Phillies arms waiting in the wings
While some Phillies fans micro-evaluate certain players and situations, general manager Matt Klentak doesn’t make knee-jerk moves because a starter had consecutive bad outings at a top organizational level.
Top guns:
Despite the Philadelphia Phillies having rotation replacements with eye-popping numbers for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the red pinstripes, barring unforeseen events, won’t promote them during the first half. However, opportunities will be available when time runs out here on struggling hurlers.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Veterans get priority in the training room and better parking, but there is not a whole lot of difference in terms of how they’re treated in the competition for playing time. To me it doesn’t matter if a guy is a 10-year veteran or a rookie. If the rookie is better, he finds his way onto the field.” – Brendan Daly
While every franchise has 15 slots on the 40-man roster besides the active 25, they include roughly 10 of their top prospects like right-hander Drew Anderson, a flamethrower. Last year, for instance, Klentak had more youngsters than his four remaining spots. One went to Seranthony Dominguez.
Unlike the new fan favorite, most minor leaguers receive advancement to the next plateau after the first or second half. But Dominguez is a rare exception, not the norm.
Holding out hope for a trade, the faithful have two strikes against them. Firstly, the Phils must be in the hunt after the toughest third of their schedule ends on July 1, and Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez or Nick Pivetta must require a replacement other than ones with Lehigh Valley.
On the other hand, Cole Hamels, 34, would be a perfect fit if he was the dominant ace from 2015. But he’s not! And keep in mind, the asking price will probably be a top prospect and the $13.5 million remaining on his contract. However, he could slot third on the staff for two months.
The main competition for Hamels could come from the Atlanta Braves, the Seattle Mariners and the St. Louis Cardinals because they also are clubs he can’t block a trade to. Yes, other teams may have interest, but they might have to exercise his option for 2019: $20 million instead of the $6 million buyout. An additional $14 million!
Keep in mind, the plan was to form a rotation from the acquired pitchers and the farm system. And that includes five starters on the IronPigs: Ben Lively, Tom Eshelman, Enyel De Los Santos, Cole Irvin –the only southpaw– and Anderson. But remember, Jerad Eickhoff won’t be on the disabled list indefinitely.
First in line:
Evaluating the five-man staff, armchair GMs usually decide after a recent start or two on borderline moundsman. But the difference to management is three excellent performances by, for example, Pivetta reveals confidence, but the first poor outing can dim his self-assuredness and temporarily head him in the wrong direction.
Since a 12-day layoff might have influenced two trying appearances by Eflin after May 19, he has bounced back in June with a 3-0 record and a 1.93 ERA. However, he is still 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA overall. On the other hand, the righty has inflated his ERA in past campaigns by trying to pitch through injuries.
As for Velasquez, he’s had nine good performances out of 14: four bad and one so-so. In fact, he has only had one poor outing out of his last eight and allowed 10 of the 20 earned runs in that one start. But his detractors have that failed appearance as a reason to move him to the pen, minors or another organization.
Recently, Pivetta has dropped to the rotation’s bottom rung, as he went from a 3.26 ERA to a 4.25 ERA. He has allowed 13 earned runs in 14 innings for an 8.36 June ERA. Granted, he has vastly improved with more good performances (eight) to now six clunkers.
Before you look to the Allentown affiliate for his replacement, Pivetta could have until Eickhoff is ready to return. But the finesse hurler might need a month to rehab and will probably be back near July’s end.
If the Phillies have six starters for five spots, one could play a critical role in the relief corps. In other words, Dominguez can’t pitch the tough frames, the ninth inning and every day. A surprise is possible!
Young lions:
Among the Triple-A hopefuls, some familiar names will receive performance-based consideration. One is Lively. Basically, he’s only had one so-so outing out of seven, and he gave up four runs (all earned) over six frames in that one. But he also had three clunkers in his five Phillies’ appearances.
Last summer, many knowledgeable fans concluded Eshelman based on stats was ready for a promotion. But Klentak did not prematurely burn a roster slot for him: He decided instead to wait until 2018’s second half. Unfortunately, the right-hander is 1-6 with a 7.09 ERA and only four good performances out of 13. He may not even get a 40-man spot.
