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Washington Nationals: Why is Bryce Harper struggling and is it hurting his value?

By Jacob Chatfield

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 07: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals looks on against the Chicago Cubs in the third inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 07: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals looks on against the Chicago Cubs in the third inning during game two of the National League Division Series at Nationals Park on October 7, 2017 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /
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Bryce Harper is in the midst of one of his career-worst slumps. With his highly anticipated free agency looming after this season, how far down is his value going?

Even the best players in baseball have off days, off weeks and sometimes offseasons. For one reason or another, the tools they rely on aren’t getting the expected results. Such is the case with Washington Nationals superstar Bryce Harper so far in 2018.

Since May 8th, Harper is hitting just .197. His wRC+ in the span is 83 while he’s striking out 32.9% of the time and walking in 8% of his plate appearances. While his inability to put the ball is hurting him, there might be more at play for the former MVP.

Same approach, new results

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Like most hitters, Harper tends to hit the ball toward the pull side more than anywhere else. In 2018, he’s pulling balls in play 45.7% of the time—not significantly different from his 45.4% pull rate in his 2015 MVP campaign. His hard contact rate has increased and soft has decreased. So why is his BABIP .212 in 2018 when it was .369 with the same formula in 2015?

It’s the shift. The sabermetric driven strategy to realign the infield based on hitters’ tendencies has continued to gain prevalence in recent years. It’s already claimed the career of Ryan Howard. Now it’s Bryce Harper’s turn to make an adjustment or accept regression.

In his 290 plate appearances this season, the opponents shifted on him 166 times—that’s 57.2%. In 2015, he was only shifted on 115 times all season, 18.3% of the time.

The league has learned where the ball goes when Harper hits it so now balls that Harper used to roll into the outfield grass are finding leather. If Harper doesn’t start to fight the shift—either by hitting the other way or even bunting for base hits—his struggles might continue.

Lights brighter in a contract year

Harper’s impending free agency was already one of the top baseball stories this past offseason. The circumstances surrounding it have never been seen before.

He’ll be 26 and have had previously been an MVP winner with several other years of MLB success. But all of a sudden he looks barely above replacement level. How many years and dollars is it taking off his upcoming contract?

It’s impossible to say for certain, especially since he has more baseball this season ahead of him than behind him, but his slumping is certainly hurting his value. If he ended the season with the numbers he has now, it’d be difficult for any front office to justify signing him to the $400 million some have speculated he’ll get.

Next: MLB Trade Deadline: Previewing the AL East

Bryce Harper has been struggling against the shift in 2018. If he doesn’t turn it around by the end of the season, his expected mammoth contract won’t be quite as big as he hopes.

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