Call to the pen
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Seattle Mariners are in driver’s seat for second wild card

By Bobby Mueller

SEATTLE, WA - MAY 20: Jean Segura #2 celebrates of the Seattle Mariners points to the dugout after hitting a walk off single to defeat the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the eleventh inning during their game at Safeco Field on May 20, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - MAY 20: Jean Segura #2 celebrates of the Seattle Mariners points to the dugout after hitting a walk off single to defeat the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the eleventh inning during their game at Safeco Field on May 20, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /
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Seattle Mariners
SEATTLE, WA – MAY 20: Jean Segura #2 celebrates of the Seattle Mariners points to the dugout after hitting a walk-off single to defeat the Detroit Tigers 3-2 in the eleventh inning during their game at Safeco Field on May 20, 2018, in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images) /

With a great start and now an injury to their closest competitor for the second AL Wild Card spot, the Seattle Mariners control their destiny.

The Seattle Mariners are off to an incredible, and unexpected, start to the season. In the pre-season, they looked to be about a .500 team. They were on the periphery of the second wild card spot along with a handful of teams in the American League that included the Twins, Angels and Blue Jays.

It looked like Houston would take the AL West, Cleveland the AL Central, and Boston and New York would battle for the AL East. The loser of the Red Sox/Yankees skirmish would be the first wild card team. So far, the Yankees and Red Sox are doing what was expected of them. They are battling for the East, and the loser looks like the top wild card team. Cleveland started slowly but is pulling away in the Central, currently leading Detroit by five games.

The West is the surprising division in the AL. The Mariners lead Houston by a game, with the Angles sitting 4.5 games back. The M’s are also on a nice streak, having won six of their last seven and 10 of their last 13. They have the third-best record in baseball.

As good as the Seattle Mariners have been, there are some warning signs. Their run-differential is sixth in the league. Based on that run-differential, they “should” be 34-29 instead of 40-23. Also, a big part of their success has been a 20-9 record in games decided by one run. They’ve also benefitted from the Astros having an ugly 4-12 in one-run games.

If the standings were decided by run-differential, the Mariners would be 12 games behind the Astros and 1.5 behind the Angels. The good news for fans in the Emerald City is that MLB standings aren’t decided by run differential. Actual games won are what counts, and the Mariners have already banked 40 wins. You can’t take those away from them.

Going forward, it would be foolish to think the Mariners can continue to win nearly 70 percent of their one-run games. It could happen, but it’s not bloody likely. The good news is that they may not need to. At this point, even if they go .500 over the rest of the season, they’ll finish with roughly 90 wins.

I’m assuming Houston will ultimately win the AL West, which you can quibble with if you’d like. I think they’re the best team in the division and likely the best team in baseball. The team closest to the Mariners in the race for the second wild card is the Los Angeles Angels, currently 4.5 games behind the Mariners. If the Mariners go .500 from here on out, the Angels would have to go roughly .545 to catch them.

Unfortunately for the Angels, Shohei Ohtani just landed on the DL. It’s a huge bummer for baseball in general. Ohtani was exciting to watch both on the mound and at the plate. Baseball hasn’t seen a player like this since Babe Ruth 100 years ago. In 40 percent of the season, Ohtani was already worth 0.9 WAR as a hitter and 1.1 WAR as a pitcher (per Fangraphs).

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