Chicago Cubs: Tyler Chatwood’s struggles, Mike Montgomery’s break-out
Tyler Chatwood’s surface numbers are good for what he is—a fifth starter. But with his ugly peripherals and Mike Montgomery on the cusp of breaking out, the Chicago Cubs rotation may look different when Yu Darvish returns.
When the Chicago Cubs signed Chatwood in December, it was the biggest contract of the offseason. The Cubs guaranteed the former Rockies player $38 million over three years to pitch at the back end of their rotation.
But at some point during the offseason, the expectations started to climb. Cubs fans were watching the videos and seeing the nasty stuff Chatwood has. His home/away splits told the story of a pitcher who may have been underperforming at hitter-friendly Coors Field.
To start the season, those heightened expectations seemed vindicated; Chatwood pitched a 2.83 ERA in 28.2 innings in April. However, after a lousy May (5.95 ERA in 19.2 innings) and Mike Montgomery’s compelling audition as a starter, Chatwood’s seat is beginning to warm.
Finding the strike zone
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At least with Chatwood we have the luxury of easily identifying the main reason why he’s struggling: he’s allowing too many walks. In May, he allowed 23 walks over 19.2 innings.
And despite the 5.95 ERA, he has had some success in working around walks. In his first two May starts, he allowed 10 walks, but only two of those runners scored for earned runs.
But again, he’s guaranteed $38 million over three years. One bad month isn’t going to get him chased out of the rotation.
The Mike Montgomery “problem.”
In sports, and especially with the Cubs over the last few years, you hear the phrase “good problem” tossed around every now and then. With the Cubs, it’s usually applied to their having more capable position players than they can play. Now, it might be that they have more capable starters than a 2018 MLB team traditionally pitches—not that Joe Maddon is a man particularly bound to typical baseball conventions.
The timetable for Yu Darvish’s return from the DL is uncertain, but when he’s back, the Cubs will have to make a decision. One possible option is moving to a six-man rotation.
There are several benefits to using a six-man rotation, and frankly, I don’t know why more teams don’t know when they’re able. Sure, no one in your rotation is going to win 20 games that way, but who’s counting wins anymore anyway? Fewer innings for starters means fresher arms in October.
It means longer starts in the summer and a better-rested bullpen when it’s needed. It means Mike Montgomery—who has been dominant as a starter so far in 2018—gets to pitch every sixth day. And if that is ultimately an audition to trade him at the deadline, so be it.
It’s a “good” problem, but it’s a problem because it requires a decision—or a solution. And we’re likely to see what that solution will be in the coming weeks.
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The story of Yu Darvish’s return will likely be whether he can pitch well, but what happens in the margins with Chatwood and Montgomery could be equally consequential for the Chicago Cubs.