In spite of narrative that lack of competition is the issue for declining MLB attendance, the National League has incredible parity this season and could have multiple exciting races!
Ever since the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros won World Series after participating in lengthy rebuilds, other teams have been trying to emulate their business model. Basically, these teams are accepting that they will be bad for a while, making minimal impactful transactions along the way, and then striking when they feel their young core is in place. While this strategy certainly has its merits, there is a sense that it has been responsible for decreasing parity across the MLB.
Fangraphs’ Travis Sawchik wrote an article titled “Two Million Baseball Fans Are Missing” this week and within it he speculated the decline in ticket sales for the MLB was attributed to the lack of competitive teams, especially in the American League. Here is an illuminating blurb from Sawchik in the article.
"“In fact, only six AL teams have double-digit odds of making the postseason as this contributor noted in the aforementioned piece. Four of them — the Astros, Indians, Red Sox, and Yankees — have a 97% chance or better of reaching the postseason. The other nine teams have a 5% probability or worse.”"
The American League has not been all that competitive this year. There are three super-teams (Red Sox, Yankees and Astros) and the Indians, which only have to be a slightly above-average team in the pitiful American League Central. As Sawchik stated later in his piece, the only playoff spot in flux is the second Wild Card between the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners. However, with the Angels losing Shohei Ohtani and a significant gap between them in the Mariners in the standings, even that race does not seem destined to be all that interesting.
It truly has become a league of have or have-nots, perpetuating the “MLB dwindling parity” narrative. With that said, there is considerable more parity in the National League, with ten teams having double-digit odds of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. Two-thirds of the NL have somewhat of a fighting chance to make the postseason. It would be even higher than that if one were to generously include the Pittsburgh Pirates, which have a 9.4% chance of squeaking into the postseason dance.
As of this writing, the NL East has three teams with double-digit playoff odds in the Washington Nationals (93.6%), Atlanta Braves (35.1%) and the Philadelphia Phillies (10.2%). The NL Central also has three teams, the Chicago Cubs (94.6%), Milwaukee Brewers (61.4%) and St. Louis Cardinals (46.3%). Finally, the NL West has a whopping four teams with the Los Angeles Dodgers (78.2%), Arizona Diamondbacks (45.9%), San Francisco Giants (11.2%) and the Colorado Rockies (10.0%).
Coming into the 2018 season, it seemed written in stone the Nationals, Cubs and Dodgers would win their respective division fairly handily. On June 16th, none of them are leading their division. Yes, all of those three teams will likely come out on top by season’s end but their lackluster starts, relative to expectation, have created a very competitive National League playoff race.
Six of those 10 teams with double-digit odds have at least a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs. That number is equal to the amount of AL teams with double-digit playoff odds. This starkly contradicts the growing perception that baseball is losing parity.
In fact, Fangraphs has playoff odds for teams going back to 2014. As such, we are able to compare how competitive the National League has been in years past.
- In 2017, there were eight teams with double-digit playoff odds on June 16th. Five of those had at least a 30 percent chance.
- In 2016, there were also eight teams with double-digit playoff odds on June 16th. Six of those had at least a 30 percent chance.
- In 2015, there were, again, eight teams with double-digit playoff odds on June 16th. Six of those had at least a 30 percent chance.
- In 2014, there were nine teams with double-digit playoff odds on June 16th. Seven of those had at least a 30 percent chance.
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Since Fangraphs has kept public records of playoff odds, the 2018 National League seems to be the most competitive over a five-year stretch. This begs the question: does Major League Baseball truly have a looming lack of parity issue?
Of course, the National League has been surprising in a lot of ways. The top teams are underperforming and teams (Braves, Phillies, and Brewers) are graduating from their rebuilds faster than expected. Baseball is so random and impossible to predict that it has kept this league captivating. Even looking to next year, it seems like many of these teams have the ability to compete.
The Nationals, even if they lose Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy, will project to be formidable with young studs Victor Robles and Juan Soto stepping into the limelight. The Cubs and Dodgers still have tremendous rosters with some money to spend on next year’s standout free agent class. Up-and-coming teams like the Braves, Phillies and Brewers all have young and talented rosters with financial flexibility. Even the St. Louis Cardinals have a strong, youthful roster which will benefit from not having Mike Matheny as manager (probably) next year. Right there, that is seven teams which appear to be imposing without an entire offseason to add and subtract.
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Sure, the American League has developed into a top-heavy league and projects to be one for the future. The National League, however, has been a free-for-all and, in a way, has balanced out the lack of parity in the AL. At the very least, the National League has been competitive in 2018. Moreover, there is no reason to think it is going to get less competitive in the distant future. That is good for baseball.
All playoff odds are from Fangraphs.