AL Central: Previewing the MLB Trade Deadline roles for each team
With MLB trade deadline rumors kicking in earlier than normal, let’s take a look at what the roles for each AL Central team will be at the deadline
The MLB trade deadline typically spurs movement in July, but this year has started early. What position will each team in the AL Central take in the MLB trade deadline market (buyer, seller, undecided). We will examine each team in the division with what position they’ll take and then what pieces they could be trading or what holes they could be looking to fill.
While the American League boasts 7 teams over .500 right now, only one of them is in the AL Central. A team that is 5 games under .500 is currently making moves as if they have a legit shot at the divisional title.
In comparison, last season, the Cleveland Indians had the best record in the entire American League, and the Minnesota Twins were the second Wild Card team in the American League. Neither team was able to make it to the ALCS, so both are hoping to see better luck in their work this season.
Right now, the AL Central is a combined 48 games under .500 as we close in on halfway through the month of June. That will mean the division will likely be much more sellers than buyers, but there could always be intriguing options that are put out there and made available that a team in a “sell” mode ends up trading for simply to boost their roster for future seasons.
While there was perhaps one team still in limbo before Tuesday evening, news that came out Tuesday night definitely changed the outlook from “undecided” to “seller”, which makes the entire division certain in their spot, which is basically the only division in the game.
Let’s start with the current AL Central division leader, the Cleveland Indians…
Next: Cleveland
Cleveland Indians
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
After the Cleveland Indians used a record winning streak to put away the AL Central for good in 2017, they stormed to the best record in the American League. A disappointing loss to the Yankees in the ALDS ended their season far too early, but it exposed what many thought would be the Indians’ need this year, starting pitching.
Instead, the Indians lost one key member of their bullpen in Bryan Shaw, who was not the guy with the best numbers each season, but he had made 70 appearances or more in the bullpen every season since 2013, leading the majors in appearances in three of those seasons. While he’s not having that same success in 2018 in Colorado, the Cleveland bullpen desperately misses Shaw’s presence.
Even the top relievers that had long-time runs of success have struggled this season as Cody Allen has pitched to a 4.18 ERA, but has a FIP of 4.53, so it’s been even worse than that! Lefty relief ace Andrew Miller has put up a 4.40 ERA when he’s been healthy, which hasn’t been a lot this season, as he’s battled knee injuries.
Currently no pitcher with more than 10 innings pitched in the bullpen this season has posted an ERA under 3, whereas in 2017, 5 of the 6 most-utilized relievers pitched to an ERA under 3.
The Indians could also look at a couple of options for how to deal with the continued struggles of long-time Indian Jason Kipnis. Kipnis has put up a .198/.275/.306 line this season while not really giving the power/speed he’s been known for (4 HR, 2 SB). Internally, they could bring up Yandy Diaz and play him at third base while moving the uber-versatile Jose Ramirez to second base.
Who they could target
With Allen and Miller both free agents after this season along with a host of other key pieces (Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, Melky Cabrera, Zach McAllister), this is probably an “all-in” season for the Indians, meaning they’ll probably prefer grabbing upcoming free agents in the market over long-term signings.
The second base market for impending free agents could be a very inviting market, especially with former Indian Asdrubal Cabrera available. Many of the best options are on teams that will stay in the race, though, so it could be tough to pry many of them away. One player to keep an eye on is Josh Harrison in Pittsburgh, who does have a $10.5M 2019 option, but he is flexible enough to play in a few places with multiple spots open in the Indians outfield for 2019.
On the relief side, the Orioles could be a good trade partner, with Brad Brach and Zach Britton headlining their available players. There are really not a ton of other great lefty options out there to pick up, but a guy like Adam Ottavino of the Rockies could be another top target if the Rockies fall out of the race.
Let’s look next at their likely only divisional competition in the AL Central, the Twins…
Next: Minnesota
Minnesota Twins
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
It’s odd that a team 5 games under .500 would still strongly be in the “buyer” market, but the Twins are still only 5 games back of the Indians in the AL Central race, and with everything that’s gone wrong on their season so far, they can be excused for having some optimism that better days are ahead in 2018.
