more than a batter per inning, and finished with an ERA of 3.06. As a draft eligible sophomore, he has plenty of leverage here, and should get more than the capped amount of $125K. How much more is a good question. And how much the Red Sox have to offer will depend on the Nicholas Northcut negotiations.
Machamer has three average or better pitches in his fastball, slider and changeup. The fastball flashes above average and ticks up toward the mid 90’s as the weather warms. His slider is his go to pitch, though. The Wildcats closer throws lots of strikes and could move quickly as the Red Sox wouldn’t waste time trying to stretch him out or introduce new pitches. At the major league level his ceiling may be closer to middle reliever than closer. But a middle reliever who can strike out a batter per inning has plenty of value.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #21 – Brandon Howlett, 3B – George Jenkins HS (FL)
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Red Sox drafted a player with plus power as the carrying tool. No, really. They did. I know, it’s really out whack for them this draft. Brandon Howlett certainly has intriguing raw power, but the rest of his profile is in question. His arm is about average for a third baseman and his range isn’t anything special. He also has plenty of swing and miss in his game. So while the raw power is there, getting to it in games may be a challenge.
As a high school draftee, he has plenty of leverage in negotiations. Chances are the Red Sox won’t have enough of their bonus pool left to get him inked if Nicholas Northcut signs. But if he doesn’t, Howlett might get an offer he can’t refuse. The power being in place means there is time for the other tools to develop. If he can cut down on the strikeouts and improve his contact rate, he could go from fringy to legitimate prospect in a hurry.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #29 – Mason Ronan, LHP – Penn Cambria HS (PA)
Ranked 308th by Baseball America, Mason Ronan is a projectable left-handed pitcher who has flashed a plus curveball and an average fastball. He lacks consistency and a true third pitch. His fastball is more mid to high 80’s than low 90’s. But at 6’2 and 190 pounds, there is plenty of room for him to develop some velocity.
Because he is a raw high school pitcher who was drafted late he won’t be offered a bonus significantly over the $125K cap. That means he will likely go to college and take his chances on developing there before returning to the draft.
Next: Last group of day 3 standouts
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #30 – Ryan Bliss, SS – Troup County HS (GA)
This is more of an old-school Red Sox pick. Ryan Bliss is a small middle infielder who makes good contact and has a chance to be an above-average defender up the middle. He actually has a little in common with Dustin Pedroia in that he’s undersized and may not quite have the arm to stay at short. That’s where the similarities end, however. Pedroia came out of college, Bliss is a high school draftee. The Red Sox second baseman has always had a big loopy swing. Bliss is more compact and repeatable. Pedroia always had surprising pop for his size, while Bliss likely won’t develop above-average power.
That said, if the Red Sox don’t sign Northcut, they may throw enough money at Bliss to get him into the system with a chance to develop into a major league regular. His bonus would be significantly higher than the $125K cap and would depend on other deals the Red Sox have on the table for their round 11-40 guys.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #34 – Jared Poland, 2B – Cathedral HS (IN)
Jared Poland is a two-way player who can man second base, third base, or take the mound. He has a good feel for hitting and a solid line drive swing. He doesn’t possess much over the fence power at this stage in his development. But a propensity for barreling up the ball means he could develop that power as he matures.
He has a commitment to Louisville, and it’s much more likely than not that he will end up there. This is one of those late round picks that teams make to have a few extra places to throw some money if other deals fall apart.
Red Sox 2018 Draft Pick #40 – Zach Watson, OF – Louisiana State
Don’t get your hopes up for Zach Watson signing with the Red Sox. He was ranked 66th by BA and 65th by MLB. The fact that he fell to the 40th round should be all the indication you need that he isn’t looking to leave LSU after his sophomore year. Unless he gets blown away with an offer. That means money to the degree the Red Sox likely won’t have access to. The only scenario in which it seems plausible that the Red Sox ink him is one where Northcut doesn’t sign and they throw every dollar saved in rounds 3-10 at him. But even that likely won’t be enough.
Watson is an above average defensive right fielder with solid pop at the plate. He posts some really impressive exit velocities, though his carrying tool is his 70-grade speed. It’s probably in his best interests to return to school and work on showing that his hit tool can play better than average. So don’t expect to see reports of him agreeing to terms this summer. If the hit tool looks better next spring, he could move up to the first or second round. As is, he was likely a third-round talent already.
Next: How'd the Sox do?
How did they do overall?
As they often do in retrospect, the plan looks obvious from here. The Red Sox added a number of plus power hitters to try and address the lack of power in their farm system. To pay the cost on the bulk of these players, they went heavily under slot on half of their day one and two picks. They scattered in some relief pitching options to help fill out a thin major league bullpen that is on the horizon. And finally, they grabbed a couple of shot in the dark late-round draft prospects in case they have money to throw around after a deal or two falls apart. In short… they went for big upside and took on significant risk to get it.
And that’s exactly what they needed to do here. In the 2017 draft, the picks were less about big upside and more about higher floors. Jake Thompson, Zach Schellenger, Cole Brennan, and even Tanner Houck all have solid floors for one reason or another. But none of them have huge ceilings. With a farm system headlined by Rafeal Devers, and a few hopeful breakout candidates in Bobby Dalbec and Jay Groome, the hope was that they could fill in around them with productive future major leaguers. That was especially important given the impending free agency of so many of their major league stars.
Things didn’t go as planned.
Unfortunately, Dalbec didn’t take a step forward last year (though he may be this year), Groome was mostly hurt and is now recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Devers is no longer a prospect. So the farm is a mess. Even the unexpected breakout of Michael Chavis was derailed by a failed PED test. Not to mention, their number one IFA signee from July 2nd passed away unexpectedly due to an aggressive form of cancer. Even last year’s draftees have struggled. It might be the worst farm system in the majors right now.
That means it was time to go big or go home. The Red Sox needed to take chances in this draft. Yeah, maybe that means they get nothing useful out of it, but it also means they have a legitimate chance to develop a star caliber player out of the crop. Did they succeed?
Next: Report card time!
Time for a grade…
It’s really tough to grade a draft an A without the team making more than the minimum two picks on day one. As a team without access to competitive balance round picks, and who did not trade for any compensation picks, they picked at 26 and 64 overall. They didn’t even have the benefit of picking early in the order like they have in the past. So, while I like what they’ve done here, circumstance has limited the effectiveness of the draft plan overall.
That’s not an indictment of the front office, of course. I’d much rather the team be winning and not picking higher. And I’d much rather the team be making money and not be handed a competitive balance pool for being “poor.” That said, because of those limiting factors, that A rating is simply out of reach. Instead, I’ll go with a solid B. Why not a B+? Quite simply, I think they let an opportunity slip past them that they shouldn’t have. They elected not to draft Jeremy Eierman in the second round.
It was possible to mix in some higher floor picks early on.
While I appreciate going after another plus raw power bat in Nick Decker, Eierman offered plus power as well. And he did that with up the middle defense (made above average by his plus arm), and plus speed. It’s a safer profile and as a college draftee, closer to the majors. That may be important if the team hopes to extend their contention window in the early years of the 2020’s. Perhaps they have already decided on a full rebuild, or perhaps they see another path toward continued contention. Regardless, the high-risk, high-reward approach, while intriguing and a refreshing change of pace, forces me to take that risk into account when determining a grade.
We’ll see whether this risk pays off, but not for a while. In the meantime, what are your thoughts on the 2018 draft? Any favorite picks? Any late round picks I missed worth talking about? Let us know in the comments!