Until a recent start, Anderson had a 3.33 ERA, but it is now 4.15 due to a debacle recording only eight outs. Finally, he went past the sixth inning in his last outing by retiring 23 batters. But he entered ’18 along with Eshelman as the favorites to advance to the majors in mid-July.
For 2018, left-hander Irvin is 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA. He’s had nine solid outings out of 13 and seven of his last eight: 7-1, 54 2/3 frames, nine earned runs and a 1.48 ERA. But because he won’t need roster protection until after the ’19 campaign, Klentak won’t burn a 40-man spot. One less slot could affect Eshelman.
Fortunately, De Los Santos has earned and qualifies for an overall-40 spot during this 162. And he is the most likely candidate to advance from the IronPigs to the Phillies. Moreover, he is 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA and has had only one so-so game out of 12 starts. But remember, some locals weren’t happy about losing Freddy Galvis for him.
Even if Pivetta or Eickhoff can handle the rotation’s fifth slot, De Los Santos could still join the red pinstripes if they are within striking distance of the second wild card. But it will also depend on Edubray Ramos or Luis Garcia to be the ninth-inning fireman. If they can’t do it, who can? De Los Santos?
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies’ expectation comparison through June 17 (bad percentage should be 20 percent or lower):
Phillies starters’ bad percentage:
- Eflin: 5 good and 1 so-so of 8 total for 25.0%
- Velasquez: 9 good and 1 so-so of 14 total for 28.6%
- Pivetta: 8 good and 0 so-so of 14 total for 42.9%
- Lively: 2 good and 0 so-so of 5 total for 60.0%
IronPigs starters’ bad percentage:
- De Los Santos: 11 good and 1 so-so of 12 total for 0.0%
- Irvin: 9 good and 3 so-so of 13 total for 7.7%
- Lively: 6 good and 1 so-so of 7 total for 0.0%
- Anderson: 3 good and 2 so-so of 7 total for 28.6%
- Eshelman: 4 good and 3 so-so of 13 total for 46.2%
Phillies’ stats through June 17:
- Eflin, 24: 8 Gms., 44 2/3 Inn., 4-2, a 3.43 ERA, a 3.06 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP, a 3.58 SIERA, a 1.1 fWAR and a 1.14 WHIP.
- Velasquez, 26: 14 Gms., 74 Inn., 5-7, a 4.74 ERA, a 3.53 FIP, a 3.53 xFIP, a 3.45 SIERA, a 1.4 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Pivetta, 25: 14 Gms., 72 Inn., 4-6, a 4.25 ERA, a 3.09 FIP, a 3.43 xFIP, a 3.43 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Lively, 26: 5 Gms., 23 2/3 Inn., 0-2, a 6.85 ERA, a 5.07 FIP, a 5.06 xFIP, a 4.66 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.86 WHIP.
Stats through June 17:
- Hamels, 34.5: 14 Gms., 85 1/3 Inn., 3-6, a 3.69 ERA, a 5.35 FIP, a 4.23 xFIP, a 4.08 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
IronPigs’ stats through June 17:
- De Los Santos, 22.5: 12 Gms., 73 1/3 Inn., 7-3, a 1.47 ERA, a 3.28 FIP, a 3.46 xFIP and a 1.01 WHIP.
- Irvin, 24.5: 13 Gms., 82 2/3 Inn., 8-2, a 2.50 ERA, a 3.42 FIP, a 3.24 xFIP and a 1.03 WHIP.
- Lively, 26: 7 Gms., 41 1/3 Inn., 2-2, a 2.18 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, a 3.69 xFIP and a 1.04 WHIP.
- Anderson, 24: 7 Gms., 34 2/3 Inn., 3-2, a 4.15 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, a 3.92 xFIP and a 1.10 WHIP.
- Eshelman, 24: 13 Gms., 59 2/3 Inn., 1-6, a 7.09 ERA, a 5.70 FIP, a 4.38 xFIP and a 1.91 WHIP.
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