In 2017, many missed just how impressive the Twins were from August 1st to the end of the season simply because their AL Central cohort, the Indians, went on a massive winning streak that overshadowed their stellar play. However, seemingly every part of the Twins clicked after the trade deadline last year, pushing the team to the second Wild Card where the team put a good scare into the Yankees before the Yankee bullpen simply dominated once the Twins knocked out Yankees ace Luis Severino in the first inning.
This season seems to be playing out in a similar way with injuries to major pieces already in Jason Castro being out for the season and Joe Mauer struggling through concussion issues again. Byron Buxton has been plagued by a broken toe and putting up numbers reminiscent of his first half last season before he exploded in the second half of the year. Last, Miguel Sano has been absolutely lost at the plate and in the field, leading to plenty of speculation that he could end up sent to AAA.
The Twins added Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn in the offseason to the rotation, but to this point, Kyle Gibson‘s impressive season and the pitching of rookie Fernando Romero have been as important in the rotation. Ervin Santana has finally received positive news, and he should be back healthy for the second half of the season, which would be akin to acquiring a very good starter on the trade market.
The Twins brought in veteran bullpen pieces in Fernando Rodney, Addison Reed, and Zach Duke, and each has thrown very well, pitching to a 3.13, 3.03, and 3.13 ERA respectively. With the recent signing of Matt Belisle and the impressive depth of the minor league system in relief arms, the Twins should really be set in that area, a luxury most teams buying at the deadline definitely do not have.
Who they will target
With Castro under contract for 2019 and young Mitch Garver handling the starting role for now, the Twins would likely be in the market for a catcher that would be a free agent after the season. Veteran Bobby Wilson has played excellent defense thus far, but another option could certainly be acquired.
That could lead the Twins to a reunion with a former top prospect, once sent away on a midseason deal in Wilson Ramos. Ramos has been playing very well for Tampa Bay and is a free agent after the season, so he would fit as a likely starter alongside Garver. Another possible target would be Devin Mesoraco, who was traded recently to the Mets and has seen his bat take off, but the Mets may not be eager to move him with their catching depth hurt severely by injuries.
Getting Jorge Polanco back to the lineup should help with depth of the bench, but the Twins could pursue a guy like Asdrubal Cabrera to add depth to the infield.
Now, to the teams likely in a “sell” mode…
Next: Detroit
Detroit Tigers
MLB trade deadline role: Seller
Under new manager Ron Gardenhire, the Tigers had been playing better than most people had expected, currently sitting just a half game behind the Twins, who still certainly see themselves as buyers. However, the recent loss of Miguel Cabrera to a torn bicep most likely ends that thought and puts the team in full sell mode.
For a team entering a rebuild, the Tigers have some significant veteran contracts, with Cabrera’s big deal that still runs until 2023 guaranteed with another $154M guaranteed to him being the biggest. However, after moving Ian Kinsler in the offseason, the only veteran signed beyond 2018 is Jordan Zimmermann ($50M through 2020 remaining). That could allow the Tigers to be aggressive with multiple pieces that are either free agents after the season or may not be long-term pieces for the club.
Who they could move
His $18M salary is already tough enough to move, but with Victor Martinez hitting .238/.300/.338 at 39 years of age, it’s unlikely anyone will want to give him a role as DH for a contender. However, the next-highest-paid impending free agent, Jose Iglesias, could be of interest to a number of teams. He is not a premier offensive talent, but his defense is tremendous, and there are a number of teams that are currently in need of help or at least depth at shortstop as the deadline nears.
The Tigers picked up Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano to be veteran presence in what was expected to be a young rotation. That has worked better than anyone could have imagined, as they have pitched to a 4.01 and 3.90 ERA, respectively. Neither will likely be a guy heavily pursued as a playoff starter, but as a guy who could shore up a hurting rotation, either would help.
Where the Tigers could make some waves in the market is by moving veteran relievers Shane Greene and/or Alex Wilson. Both are still arbitration-eligible after this season, but with the success of some of the young arms in the bullpen this year, the Tigers could feasibly move either of them or both of them. Both have been quality relievers over the last couple of seasons, and Greene has been solid in the closer role recently for the last year and a half, which could fetch a premium on the market. Both are right handed, but they should still be able to fetch a decent return.
Now to the teams competing for the top pick in the 2019 draft…
Next: Chicago
Chicago White Sox
MLB trade deadline role: Seller
The White Sox had a look of a scrappy club that could possibly see some young players surprise and make a run at .500 this season, but instead a PED suspension to the starting catcher, a major injury to arguably the top offensive threat from 2017, and major blow-up issues in the young pitching has led to the White Sox hoping to avoid 100 losses this season more than worrying about .500.
The White Sox have wisely cleared off their payroll beyond 2018. This allows them the flexibility to possibly take on a bad contract in a deal in order to get premier prospects or absorb a bad 2018 contract to help a team avoid luxury tax issues.
With one of the best farm systems in the game already, the White Sox could be adding even more prospect depth during this year’s MLB trade deadline.
Who they could move
Many will see first baseman Jose Abreu as a prime trade candidate, as he makes $13M this season and should see that come near or clear $20M in his final year of arbitration after 2018. The issue with that idea is that few teams truly need a first baseman that are currently competing and have the room to take on Abreu’s salary.
While he’s not the grinder frontline starter that he was with the Royals and Rays, James Shields is having a solid season as he’s focused on creating weak contact, so he could be a solid back-end rotation piece for a team that simply needs to eat up innings. He does have an option for 2019, but it’s an affordable buyout.
The bullpen could be where the White Sox have some pieces of interest. With very few lefties available, Hector Santiago‘s ability to work as a swingman could bring something of value, even if he won’t bring in premium return. If Nate Jones hadn’t recently gotten hurt, he was really throwing very well. Joakim Soria is doing very well and has an option for 2019, so he could have a little more pull, even at 34 years old. Finally, Luis Avilan was picked up via trade this winter, and he’s posted a 3.26 ERA as a LOOGY this season.
Last, let’s take a look at the team in the AL Central cellar…
Next: Kansas City
Kansas City Royals
MLB trade deadline role: Seller
With many pieces of their teams that went to back-to-back World Series in 2014-2015 hitting free agency after the 2017 season, the Royals made one final effort in the 2017 season, coming up short, finishing 3rd place in the AL Central with an 80-82 record.
This season is a different story for sure. The Royals are 24 games under .500 and in last place. They’re 14 games behind the Indians in the AL Central already, and the Indians are by far the worst division leader right now.
That makes pretty much anything of value that isn’t bolted down in Kansas City more than available!
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Who they could move
Really, anyone could be moved, but some guys that could be of particular interest in the market would include backup catcher Drew Butera with many teams suffering in catching depth. Infielders Mike Moustakas and Whit Merrifield will certainly receive attention, though how willing the Royals will be to move either will be intriguing to watch, as they signed Moustakas to a 2-year deal this winter and saw Merrifield emerge as one of the best second basemen in the game in 2017, so they could want a premium package for the 29-year-old who has plenty of control remaining.
The Royals certainly couldn’t ask for closer Kelvin Herrera to have a better season when he may be the top relief arm available on the market. He’s currently working with a 1.05 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a crazy 2/22 BB/K ratio on the season as teams begin to look into the hard-throwing righty.
The other pitchers that the Royals would certainly like to make available to the market have had less encouraging seasons. Ian Kennedy (5.13 ERA), Jason Hammel (5.12), and Danny Duffy (5.28) would all carry interest of varying level on the trade market if they were performing up to expectations. Duffy is probably the biggest concern as he had flashed “ace” potential and could have potentially brought back an incredible package of players just this offseason, but now he has had the most struggles of any of the three this season.
Next: Does anyone want the AL Central?
The AL Central should be a division that has a pretty big impact on the MLB trade deadline. The Royals already made a move, sending outfielder Jon Jay to Arizona. Many more deals should be coming from this division!